Prediction Changed
3:47 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Calgary East
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Coates, Nathan David
Devine, Jason
Kennedy, Bernie
Obhrai, Deepak
New Democratic
Vaughan, Ian

Deepak Obhrai

2006 Result:
Deepak Obhrai **
Dobie To
Patrick Arnell
John Mark Taylor
Jason Devine
Ghazanfar Khan

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06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 02 28 A.S.
Obhrai was, in fact, the first real 905-style ‘ethnic’ Reformer in Alberta in 1997 (while also of colour, Rahim Jaffer's scarcely ‘905-style’--and there was also Gurmant Grewal in BC). Ethnicity aside, Calgary East is a little like Edmonton East in being relatively non-affluent and, were Calgary more like Edmonton, a suitable target for either Liberal or NDP. But Calgary's not more like Edmonton.
07 09 24 Nick J Boragina
There is more to the story here then just ‘Alberta+CPC=Win’. Remember that Obhrai was one of the few ‘ethnic’ MP’s the Alliance had. The reason for that is not what you’d expect. I’ve found anecdotal evidence that many right-wing immigrants pack their bags and leave for Calgary. The immigrant community here is naturally inclined to support the CPC. Despite all of that, it IS true, that Alberta+CPC=Win. And hence, this riding will go Tory once more.
07 04 05 Angry Ontarian
This is the City of Calgary. No chance of Grits winning here. Tories win; end of story.

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