Prediction Changed
10:16 PM 20/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Alghabra, Omar
Dechert, Bob
Pietro, Richard
New Democratic
Rizvi, Mustafa
Sullivan, Dagmar

Omar Alghabra

2006 Result:
Omar Alghabra
Bob Dechert
Rupinder Brar
Adam Hunter
Ronnie Amyotte

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 14 Realistic
Last election was a close one in this riding. But this time the Liberals have the unpopular Dion and his ‘Carbon tax’. It's likely many have shifted to the conservatives. You can't really count on the ethnic vote either since Erindale is a mix of different groups but still predominantly white. I also noticed that there's a lot more blue signs this time around.
08 10 11 Harjoh
Many more signs for Dechert this time. Outpacing Algabrah 3:2 in my part of Erindale. Look for a possible steal here. Either way it will be close.
08 10 04 T.G
The Conservative Party now has 41% support in Ontario with the Liberals trailing at 35%(Oct.4), this riding had a plurality of just over 3000 votes which means the swing of support in Ontario from Liberal to Conservative could easily result in a Conservative win in this riding. According to the ANTI-CONSERVATIVE website which makes predictions of vote totals in each riding according to the lastest polls and tells left wingers to vote either NDP or Liberal to prevent a Conservative win, as of Oct 2 the vote totals of this riding would be:
Bob Dechert(CPC):24,429
Omar Alghabra(LIB):22,006
Richard Pietro(GRN):7,327
Mustafa Rizvi(NDP):5,735
08 09 27 R.O.
The 905 is becoming increasing competitive this election and well this riding is not part of the 20 ridings being polled as battleground ridings it is rate beside 3 of them so this riding is likely also very competitive and somewhat similar numbers as other ones. The liberal has a slight incumbent advantage but not much as he has only been mp for a couple of years and part of ineffective opposition. The conservative candidate ran here last election as well so might be a bit better known than last election. The conservatives also won a fair number of polls in this riding so with better numbers now combined with weaker liberal numbers it might be within reach. Omar Alghabra would have to run an amazing campaign or something along that line to hold onto this riding this election if liberal numbers drop any lower I suspect.
08 09 23 John
Living in this riding, it is very obvious that there are less red signs compared to the last federal election and i would say that i am quite surprised with the number of blue signs out there. I believe this riding has a very good chance of turning blue.
08 09 22 P.Chow
The riding is quite diverse, and incorporate the student population of UTM. It is a rather liberal neighbourhood to say the least. If there was a reasonable NDP or Green Party candidate running, the votes may be dispersed between the two parties and the Liberals. However, since most of Mississauga-Erindale barely know that there is an NDP or Green Party candidate so far in the campaign, it'll be Liberals hands down. Especially when Mr. Alghabra is an incumbent, albeit under Dion's poor policies and leadership.
08 09 21 Arthur
Not too much interest in this race based upon the last submission date. Based on the lack of signage in this riding, one might wonder if there actually is an election going down. Haven't heard if the NDP or Greens even have candidates. I suspect that volunteers are in short supply.
08 01 16 Daver
Mr. Algahabra did a good job of taking the Conservatives to task for their mishandling of the Chalk River reactor and the firing of the President of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission. I think people will remember this and return him to parliment.
07 10 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Just to caution Johnny No-Name, this may have been close in 06 but like A.S. said, there was chanting on behalf of Islam at Alghabra's nomination meeting which didn't go over well with some. Top it off, this was an open seat. Alghabra has incumbency advantage now which should widen the gap. The CPC has yet to gain any significant new traction in Ontario. Couple that with Alghabra's preformance in caucus and it's a likely Liberal hold. We will concede though, that a TCTC prediction would not be without precedence.
07 10 29 binriso
Well It was a 3300 vote difference last time, not a landslide but not that close either. The MP was a major Kennedy supporter who went to Dion so Id have to think that the Liberals will try and save him this election and keep Mississauga all or mostly red. 416-905 is where the Liberal support is strongest in Ontario, and the 905 will be a huge battleground next election.
07 10 13
I think this at least be considered too close to call, if not Conservative. The CPC is poised to win a majority, or at least a larger minority, and if so, this may very well be one seat that goes blue. The LPC won here by 2000-3000 votes in 2006, hardly enough to call a safe red seat.
07 04 25 A.S.
Remember *why* the result was so close last time: near-disaster in the Liberal camp thanks to chanting on behalf of Islam at Alghabra's nomination meeting. As a result, this was up there with Belinda Stronach in '06's GTA-Grit-victory-from-the-jaws-of-certain-defeat stratosphere. And, face it; as with Belinda, it helped that the near-certain CPC contender was found to be too Reform-a-Tory for comfort. Even now, being ?closely tied to several people in the party leadership? might be a mixed blessing. But above all, the nomination fiasco and resulting electoral trial-by-fire is expired news; and relative to what he went through, Alghabra's overachieved in caucus. Not that there isn't a lingering hum of vulnerability thanks to '06 (and it remains to be seen whether the nuclear shadow of Wajid Khan is a plus or a minus)--but overall, due to proven/unforeseen freshman strength, the Liberals are more likely to outscore their last result here than anyplace else in Mississauga...
07 04 22
Alghabra has been a rising star within the Liberal Party. A rookie MP who has vaulted to the position of his party's immigration critic. He won last time in extremely troubled times, but then now he is more well known within the party and the constituency. Omar Alghabra shall and will definitely continue to be the MP of Mississauaga Erindale. Liberal Hold
07 04 17 M. Hashim
I highly doubt Mr. Alghabra will lose this riding regardless of national poll trends. Understandably, some doubt should be there because of the low margin of victory in the previous election, but this riding has been Liberal federally for quite some time. And Mr. Alghabra is now working with a base that is far larger than what he had in the previous election; a definite asset of incumbency. Most in the community see him as a breath of fresh air, that is actually delivering results and being productive and his constit office is always on the ball. There's no way he's going to lose this riding. Watch for him in future cabinets.
07 04 10 Glen
The results were so close last election. And this will be a riding the federal campaign is going to target, as Dechert is closely tied to several people in the party leadership. Expect to see Stephen Harper and others in the riding several times.
07 03 26 RZ
With the Conservatives at 40% in Ontario according to the latest poll, I would not be so quick to call this one for the Liberals. It was a very close race last time around, and this will definitely be a targeted riding. If the Tory level of support in Ontario holds, then they will make big gains in the 905 region, and I think this will be one of them.
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
The rising star that is Alghabra will likely ensure that the Liberals will keep this riding. We're not convinced that it will be by a large margin though. The riding does have a sizable Conservative element and the CPC will be targeting places like Mississauga. A cautious nod to the grits.
07 03 22 RF
To predict a Liberal victory here is foolish. You have to consider - the MP won by a small margin (less than 5%). The Tories are way up in Ontario. The Liberals are down especially in the 905. This will be a target. This will flip to the Tories.
Incumbency doesn't mean so much in enormous ridings like this one, where familiarity is less than in rural ridings.
07 03 21 M. Lunn
I would say there is at least a 90% chance Omar Alghabra will be re-elected since he now has the incumbent advantage, but considering he only won by 5% and how volatile the 905 belt is, I wouldn't want to call this until polls stabilize, but it definitely favours the Liberals.
07 03 20 Brian
An incumbent, dynamic, rookie Liberal MP who has risen from obscurity to be his party's immigration critic pitted against a former Reformer who has already lost twice (once to Carolyn Parrish, once to Omar Alghabra). This riding stays Liberal, and by a healthy margin.

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