Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:14:00

Constituency Profile


Alghabra, Omar

Bilek, Michelle

Dechert, Robert

Fraser, John

Sullivan, Dagmar

Bob Dechert

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • mississauga-centre (83/193 Polls)
  • mississauga-west (87/204 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 25 Latif
    Here definitely is a close race and Easter weekend brought both federal leaders in this riding. This was a neglected riding for conservative but finally Mr. Harper made a visit. This has given some hope to conservatives but still it is not an easy fight. Omar has proven that he is more organized with a much bigger pool of volunteers. During my visit to few of polling stations on Friday and Saturday, I witnessed volunteers for Omar were more active in encouraging their supporters to come to polling stations.
    Despite the fact that Liberals are not doing well at national level but it looks this riding is going to liberals.
    11 04 19
    What are you talking about? The very next day, I went to Bob campaign office and the signs were ready and i was putting them up. Cheers.
    11 04 18 waleedbleek
    This race is very close.. but i think Omar Alghabra the liberal candidate has a better organization on the ground. They were out there from day one, while Dechert was in the print press. So i am calling this seas going to Omar and the Liberals.
    11 04 16 Art
    More Liberals will vote without the Carbon Tax thing, BUT just who will they vote for this time? Alghabra lost last time for a reason; and it wasn't the Carbon Tax thing. All of the other local Libs still won. He didn't. There are over one hundred thousand people living in the riding; the Libs should have fielded a different candidate rather than shoving this one down Liberal throats again. Given that - Libs may stay home again; vote NDP again; or hold their noses and vote in Dechert again. Some will no doubt hold their noses and vote for Alghabra - close but Con hold - domage.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    Omar has done a good job of re-invigorating the traditional Liberal support and engaged the youth in the community. I think he'll retake this with a 1,000-vote margin, countering the loss of Dhalla's seat.
    11 04 14 Harjoh
    If signage means anything, then this is going to stay CPC. Two elections ago, LPC and CPC signage in my area was about even and LPC won. Same candidates in last election and CPC signage increased to almost 2:1 for CPC and CPC candidate won. Yesterday counted almost 3:1 Dechert signs to Algabrah signs. Look for CPC hold.
    11 04 13 Joe
    This riding is difficult to call, but the Conservative candidate has mailed several fliers recently. It seems like the Conservative campaign is a bit better organized than the Liberal candidate's campaign. This could come to the wire, but I'm calling a Conservative hold, but just barely.
    11 04 12 MH
    A very narrow win for the Conservatives in 2008, when many Liberal voters stayed home, makes thus a riding ripe for a take-back, unless there is a collapse of the Liberal vote in Ontario during the last three weeks of the campaign. Omar Alghabra should win this by a couple of thousand votes at least.
    11 04 12 JK
    Liberal are targeting this riding very strategically. Their door to door campaign is bringing results. Bob is incumbent candidate but has very low profile with in Cons. He is not getting much support from Cons except a visit of Jim. We will see the debate but it looks that structure of debate will not effect much the opinion of voters. Conservatives are definitely ahead of Liberal but not in this riding. This riding for sure is going to Liberals.
    11 04 09
    The NDP in the riding has imploded plus the Liberal turnout will be high enough to defeat the Conservative MP..Liberal Omar Alghabra lost by only 397 votes..
    11 04 08 Marco Ricci
    Mustafa Rizvi of the NDP endorsed the Conservatives, but it may not end up being a big help. The NDP have already found a replacement candidate, and Rizvi's removal from the ballot could actually help the Liberals. In 2008, some articles suggested that Rizvi may have actually divided the vote and caused Omar Alghabra to be defeated:
    The above article also suggests that Rizvi may have been a Conservative plant whose purpose was to split the vote. In any case, the new NDP candidate won't have as much experience in the riding as Rizvi, and Alghabra might be able to win back some of the NDP votes that went to Rizvi last time.
    11 04 06 Tony Ducey
    The NDP candidate here in 2008 is endorsing Dechert, that's enough to give him this riding.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    Along with Oak Ridges-Markham, this is without question the Liberals best shot of regaining one of their lost ridings from 2008. An interesting twist the NDP candidate from 2008 endorsed the Tories, but I doubt this will make much difference considering how irrelevant the NDP is. As long as the Tories continue to poll well in Ontario they should hold this, but if they falter it could return to the Liberals.
