Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Hill, Joe

Janssens, Mike

Johnston, Jim

Shipley, Bev

Stucke, Gayle

Bev Shipley

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • elgin-middlesex-london (7/218 Polls)
  • lambton-kent-middlesex (183/217 Polls)
  • perth-middlesex (39/204 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 02 Voting Even Though Pointless
    Prediction? Since there is no information to go on other than hunches, the most likely result is a Conservative win with about 50% of people who bother to vote. (50% of 50%? There's something to be proud of!) The absolute worst a Conservative can do in this riding is a narrow loss. But to who? I have my favourite party, but voting for them could be counterproductive in our pathetic system. If I thought any party could beat Shipley, I'd vote for it. This is probably true for most non-Conservative voters. But how can you Strategic Vote when nobody even knows who second place is?
    This riding:
    1) is a complete joke. It combines leftovers of 3 counties that have nothing to do with each other. Living just north of London, I have no connection to the other 2 counties. I can't even name 3 non-Middlesex towns in the riding. I'm probably not alone.
    2) screams for proportional representation, or some other system where I can vote for who I want without electing the guy I hate. Without a huge national/regional sweep at play, it will always be Conservative, so why even bother voting at all?
    11 04 27 Philip Shaw
    Is the big Orange Wave coming to LKM? I doubt it, but you never know. It is likely a Bev Shipley win here, although there are not as many Shipley signs on LKM farms as the last time. The Conservative refusal to give federal participation to Ontario's Risk Management Program rankles LKM farmers. However, many of them think they'll still get it by convincing the Conservatives. Long memories of past fights with the Liberals over the destruction of GRIP, NISA and other ag stabilization programs dies hard here. Liberals are still hurting from that. Liberal candidate Gayle Stucke's role in rural busing is by default an issue here as every rural family has to deal with a Board of Education (which she chaired) busing decision which goes back years. I was at the all candidates night in Florence. Stucke put up her position on RMP, but cancelled it out by supporting the gun law, which past Liberal MPs from LKM voted against. That's a vote killer in LKM. NDP candidate Hill didn't know his ag policy. Jim Johnson, the Green candidate was very knowledgable, but the Greens aren't part of the equation here. But you never know. Maybe the big Orange Wave is coming. However, polls show Shipley with greater than 50% support. So that Orange Wave will need to be huge. We'll see what happens. In politics, you never say never....
    11 04 24 M.H.
    I had assumed that our riding would go to Bev Shipley, the Conservative incumbent, before I attended an all-candidates meeting at which he met with a decidedly frosty reception. All the other candidates received applause when they spoke, but Mr. Shipley's remarks were consistently greeted with frosty silence. This all candidates' meeting was on April 20th in Watford.
    There were about a hundred people there and most of them rural people over the age of 60. Shipley was the least well received of the five candidates present.
    11 04 06 LKM Voter
    Gayle Stucke, while relatively well known in Wallaceburg, is a novice new comer to the liberal party as she has never volunteered nor assisted the local organization or past campaigns. Expect her to get support from teachers but struggle to get known in other areas of LKM.
    11 04 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Don't think the Liberals will ever see this one again unless there is a 93-esque collapse in the Conservative vote.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    A rural Ontario riding with no really large urban centre, university or manufacturing base. Besides in 2004 the Liberals barely scraped by and their candidate Rose Marie Ur was against the gun registry, pro-life, and against gay marriage thus I suspect a lot her votes were personal ones, not Liberal ones. In the past two elections the Tories won by over 15% so not even competitive.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    Shipley won with an outright majority last time, and that was with Wesley doing so well in his old stomping grounds of Wallaceburg. It should be very interesting to see how well a Liberal candidate without that connection will perform. Perhaps the NDP will pick up the slack, as they actually won Wallaceburg in 2004, and they did fairly well otherwise these last two elections. Not that it matters, as this is a solid hold for the Tories.
    11 03 25 Philip Shaw
    So what's it gonna be in Lambton Kent Middlesex in 2011. Bev Shipley has been everywhere over the last few years. Still the CAIS program lives, changed to Agri-Stability but still the same wasteful agricultural stabilization program local farmers loathe. The Conservative still don't support Federal participation in the Ontario Risk Management Plan, all vote killers in LKM. The LIberals have opportunity, but they created those programs which have a long memory on rural concessions. LIberal candidate Stucke is new, and surely enthusiastic. She will surely feel the rural busing decision to local schools, which was made under her watch at the Board of Education. I'm sure she has an answer to that, because its affected all rural families. Nobody liked busing kids so early in the morning. NDP and Greens, dunno, never on the radar screen here. Sure, Shipley will be hard to beat, he's more popular than his leader in LKM...but you never know...this is politics...
    10 01 24 Fisherman
    Shipley shouldn't have a problem winning this one but it must be noted that his campaign team has changed significantly since winning in 2006.
    First, his campaign manager from 2006 (win) and 2008 (win) has left the team and is no longer working in this riding federally.
    Second, his campaign chair from 2004 (loss) and 2008 (win) has left the team and is making an effort to tell people why.
    Uncertain why there would be this disruption on Shipley's team but internal issues have a way of spilling into the election campaign and these coupled with his overspending previously might come back to bite him in the rump.
    09 12 05 A.S.
    A Bev Shipley vs Jeff Wesley rematch led to an over 2:1 advantage in '08--maybe the best the Tories have ever done here? (Up through the 80s, this would have been more of a Tory/Liberal swing riding, back when the Liberals had more ‘True Grit’ in them--a concept now seemingly as yesteryearish, at least federally speaking, as the NDP's agrarian support in the Prairies.) Especially in light of no major urban centres, what happens now is but a foregone conclusion.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Shipley will hold this seat without any problems. 12,000 votes and more than 50% support will guarantee it.

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