Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:48 AM 6/23/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:58 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Don Kossick
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Lynn Oliphant
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Tiffany Paulsen
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Clayton Sundberg
Lynne Yelich

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Blackstrap (100.0%)
Lynne Yelich

2000 Result/Résultats:
15,871 44.29%
9,437 26.33%
8,109 22.63%
1,908 5.32%
511 1.43%

(169/169 polls, 55045/55045 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 MP
Email: [hidden]
The NDP consistently advise that they will have support throughout the riding. This is not necessarily true. First, while the NDP candidate has been a community leader, he was voted out of the Saskatoon council in the largest municipal turnout in many years. Paulsen was not even challenged, the only one to win by acclamation. As for her leadership skills, she has been listed as one of the top women leaders in the province. In the rural areas, it is hard to find people who would support the NDP provincially, and they hold this resentment to the federal party, as they link themselves again and agian. In the rural areas, the race is between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Likely one of the only posters from that area in the constituency, I believe I would understand this more than others. Plus, as rural people are more likely to vote, the NDP are hitting their shortcomings. Yelich is a respectable competitor, but as the polls are favouring the Liberals in Saskatchewan more and more, Paulsen has the better chance.
20/06/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
The Green party will get some votes from some people who would normally vote NDP, but not enough to make a difference in winning this riding. The social Conservatives will mostly stick with the CP, some will go to the CHP, but probaly not enough to make a difference. I laugh at the fact Paulsen was probaly the first Liberal to go to a Harper rally and heckel him. Can you say desperate. The Conservative party is at 56% in Saskatchewan, and this is one of those ridings which that number will have a helping hand in re-electing a Conservative MP.
Just like the person who just predicted a Liberal win said. The Conservative incumbent is a very good MP and lets the people in the riding know what is going on. People in the riding respect a MP which acually works for them, and I don't think anytime soon they will get rid of such a good MP.
20/06/04 Hack
Email: [hidden]
I don't believe that Yelich is as strong a candidate as some think. The latest flier I got from her was about high tuition costs but said nothing about what she would do to change this. Much of her materials seem to be photo ops she has had around the city. She has no individual record to run on and that may hurt her. Paulson is a respected member of city council, but it's unclear if that will be enough to overcome the anti-Liberal sentiment. Voters in this riding may vote NDP just to send a message that they don't approve of Martin but are offended by Stephen Harper's apparent abandonment of farm families. I think that this one should be in the Too Close to Call catergory.
20/06/04 Billy Post
At the election call, I thought this was a Liberal gain, with a high profile,popular candidate running against the rural Reform incumbent, however as this campaign has progressed, I feel that there is momentum towards the Conservatives. Yelich will take all of the rural vote and enough of the city portion to win. She won't get my vote, but this prediction is coming from the head, not the heart.
Email: [hidden]
The conservative incumbent is a widely respected individual. She usually sends out information which is generally helpful, and has not been known for controvercial issues. However, she does not have any newer ideas for the constituency. Status quo or lower taxes are not the only thing that people, whether in rural or urban areas, have been looking for. They need to know that she is in touch with the businesses in the area, such as Poundmaker or Big Sky. Tiffany Paulsen, with the upcoming visit of Bob Spellar to Poundmaker, has captured the attention of the rural people inthe area, which only adds to her foothold in Saskatoon as a prominent and strong individual.
11/06/04 Kip Luce
Email: [hidden]
I know I just wrote in, but I have three brief points to add:
1. On second thought, Don Kossick won't lose many votes to the Greens as he is as Green as they come. (check out his recycled vegetable oil bio-diesel fuel burning car)
2. With social-conservatism making headlines look for the hardcore pro-life/anti-abortionist, and anti-gay marriage voters to be dissapointed with the Conservative party's stance on these issues. In a tight race, a few, otherwise Conservative, votes for the CHP might make all the difference.
3. I know this riding is supposed to be a 3 way race, but you can't say the momentum is with Paulsen and the Liberals at this point
08/06/04 Kip Luce
Email: [hidden]
I think this will be close one. The incumbant is no political star, but will probably take a good chunk of the rural vote. On the other hand Don Kossick is a well known (in the city at least) community leader and will looks good to take a good chunk of the urban vote. The outcome will be decided by how well the incumbant can answer the old what have you done for me lately, as well as by how well the NDP candidate will fare outside of Saskatoon. Also the Conservatives have the Greens (they don't look as far out as they used to, and voter alienation has never been so high) in their corner, as they will skim a few votes off the NDP.
05/06/04 Anonymous
Email: [hidden]
This is as blue a riding as they come. Plus, Yelich is a non-contreversial candidate. Paulsen recently embarassed herself at a Stephen Harper function, and in a city as small as Saskatoon, word gets around.
Tory hold.
02/06/04 HAS
Email: [hidden]
Conservative hold. The urban portion of this seat will split three ways but the rural (Yelich is from the rural) will go solid Blue and send this lady back to Ottawa.
