Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:18:00

Constituency Profile


Kratchmer, Norbert

LaPlante, Jordan

Ritz, Gerry

Tait, Glenn

Hon. Gerry Ritz

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • battlefords-lloydminster (168/168 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 09 C.A.B.
    No riding in Saskatchewan is more emblematic of the NDP collapse than this one. It was one of 5 seats they won in the province in 1993, but after redistribution, incumbent Len Taylor was soundly defeated, and has since fled to provincial politics, where he's no doubt hoping that history doesn't repeat itself. Ritz, for his part, shrugged off a challenge by Jim Pankiw in 2006, and even after the listeriosis scandal last time, he still won with over 60% and a 35-point margin. Even if he weren't also the Agriculture Minister, he would still be a sure bet to hold this for the Tories.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Like the other rural Southern Saskatchewan ridings, this should be an even Tory win. Even with the listeros controversy last election, Ritz still got 60%.
    09 10 27 binriso
    Kind of hard to believe that this was one of the 9 NDP seats in 1993, but its solidly CPC now, despite the backlash from the listeriosis outbreak last time I think the margin was like 30% so the CPC should win with 50-60 again.
    09 09 07 Scott D
    The Conservative support in this riding has remained over 50% for every election since the 2000 federal election. This riding is safely in the Conservative column
    09 08 24 EP
    With the NDP becoming more and more of an urban party, it cedes its traditional territory in rural Saskatchewan ridings like this one. This leaves the Conservative Party with no competition. Unless a regional dissent party appears and starts to field federal candidates, this rural Saskatchewan riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.

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