Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:44 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:38 PM 6/26/2004

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Simon Black
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Jeff Brownridge
Bob Dechert
David Greig
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Carolyn Parrish

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Mississauga Centre (46.7%)
Carolyn Parrish
Mississauga West (53.3%)
Hon. Steve Mahoney

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,820 63.92%
7,650 18.94%
4,994 12.36%
1,345 3.33%
583 1.44%

Mississauga Centre
(83/193 polls, 34181/74228 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Mississauga West
(87/204 polls, 39079/90008 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 big g
I'm afraid the ndp and the greens won't add up to much here-maybe 10% total max. So the score needed to win is about 46%+. Parrish can afford drop by about 30% and still win. Dechert has wasted his campaign time and money by hammering Parrish personally-not smart. He may be a good lawyer but he failed politics 101-its very hard to smack a lady with a picture of her grandson on her brochure, and look like a gentleman. Steve Mahoney tried and looked bad too. Basically, people either love her or hate her- much like mayor Hazel. Trashing her is only getting her sympathy. With Harpers vote waning in the gta, Dechert and his more rabid supporters may as well hit the scotch early....close boys, but no cigar this round! Don"t underestimate her support with women, older adults, youth and the new Canadians. Dechert won't score with them.
21/06/04 Jamal Siddique
Email: [hidden]
This riding is too close to call. Eventhough Parrish had close to 64% of the vote here, this riding is hers to lose. But the defense has been fairly bad, the NDP Candidate has made a serious dent in her support. Many of my neighbours, also Muslim, do not feel that the gay or abortion issue is as important as had been in previous elections, and definitely not as important as immigration and the honoring of foreign gained education. The call for strategic voting isnt really working either.
The NDP has gone straight towards the heart of her support and is hurting her badly, mainly because most of the NDP volunteers, which are plentiful have extremely good grassroot ties within 'her' Muslim community. Dechert, a former Alliance member, is capitalizing on the NDP splitting her core support and also her remarks around Palestine and Bush, demonizing her for her lack of patriotism.
Parrish has also been very shy on debating the other candidates, which is adding to the public perception of her being stuck up, uncooperative and appearing as if she is weak and hiding something.
13/06/04 W.L.
Email: [hidden]
Parrish's profile will propel her to a victory here. Three reasons:
1. She's a great constituency MP. She held the Youth Peace Vigil last year and the Mississauga Public Health Care Forum a couple of years back. Voters will remember that and mark her name on the ballot.
2. Lack of NDP presence ensures that she'll definitely not be hurt on the left.
3. Look for major youth support at the ballot box and on the hustings. Armies of high-school students will knocking on doors and putting up signs on her behalf once their exams finish over the next week or so.
05/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We think that this is one riding that is prime for the Conseravtives to pick up. First, the recent news that the Conservatives have pulled ahead of the LIberals in Ontario (almost tied nationally). Second, we have a Liberal incumbant (Carolyn Parrish) who is known for her untimely brash comments. One poster said that many find her "frank and honest" but others won't appreciate this and won't win her any friends (or new votes). Third, and this is probably what's going to do her in, is the bitter dispute with Mahoney over the riding nomination. Though not as bitter as the Copps-Valleri battle, this will leave some open sores. We can easily see many Mahoney supporters staying home or voting for other parties. This is not a definit Conservative victory but it could come to that if things keep going as they are going now.
05/06/04 Bryan
Email: 0bgc@qlink.queensu.ca
I know that Carolyn puts up her signs in the last half of the campaign, that's not at issue. What's surprising isn't that she has none. Rather, my neighbours in this riding, who have always had Liberal signs, now many have Bob Dechert conservative signs. This is what I mean. Voter discontent with Carolyn Parrish and the Liberals seems to be growing. I would not be the least bit surprised if Bob Dechert carries this seat on election day.
04/06/04 Andre
Email: [hidden]
If Parrish does win, she will not get more than 50%...
The majority of this riding was part of mississauga west, run by Steve Mahoney, who was and still is very popular in the riding. The animosity created by Parrish will cost her a LOT of traditionally grit support.
02/06/04 K.T.
Email: [hidden]
