Prediction Changed
1:27 PM 13/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Ehmann, Deb
New Democratic
Gieni, Patti
Pallagi, Imre
Yelich, Lynne

Lynne Yelich

2006 Result:
Lynne Yelich **
Don Kossick
Herta Barron
Mike Fornssler
D.-Jay Krozser
Sonje Kristtorn

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 Daryl
Expect a comfortable Conservative win here - they won by over 7000 votes last time. Support in the rural areas is solid for them, and there's enough urban votes to give them the seat. The NDP will place second, reflecting a recent poll that shows them a close second to the Conservatives provincially.
08 10 07 billy
No contest in this seat. All candidates are weak and with plenty of rural territory in the riding, the PC's could run a dead person here and win.
08 07 20 John
Expect Lynne Yelich to win because of the rural support for the Conservative party. Yelich is not a strong candidate or Member of Parliament but despite those draw backs she is seen as extremely friendly and somebody who voters feel safe in supporting. The NDP may have an outside chance but it would take a major slip up by the Conservatives for this to occure. The Liberals are somewhat visible being in the pride parade and holding a lacklustre bbq with a poor showing which can easily be linked to the weak organization and inexperienced campaign team the candidate has.
07 12 09
Patti Gieni will definitely do better than people expect, still, despite how left-wing Saskatoon is (it is), the rural areas of this riding are staunch CPC, and the new suburbs in this riding with probably have a significant CPC vote, enough to ensure CPC victory.
07 09 25 Christopher
I think Patti Gieni will do far better for the NDP than people might expect. Conservative popularity is down in SK and Patti has personal popularity in the rural part of the riding and credibility on the environment. Even so there's a big gap to close if she hopes to unseat Lynn Yelich from this seat.
07 09 15
Lynne Yellich has been a fairly solid and visible MP in this riding, so I think she will be re-elected. She is also on the ‘doorstep’ of a cabinet position, meaning that since the CPC lacks female cabinet ministers, if ever Harper wanted to add another female in for better representation, Yellich would be a viable and competent choice.
07 06 26 SaskPhoenix
I am not going to make a prediction as of now, but with the way things are looking for the Saskatchewan Conservative MPs over the broken equalization promises, their re-election chances have become weaker. If Premier Calvert and public opinion continue against the Tories, the urban Tory MPS could be turfed out by angry voters on election day.
07 04 10 M. Lunn
Lynne Yelich should easily re-take this simply because this includes a large chunk of rural area which tends to be very conservative. At the same time I think the Tories could face some trouble in other ridings if the Liberals and NDP as they say make the Canadian Wheat Board a major issue. Both parties seem to feel this issue will really hurt the Tories, since although the Conservative policy on the CWB is very popular in Alberta, it is not in Saskatchewan or Manitoba. That being said considering how massively the Tories won the rural parts and the fact they even finished ahead in the urban parts, I cannot see this issue being enough to cause Lynne Yelich to lose her seat, although it may cost her votes.
07 04 09 A.S.
Technically, this riding has never gone left wing before because it didn't really exist before 1997's Sask electoral boundary transformations. But most if not all of its constituent parts (including, of course, SE Saskatoon) were part of federal NDP constituencies as recently as 1988; so, it's a deceptive claim to make. Still, speaking of the present day, given how much ground the NDP and Grits have to recover elsewhere in Sask, Blackstrap's relatively low in the pecking order; and those two ‘left wing’ parties would wind up cancelling themselves out, anyway...
07 04 07
Lynne Yelich will have little problem getting re-elected here. She's been MP for several years now, is well known, and has taken post as a parliamentary secretary. She won by a 7000+ vote margin and almost captured 50% of the vote. Besides, this riding has never gone left wing before.

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