Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:18:00

Constituency Profile


Moore, Darien

Setyo, Shawn

Walker, Deborah J.

Yelich, Lynne

Hon. Lynne Yelich

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • blackstrap (169/169 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 22 Billy P.
    Absolute no-brainer. Electoral boundaries have been nicely arranged in Saskatoon so that their are no truly city seats, thereby ensuring PC wins.
    11 04 11 Tony Ducey
    Yelich holds on here, look for her to get a higher role in the government if the CPC are re-elected.
    11 04 09 C.A.B.
    The Liberals did very well here in 2004, with over 30% of the vote, just ten points behind Yelich - so, in the hypothetical situation with the sponsorship scandal never happening, and Paul Martin winning over 200 seats and about 50% of the vote, this would likely be one of their seats. Of course, that didn't happen, and Yelich won comfortably in both 2006 and 2008, winning the latter election with 54% of the vote, 28 points ahead of the second-place in the NDP. And of course, she's now in cabinet, which is just the icing on the cake.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    This has gone for the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives since 1997 and I don't see this changing. The urban portion is split between the urban core which will go NDP and the suburban portions favouring the Tories, however the massive margins in the rural sections while just seal this for the Tories.
    09 09 07 Scott D
    Despite some strong candidates from other parties in previous elections the Conservative party has been able to consistently grow both their popular vote and percent of the vote since the 2004 election. Without a major controversy before or during the election Blackstrap will likely remain a strong Conservative seat.
    09 08 24 EP
    With the NDP becoming more and more of an urban party, it cedes its traditional territory in rural Saskatchewan ridings like this one. This leaves the Conservative Party with no competition. Unless a regional dissent party appears and starts to field federal candidates, this rural Saskatchewan riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.

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