Parrish is seen as a candidate with political view left of the Liberal party with anti-American sentiment, as seen from the publicity in the newspaper last year. This may not sit well with the Martin caucus and may not be in accord with common Canadian view. One of Parrish's major support base comes from Muslims and Palestinians, and the re-drawn electoral boundary shifting west may weaken her support. Some of the Catholic votes may be alienated by Parrish's strong support for same sex marriage and abortion. The Jewish votes would tend to avoid Parrish. The ethnic South Asian votes are undecided, but may be affected by the current anti-Liberal climate. Bob Dechert is an experienced politician and would do well to represent the people of the district. From information on the Internet, he appears to hold moderate and balanced views. It will be interesting to see how events unfold.
02/06/04 Mike McNair
Email: m.a.mcnair@lse.ac.uk
Carolyn Parrish has been slow to put up signs before and what ends up happening is that more and more momentum heads in her direction as the signs keep going up.
01/06/04 Big G
Email: [hidden]
Parrish wins this one in a walk. With 20 years experience and a crack team of volunteers she will easily leave Dechert in the dust. Although part of the riding is new to her, she represented the area from 1993 to 1997. Although she drives right-wing males rabid, their wives and everybody else find her frank and honest. With 40% of the riding new Canadian, the Conservative platform is viewed with great suspicion. Prediction: Parrish 53%, Dechert 41%, Others 6%.
29/05/04 Bryan
Email: [hidden]
This seat needs to be, at a mimimum put into play, or possibly shifted over to the CPC. Carolyn Parrish has no visible campaigns signs up in the riding at all (with the exception of the two just in front of her campaign office). Bob Dechert has signs on many lawns, many more than the Liberals, who seem to have none. What seemed like a slam-dunk a month ago, seems less so as the days go on. With polls shifting away from the Liberals, Mississauga-Erindale is probably going to be a Conservative victory.
27/05/04 Andre
Email: [hidden]
Mahoney would have made this riding a rock-solid lib win.
Parrish's support is mostly in mississauga centre. this should be a toss-up unless parrish has made some inroads that i missed.
dechert can win here, mississauga-erindale is far from decided.
26/05/04 RF
Email: richiefullerton@hotmail.com
I just checked the official Parliament of Canada website, the last time this part of the country didn't elect a member from what became the governing party was 1968 -- when the area was half agricultural, and didn't resemble what it is like today. If the Conservatives are seen as gaining big time during them campaign, then this and dozens of other ridings will go Conservative and it will be a Conservative minority overall. Don't forget how many wealthy people there are in this riding, and how much many people would like to stick-it-to-Carolyn. Of course, this entirely depends upon Mr Martin putting his feet in his mouth. Otherwise, if there is no Conservative swing during the campaign, then the Liberals will take it.
25/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Here's what may turn out to be a referendum on the candidate as much as on Martin's leadership, Liberal misdeeds, etc--and as mentioned in other posts, a counter-referendum on whether this is the right kind of Tory candidate (and party) to cast a "damn Liberals, I hate those bastards" vote with. Especially in the ultra-affluent neighbourhoods along Mississauga Rd and the Credit River, M-E isn't Tory-unfriendly by any means--and with the shift west into Erin Mills, it's also a little less inner-cityish than Parrish's existing constituency. I've an inkling this is one to be monitored carefully--and more so than if the less abrasive Steve Mahoney was the nominee instead...
23/05/04 Ron
Email: [hidden]
The only extreme candidate in this riding is not the Conservative, but Carolyn Parrish who is well to the left of her own party, well to the left of the NDP for that matter. This will be a close one since the Libs have a strong base, but the swing voter here could tip it to the CPC.
28/04/04 Janet M.
Email: Janetm@yahoo.ca
Parrish has the backing of the muslim and polish community here. That is a larger number than appears. Dechert is anything but a mainstream Canadian.
28/04/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Bob Dechart is far too intelligent a gentleman to have, let alone display, the open and vacuous prejudices of Carolyn Parrish. Though I think the election call is imminent (and for June 14), I can't read if 905 is going to finally shift back to the Conservatives or if they will be confined to periferal rural ridings bordering 905 in eastern and western Ontario. Nevertheless, Dechart will get the 5% bump for being the best candidate and has an issue in Parrish herself that may sway another 5%...Not a bad start to a cliff-hanger win.
21/04/04 Janet M.
Email: janetm@yahoo.ca
As much as I would like to see Parrish lose, it just won't happen. Bob Dechert is extremely far right wing and heavily involved with the Reform/Alliance. Parrish said she hates the Americans, Dechert probably would have said I hate muslims. It's a battle of lesser of the two evils and Parrish will sadly come out on top again.
14/04/04 David I.
The riding itself had 25,000 votes.
It is important to note that 55% of the new Miss-Erindale riding is actually part of Steve Mahoney's constituency... His supports abhorr Carolyn and all that she represents.
DId you see her on "Talking Politics" last week? She claimed (openly I might add) that she had not spent a single day in Ottawa since December and has been working on her nomination the entire time.
The voters will see this, and say sionara....
DECHERT will win by a nose.
