Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Calgary East

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:19:00

Constituency Profile


Brown, Al

Devine, Jason

Milton, Scott W.

Obhrai, Deepak

Petrunic, Josipa

Deepak Obhrai

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • calgary-east (183/186 Polls)
  • calgary-southeast (25/208 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 17 Gil Bert
    There is very little motivation for the Conservatives in this riding. On the other hand the Liberal candidate is vibrant, young and in touch with social media. If the twitterbugs get out and vote this riding could be a huge upset for the Conservatives. Lawn sign counts support this conclusion.
    11 04 15 JC
    This is probably going Conservative, but still it's worth mentioning how evasive and frankly low class Deepak Obhrai's tactics have been. He's ignored everyone.
    11 04 14 s. gainsbourg
    Calgary East is shaping up to be the most interesting Calgary race since the battle in the 2000 federal election over Calgary Centre. There has been a lot of bad blood spilled between the 14 year Conservative incumbent, Deepak Obhrai, and the Liberal challenger, Josipa Petrunic.

    The reasons why I think this will be a closer race that in previous years are because of the recent antics of the Conservative incumbent, and the strong credentials and exceptionally high level of energy that the Liberal challenger is exhibiting thus far.

    In March of this year (before the election was called), Obhrai called Calgary's airport tunnel project ‘foolish and delusional’ -- a serious setback to Calgary's hopes of securing federal support for this major project, something that local officials and citizens had been seeking for years. Shortly after the election was called, Obhrai refused to participate in local all-candidate debates, stating that he does not wish to debate ‘a Liberal from Toronto’ (Petrunic), going on to say that she is ‘just visiting’ the riding.

    The conservative Calgary Herald has blasted Obhrai with multiple scathing editorials, first over the airport tunnel comments, pointing out that soon after Obhrai's comments, Harper announced a 21.6 million dollar pledge for Quebec City's airport, while Calgary still gets nothing. Subsequent editorials condemned Obhrai for his attacks on Petrunic, pointing out that she was born and raised in the riding, and although employed as a post-doctoral researcher by the University of Toronto, she in fact does her work at the University of Calgary campus. Obhrai has responded to these editorials with continued bluster in letters to the Herald and on his Twitter feed, and is even raising eyebrows among some of his long-time supporters this campaign.

    Petrunic is taking a wise approach, combatting voter apathy in the riding, as Calgary East has had an abysmally low voter turnout % in the past several elections (well below the national average). She has roots in the riding, and comes from a working class background, which can work well here seeing how Calgary East is the poorest riding in the city. She young yet seems connected with local issues and is putting up the strongest fight that I’ve seen from a Calgary candidate in many years.

    Even former Stephen Harper advisor Tom Flanagan has confessed that Calgary East (along with Calgary Centre-North) represent the Liberal's best chances of picking up seats in Calgary. The million dollar question of course being ‘can voter apathy (particularly among young adults) in the Tory stronghold of Calgary be broken?’
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    This is a rather urban and ethnic riding which in most places would mean a Liberal win or at least a competitive one. But this is Calgary which means solidly Tory. And despite the Tories heavily target ethnic voters, that is more in the GTA and GVRD as based on past results it appears most voters in Calgary (immigrant or Canadian born) vote Tory.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. There is no perfect storm in sight to move any Calgary riding away from the “solidly Conservative column any time soon.

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