    11 04 02 Mirza
    Omar looks much organized. He targeting young voters through twitter, facebook and Youtube. His campaign office is much more active than his competitors. One can hardly feel the presence of Conservative candidate in the riding. I am sure Tories have a plan to reach out but if they did not change their pattern, this seat is going to Liberals.
    11 04 01 Marco Ricci
    The NDP candidate here, Mustafa Rizvi, has decided to quit and support the Conservatives. The NDP plans to nominate a replacement candidate.
    We will have to see how this effects the race in the weeks to come.
    11 04 01
    The NDP candidate dropped out and endorsed the Conservative.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    The big surprise here is the incredibly low profile of Bob Dechert, especially considering he's the only Tory in urban Peel (more people than Calgary) and he's got a relatively decent resume to boot. Could be the long shadow of Lisa Raitt but either way it doesn't bode well for them holding the seat. Alghabra isn't the ideal candidate but even the slight uptick in Ontario that the Grits are now enjoying should be enough to send him back to Ottawa.
    10 12 01 wyatt
    Dechert's win by less than 400 in '08 will keep this TCTC for a long time.
    10 04 04 R.O.
    its really tough to say what might happen here , its obivously a conservative / liberal race here as the other parties have never been much of a factor in Peel region. Bob Dechert has somewhat of an advantage as he's the incumbent and was recently named a Parliamentary Secretary although his liberal opponent Omar Alghabra was also mp for a time. and both parties actually have a fair bit of support in the riding as they both had over 20,000 votes here. the riding could go conservative again but its far from a safe riding as its an area where the liberals remain competitive . and as there prospects get worse in other parts of Canada there bound to focus some resources on a unheld GTA riding like this one. but in the end i'd say this one will go to whichever party is running strongest in Peel region during the future election which still may be a long way off.
    09 11 20 Top Can Inc.
    It seems the Conservatives are really afraid of Omar Alghabra. They have recently cited past statements from him as an example of the Liberals' alleged Anti-Semitic opinions, and are hoping to shore up any pro-Israel votes to ensure their stooge Dechert gets reelected. However, Erindale is not Thornhill, so I don't know what the percentage of Jewish voters there are, but I'm sure is not as high as it can affect voting intention. Dechert is risking his chance of winning comfortably by associating himself with his party's accusations of his Liberal opponent. He should distance himself from them as soon as possible.
    09 11 04 A.S.
    Did anyone anticipate that *this* would be the only seat in BrampMiss to go Tory in '08? Even if it were a delayed reaction to Alghabra's '06 nomination controversy or a third-time-candidate gift to Dechert, I'm prone to thinking of it more as a bank-shot fluke than anything--not that CPC won, but that CPC won here and nowhere else. Still, raw incumbency plays dividends, so I wouldn't be so quick as to hand it back to Alghabra--even if by past parameters, the growth pattern favours the Liberals...
    09 10 08 Phoenix
    I've seen Bear & Ape (among others) make the assertion that abstinent Liberals were the sole cause of a number of seats going Tory last time, and that the return of those voters will inevitably allow the Liberals to regain seats like Mississauga-Erindale. That assertion appears to be made based on some tenuous assumptions: 1) It assumes that the electorate is hyper-static, as though everyone who voted Liberal/Tory last time will do the same this time, and that all the Liberals need to do is get a few of their less-enthusiastic voters out to the polls. Given the back-and-forth shifts in popular support that we've seen in Ontario over the past few months (most recently, very heavily in the Tories' favour), the notion that the Liberals will pull out a nest-egg of disgruntled Dion-era voters while the Conservatives campaign in a vaccuum is a bit of a stretch. 2)It assumes that those abstaining voters will actually come back. Those voters stayed home because of a lack of enthusiasm, both in their leader and in their party - and most polling these days generally suggests that Liberals are every bit as unenthusiastic under Ignatieff as they were under Dion. 3)It assumes that Ignatieff will inevitably outperform Dion, that things can't possibly get worse for the Liberals - a regression toward the mean, if you will. Again, the trendlines in public support suggest that the situation HAS deteriorated further for the Liberals in Ontario since the last election, and until Ignatieff and company do something big to stop that - perhaps make a game-changing policy announcement, unearth a whopper of a CPC scandal, or run an incredibly heavy-hitting ad campaign - I'd feel quite safe making a CPC prediction for a riding like Mississauga-Erindale.
