Prediction Changed
3:47 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Calgary Northeast
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Ahmad, Abeed Monty
Blanchard, Daniel
New Democratic
Dey, Vinay
Kang, Sanam S.
No Affiliation
Richard, Roger
Shory, Devinder

Art Hanger

2006 Result:
Art Hanger **
Jaswinder S. Johal
Tyler Ragan
Trung Nguyen
Ron Sanderson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 08 Daniel Kubik
This was the best shot anyone had of putting a hole in the Alberta Conservative sea of blue (sort of). Richard represents a disillusioned faction of local Conservatives bitter over an acrimonious nomination race. For a while, it looked like Richard might have had a real shot, but a court ruling on his campaign signs suggested he was trying to deceive voters into believing he was the official Conservative candidate; he was humiliated and had to put stickers on the signs.
Even with his Conservative credentials, Richard was always an outside shot. With the court ruling I'd say it's more likely for a party from the left to run up the middle than it is for Richard to win; and I'd say it's more likely that Jack Layton will win the election than either of those things will happen.
08 09 25 Karl Smyth
The Conservative candidate may be new but the result will be the same on election night. Easy Conservative hold.
08 03 26 R.O.
The conservatives have found a new candidate to replace Art Hanger who is not running again. Devinder Shory won a highly competitive nomination and will be the next conservative candidate he was running against Perry Cavanagh for the nomination.
08 01 31 John Johnson
As was mentioned previously Art Hanger will not be running again, but this is Calgary, a dog could run here for the Conservatives and win.
07 12 10 A.S.
Thanks to an Indo-Canadian candidate of some profile, the Liberals actually garnered their best Calgary result here last time--but with the anachronistic Art Hanger gone, there may be less motivation to vote thusly now...
07 11 01 Buhay
Hanger just announced last month that he would be resigning the seat. But as I said in a previous post, whoever wins the Tory nomination here will win the seat.
BTW, according to sources close to the Hanger's party, the person most like to win the Tory nomination is someone who comes from the same demographic as 30-40% of the riding, an Indo-Canadian conservative.
07 10 18 Dr Ursidae & Prof Primate
So now we're, ‘far left socialists and liberal hacks’. Last electionprediction-go-round we were accused by several of being conservative hacks. All that's left now is to be called Quebec seperatists, liberaltarians and supporters of the marajuana party. Thank you for the good laugh (we've told a number of our friends who were all amused) but let's set the record straight, shall we? We've never said on this site how we have voted, nor will we do that. What we can tell you is that in the last election we both voted for different parties and prior to '04, had never voted for the same party twice. Hardly partisans. Admittedly we have made strong comments of and have made fun at some conservative predictions. Then again we have done that for all parties. When we feel a prediction is silly, we're going to say so! But to see where this notion that we think, ‘Calgary is a bastion of redneck ignoramuses who don't know anything about anyone else’, might have come from, we checked our postings from previous electionprediction-go-rounds. We admit to referring to the CPC as appearing as a party of knuckle-draggers or filled with Yosemite Sam types, but this is not in indicative of the Calgary caucus (or even the Alberta caucus). We can name many who fit this bill from other provences INCLUDING Ontario. Such appearances are less evident as of late (and you'll note we have not said anythign to that effect recently) as Harper has done an excellent job reigning in this element of the party. Of the Calgary caucus we have admitted to not liking Kenney but at the same time we have praised Ablonzy and Prentice, as we think they are both excellent MPs and cabinet ministers. Now as for the city of Calgary, we happen to both have immediate family in the city (in C-East, C-Nose Hill and C-SouthWest BTW) and are there several times a year. We are very aware about the growing cosmopolitan nature of the city. None-the-less talk to some old stock Albertans (we have on many ocassions), you'll find that many have some out-dated opinions about a lot issues. Newer Albertans from elsewhere tend to dilute this somewhat.
As for our prediction for this riding, pretty easy: CPC + Alberta = win (we believe Nick J Boragina posted that equation somewhere)
07 09 16 Buhay
Coming from Ottawa and then Vancouver, I've been surprised by just how ethnically diverse this part of the city is (my new riding). In Ontario, we're inundated about how Calgary is a bastion of redneck ignoramuses who don't know anything about anyone else. It's a myopia that you read on this site quite a bit from far left socialists and liberal hacks (and yes I'm talking about ursidae and primates).
So when I went to vote at the provincial conservative leadership race, I did a double take seeing that very few white people were there voting. There were lots of Conservative voters but there were Indians (of Sikh and Muslim background I think) Africans, Chinese and a lot of other people.
Calgary is a growing city and getting many people from all over the world. But just like many Calgarians, these new immigrants share the conservative (small c) values that have make this city so successful.
With that kind of support on the provincial level, Hanger, or any other Tory, will have no problems in the next election.
07 04 05 Angry Ontarian
This is the City of Calgary. No chance of Liberals winning here. CPC win; end of story.

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