Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette

Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Menzies, Wendy

Osborne, Cheryl

Sopuck, Robert

Storey, Kate

Robert Sopuck

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • dauphin-swan-river (193/193 Polls)
  • portage-lisgar (10/197 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 11 Tony Ducey
    Rural Mantioba has just as much chance of voting out the CPC as Scarborugh does of voting out the Liberals, easy CPC hold.
    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    What's little-remembered nowadays is that Inky Mark was the only member of the Democratic Representative Caucus to not rejoin the Alliance once Stockwell Day was turfed, and that he actually joined the PCs and, had there been no merger, would have sought re-election as a PC MP. I think he might have won it, too. Certainly, this hypothetical situation is far more interesting than anything likely to happen here this time. Robert Sopuck won very comfortably here in the by-election and he's likely to win just as comfortably in the general.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Notwithstanding the nomination difficulties, this is solidly Tory like the rest of Manitoba, so the Tories should get at least 50% if not over 60%.
    10 12 10 binriso
    NDP did well percentage wise but Id expect another easy CPC win next election, by about the same margin as this byelection, if not a little bigger gap.

    By-election Prediction
    November 29, 2010
    Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette

    10 11 25 expat
    While there is no reason to believe the by-election result will be anything other than a fairly easy win for the conservatives, I'd expect their total to drop noticeably.
    Inky Mark was a popular and capable MP, and that inflated the Conservative vote somewhat. In the special election to fill his seat, the minor controversy over the way the Conservative candidate was selected won't particularly help their voter turnout. The NDP should finish a solid (but still distant) second - with a very active campaign, a fly-in from Layton, an effort to turn out First Nations voters, and the Wheat Board controversies helping them out. Expect the Liberal vote to shrink even more - with an indifferent campaign, a parachuted low profile candidate, and a doldrums for Iggy on the national level - it is not impossible to image them ending up losing 3rd place to the Greens.
    10 11 10 binriso
    Should be an easy win here for the CPC, though Inky Mark seemed like a good representative so they may lose votes and % during this byelection and the Greens will likely come 2nd though a very distant 2nd.
    10 10 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Yawn! Conservative win. Don't even think the other parties have candidates yet.
    10 10 24 R.O.
    This is the riding and by-election no one is talking about. all thats really know for sure is that Inky Mark has left for a municipal run in Dauphin. The conservatives are the only major party with a candidate as Robert Sopuck was nominated a while ago . currently the ndp and liberals do not even have candidates , and that seems odd as Inky Mark announced his retirement over a year ago. so they have had plenty of time and they lack money at riding association level as well in the riding. the ndp might of been able to make somewhat of a run here if they had found somebody sooner but its looking like there more fixated on Winnipeg North seat and not paying much attention to this one. and same goes for liberals although they haven't ever been a force in the riding unless there polling extremely high among first nations voters. it looks like the opposition waited too long here and may not even have candidates until a week into the by-election.
    09 10 31 R.O.
    With longtime mp Inky Mark retiring this be one of the few vacant ridings in the next election . although its likely to get a bit more attention than before but rural manitoba in generally conservative territory so i don't expect that to change and i'm not even sure who the opposition parties plan to run here and if any of them actually plan to target the riding or not. the conservatives i think already have a new candidate here in Robert Sopuck who was an outdoors columnist for the winnipeg free press.
    09 08 25 Sean P.F.
    Southern, Rural Manitoba is Conservative country. Expect an easy victory for the Tories come election day.

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