Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:18:00

Constituency Profile


Andreychuk, Kash

Breitkreuz, Garry

Hughes, Elaine

Ottenbreit, Douglas

Garry Breitkreuz

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • saskatoon-humboldt (15/180 Polls)
  • yorkton-melville (181/181 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 17 C.A.B.
    Reform actually won here in 1993, and in 1997, incumbent Garry Breitkreuz won an absolute majority of the vote. He's improved his share in each subsequent election. The NDP collapse was so complete here that they've never even feigned a comeback attempt. Indeed, under Layton, they've failed to match even their 25% tally from 1997. As for the Liberals, not only did they lose their deposit last time, but they came in fourth. This seat is about a safe a bet for the Tories as it gets.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    This was once an NDP stronghold and ironically their current MP Garry Breitkreuz was once an NDP supporter despite the fact he is now one of the more right wing Tory members. He is a strong advocate of scrapping the gun registry and entrenching property rights in the constitution which may not sell well in downtown Toronto, but are quite popular here. Since 1993 he has increased his vote in every election. Although with 68% in the last election, the question is has he maxed out or will he still continue to increase his vote share.
    09 10 15 MF
    There is no more striking example of how ?prairie populism? has shifted from left to right than Yorkton-Melville. Represented by Lorne Nystrom for years, Garry Breitkreuz (then a Reformer) came out on top in a three-way battle in '93 - and has been invincible ever since, taking nearly 70% of the vote in the last election. Breitkreuz is best known for his opposition to the gun registry - which plays well in this socially conservative riding.
    09 08 24 EP
    With the NDP becoming more and more of an urban party, it cedes its traditional territory in rural Saskatchewan ridings like this one. This leaves the Conservative Party with no competition. Unless a regional dissent party appears and starts to field federal candidates, this rural Saskatchewan riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.

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