14/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Bye bye Carolyn. 'Bout time. Bob Dechert is for real and will bring lots of foot soldiers to outer Mississauga.
This is a trend riding. Alex Jupp and Dr. Bob Horner won here as Tories in good Tories here. A national CPC trend means lots of 905 seats.
12/04/04 Joanne
Email: Joannelaos@hotmail.com
Unless Bob Dechert makes a complete fool of himself, I think this riding will go blue. Last election, Parrish won because everyone was scared of Stockwell Day and his ideas. This time around, you have an united right wing party, moderate Conservative leader, and Liberal Scandals. However, there are many who support Parrish on her anti-American comments. So, I would say close Conservative win.
11/04/04 Dennis
Email: Dennismarland@yahoo.ca
Pre-anti American lines, I would have said close Liberal victory. But, Sponsorship Scandal and Parrish herself will give this riding away to the Conservatives. Dechert has high-profile Conservatives supporting him and the funds for his campaign will be abundant. Unless you despise Americans bitterly enough to call them bastards, I think the constituents will vote Conservative. This will be fight-to-the-end battle, but the Conservatives will end up with a minute victory:48% Conservative, 46% Liberal, 6% NDP.
08/04/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
The last few elections have broken down as so...
Parrish: 25,000 votes
Alliance: 6,000
PC: 5,000
If the Conservatives are worried about losing "red Tory" votes, they definitly don't have to fear that in this riding. However, even if the NDP (which got about 1,500) gains strength here, it just won't be enough to knock down Parrish unless her former Liberal votes go to other parties. Many Steve Mahoney supporters might just do that after the ugly nomination battle here. Unfortunetly, there are actually people here who supported her anti-American views in this riding and unless a blue Tory tide hits Ontario, she will sadly be awarded another term.
07/04/04 Dave I.
Email: [hidden]
If anyone thinks that Parrish is going to win this seat, they need to have their head examined.
1. She's alineated just about everyone in the Liberal Caucus. Evidenced in Martin's tour through the GTA, notably skipped all of Mississauga and hit up ridings that are important to PM; Barrie, Etobicoke-Centre (I believe), and Burlington. Frankly, most Liberals want her gone and they dont' care if they lose this seat to the Conservatives.
2. Dechert is far and away a better candidate than Parrish. An accomplished lawyer, well-known Conservative activist, and a prominent member in political circles, he is definitely a good representative. Well-spoken, Bob will not make the mistakes Carolyn has been known to on the campaign trail and will piss off less people.
3. Carolyn's mouth: Her comments over the past 11 years in particular will catch up with her this time. No vote splitting, a solid (and well funded) candidate, and a party in disarray, she's toast.
To say Mississauga is a "Liberal" town is ludicrous. It's long been a Conservative centre, just recently the town has been painted red. A true swing-vote region, this riding is an anomoly. Dechert has the org behind him, Parrish has her mouth.
4. Carolyn's much vaunted support from the Palestinian community will not do much. Only a small percentage of the riding is Palestinian, let alone Muslim. The numbers simply aren't there; she's alinated the Punjabi/East Indian clique as well as various members of the South-Asian community. Her stance on the Iraq war won her no friends in Ottawa, and frankly, voters in the riding don't vote based on ethnic lines.
This will be a close call, but I see Dechert taking 55% of the vote her making national headlines in the process. It's time that Parrish was given the truth, and soon, the truth will hurt in the form of her vote tally.
Conservative's by a nose.
04/04/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
Unless Steve Mahoney decides to run as an independent I think Carolyn Parrish is pretty safe here.
04/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Bob Dechart is listed in Canada 12004 as the Conservative candidate and will provide Parrish with a candidate who will strongly contrast her remarkable malice towards Americans and the USA government.
Mississauga went strongly Liberal in 2000, really huge margins, and that has to favour the Liberals...They should drop, but will it be enough? With Parrish, at least you have an MP who, on her own, will provide an alternate reason to vote Conservative. She was one of those whose public displays of anti-Americanism (not pro-Canadianism btw) managed to collectively and gratuitiously poison Canadian relations with the USA and hurt Canada in a number of economic and trade files. If Bob Dechart can learn chapter and verse on how she has hurt her own riding businesses and constituients, it might unglue quite a few voters,
20/03/04 Janet
Email: [hidden]
Carolyn Parrish is in deep trouble here. She hates Americans and pratically alienated herself from the left leaning liberals. Tory win here!
19/03/04 MP
Email: [hidden]
The Mahoney-Parrish run-off didn't hurt them as much here as it did in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Parrish will win despite the Conservative leanings of many upper-crust voters in this riding. A Liberal lock.
18/03/04 RWA
Carolyn Parrish may be a boorish loudmouth, but Mississauga is a Liberal town

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