No way will the liberals win this one. Paulsen is not the brightest candle on the cake. Anyone who meets her on the doorstep will have trouble seeing her as MP. The city will be a three way race. The country two way (ndp-con). The word liberal still has four letters in rural saskatchewan
27/05/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
"Most of this riding is NDP provincially. Plus this riding went NDP in 1988, and I see many parallels between this election and 1988, at least for the NDP (same polling numbers). What this adds up to is an NDP victory. Lynne Yelich has one term under her belt anyway."
Simply because this riding is NDP provincially does not make it automatically a NDP seat federally. A large number of NDP voters provincially do not vote NDP federally. This riding is staying Conservative.
25/05/04 JCM
I expect Lynne Yelich to win this seat again quite easily. The rural portion of Blackstrap is quite right-wing. If the rural turnout is high, Yelich will have no trouble carrying this seat a second time.
19/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
This is traditional NDP territory. It will be a close race between the Conservatives and the NDP. We have to look at a few things first. The NDP has increased its popularity in Saskatchewan, as well as across the country. 20% seems to be the winnable range for the NDP (numbers from the last election). Most of this riding is NDP provincially. Plus this riding went NDP in 1988, and I see many parallels between this election and 1988, at least for the NDP (same polling numbers). What this adds up to is an NDP victory. Lynne Yelich has one term under her belt anyway.
19/05/04 CC
Email: [hidden]
The riding has good NDP support but the high profile Liberal candidate will cause left-wing vote splitting causing a Conservative win.
07/05/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
The Liberals are going to go from placing third in the election results, to winning this riding, even though they are at record lows in the polls? Not very likely. This riding is going to stay Conservative. Though I would love to see a link or something to when Lynne Yelich said she does not do door knocking.
28/04/04 Nikki
Email: [hidden]
Tiffany Paulsen is a terrific City Councillor in Saskatoon. Her high profile and well-known work ethic will help her steal this seat from the Alliance. The NDP have a low profile, extremely left wing candidate that won't be able to capture the votes of mainstream voters. The Alliance candidate says she doesn't door knock - laziness won't get her anywhere with Blackstrap voters. It's time for a hard working Member of the Government to be our voice in Ottawa - I predict a Liberal win in this one!
06/04/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
I don't think that the Saskatoon riding predictions make much sense. Of the four ridings, this is not the most solid for the Conservatives, yet it is the one that is being predicted. I think that the campaign itself will be important (that the urban vote is fluid as indicated by the recent Leger poll) and that it is possible for either the Conservatives or the NDP to sweep all four of the ridings. I also think that the election could work out that the Liberals could win as many as three of them. Having worked in many federal elections in Saskatoon in the past, I have learned that predicting the outcome half way through the election is difficult most of the time. I suspect that the "Martin" Liberals will take away many Conservative votes in Southeast Saskatoon. I believe that the NDP vote in the rural areas will be higher than last time (partially due to redistribution). I think this riding will be close.
30/03/04 Trent
Email: [hidden]
I think that the Conservatives are probably in front, but I think that If anyone is going to knock off Yelich, it would be the Liberal candidate Tiffany Paulsen who will take it. Part of this riding went Liberal in 1993, and she is a popular city councillor who was aclaimed this fall in the civic election whereas Kosick lost. However, the problem with this riding along with many others in SK is that it is a Rurban riding which allows the conservative candidate to win the rural area easily, and a split between all three in the city.
29/03/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
I just made a visit to the rural part of this riding. The political landscape is not the same as last federal election. The Conservative vote is down and the NDP vote has solidified. I believe that the Liberal vote might collapse in the province which would throw all urban ridings into question as that vote is much more likely to go NDP in Saskatchewan than to the Conservatives. Similarly, given that Harper has been elected leader of the Conservatives, if the election goes badly for the NDP, there is a chance the "anti-Alliance" vote will collect under the Liberal banner. I think this latter possibility to be less likely as I think the Liberal strategy of portraying the new Conservatives as being led by an "extreme" man will not work as well as it did with Day and the old Alliance.
28/03/04 Steve L.
Email: [hidden]
Yelich isn't exactly a star in the conservative party, but she's a fairly competent riding focued MP. With the conservatives sitting well in the polls, and barring any personal slip ups on her part, this one should be fairly safe hold for the conservative party.
20/03/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
This will be Con/NDP race, but with the NDP's federal numbers in Saskatchewan are up significantly from 2000, this one is within striking distance for their candidate, Don Kossick. It will be very close and Kossick will have to be dominant in thr urban parts of the riding, but I think the NDP could win it by 200 or less.
17/03/04 BAQ
Email: [hidden]
This should be an interesting race. Depending on the campaign I think that that the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP all have a shot at this riding. If I were to make a prediction now I would probally put the tories in the front, but I think this could be a close race.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The Blackstrap riding is located between Regina and Saskatoon, and the NDP does have some support here. Mrs.Yelich may have trouble holding on, but I beleive when the day is out, she will keep her seat

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