    09 10 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Swift: We agree with you that existing NDP and CPC voters will not switch parties because Iggy is a few doors over. Where we disagree is on the degree of '08 stay-at-home Liberals that will switch to the CPC. The CPC has been creeping up in this riding over the past few election, no denying that as this is part of the overall trend we see in Ontario. However we should get into the mind of those stay-at-home Liberal voters. They obviously were not happy with Dion nor has Harper won over their hearts and minds (at least in '08). The vast majority of these voters would not be card-carrying Liberals nor would they be Liberals who frequent election-predictioneering websites. They would be the average Joe & Jane who generally are Liberal leaning. Now what was everyone saying back in '08: Conservative minority. Nobody really thought the election would be as close (towards Harper getting a majority) as it was. Why? Because no one expected the Liberals to sit it out as much as they did. Had the Liberals not sat home, the CPC would be somewhere closer to 130 seats, the Liberals closer to 95 and the NDP closer to 30 (this is a very rough estimate). Now there is talk in the media about a CPC majority. This is going to frighten most of those stay-at-home Liberal voters who still do not trust Harper and will compel them to vote. Not to say that all are going to vote Liberal; Harper has done a good job managing the recession and the country as a whole. None the less, it would take Iggy coming across as a total buffoon for a real Tory surge anywhere in Peel. Think we can all agree that this race will be close no matter who comes out on top in the end.
    09 09 27 Swift
    Ape & Bear, have you looked at how the Conservative candidates that first won in 2004 did in 2006? How about the 2006 rookies in 2008? I think that the stay at home Liberals in 2008 would be the most likely voters to be part of the typical surge in a Tory candidate's first defence of their seat. I don't think many NDP or Conservative supporters think that being a couple of ridings away from Ignatief is going to be a big advantage. In fact many Liberals are beginning to have their doubts as well. Before we get into the campaign, this certainly can not be considered a sure thing for the Tories, but I think they have a definite advantage.
    09 09 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Swift: That's just it. The last drop, which made all the difference, did not go to the CPC. It was Liberals who just stayed home and didn't vote. With a new leader and one who is just a few ridings over, the Liberals will be hammering this riding. As well, conventional wisdom would suggets the Liberals will do better in Ontario. Doesn't seem likely that the majority of those Liberal sit-outs from '08 will turn CPC but more likely go back to the Grits.
    09 09 21 Swift
    Two factors are working against the Bear and Ape analysis. The first is the steady drop in Liberal support that has mainly gone to the Conservatives since 2000. The second is the great success that the Tories have had retaining close wins. Unless the campaign shows a definite swing to the Liberals this one will likely stay blue.
    09 09 11 Stevo
    Hang on a sec. Who are the Liberals running? Is it Omar Alghabra again? If so, I think Dechert has a very reasonable chance of hanging on. If the Liberals put forward a more credible, mainstream candidate however, then I agree that Deschert is likely to find his time in Ottawa bitterly short and sweet.
    09 09 05 MF
    Having lost it by a few hundred votes (due to low Liberal turnout and no increase in the Tory raw vote), Erindale is just about the lowest hanging fruit for the Liberals.
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The headline for this riding on election night 2008 should have read, ‘Liberal voters stay home, Conservatives squeek in!’. About 4000 fewer votes were cast in 2008 than in 2006. The conservatives got basically the same number of votes in both elections, the NDP lost about 1800 votes while the Greens gains about 1000 votes. As for the Liberals? Down almost 3400 votes. Just enough to let the CPC take this one. We can't see Liberal voters doing that again. It's going to be a battle ground but the Liberals will certainly be out to take this back and the stay at home voters will probably help them this time.

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