Update:
4:54 PM 26/12/2005

Prediction Changed
12:39 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
Federal Election - 2006



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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Libearl/libéral
Don Dewar
NDP/NPD
Walter Kolisnyk
Conservative/conservateur
Inky Mark
Green/Vert
Kathy Storey
Christian Heritage
Iris Yawney

Incumbent:
Inky Mark

2004 Result:
Inky Mark
18025
Walter Kolisnyk
7341
Don Dewar
6809
Lindy Clubb
673
David C. Andres
560

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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25 12 05 James C
Inky Mark won by over 10,000 votes last time. Unless the Conservatives come out with a platform against farmers, this is solid Tory land.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
The NDP will not win this riding. Even provincially where their support is about twice what it is federally they only won the ridings in the Northern half which has fewer people than the Southern half, which went Progressive Conservatives provincially. This has never been a strong NDP riding so suggesting the NDP having a strong farm platform will win it for them is nonsense. It might help them in Saskatchewan where they should be able to pick up seats and they may increase their total, but not enough to win it. Even with the Conservatives down nationally and in Manitoba, they haven't dropped by more than 5% and some polls even show them up in Manitoba so that still means Inky Mark will get at least 48% meaning every single liberal vote would have to go over to the NDP to even be competitive, which won't happen.
28 05 05 Mark R.
While this riding is rural and fertile for the conservatives - this riding was previously held by the NDP. The Liberal scare tactics affected all ridings, including this one and compressed the NDP vote. If the NDP includes a Pro-farm campaign platform, you may see the NDP re-gain this riding come the next election.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
I heard that the liberals were trying to get Inky Mark to switch by offering him the position of agriculture minister. However, he declined which was a smart move considering this is Rural Manitoba which the Conservatives will win by a large margin followed by the NDP and the liberals coming in third. Besides he already jumped ship once when he switched from the Canadian Alliance to the Progressive Conservatives, so he would lose all credibility if he jumped ship a second time.



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