07 07 14	A.S. 74.99.222.209
On the surface, the neighbouring situation w/Lambton-Kent-Middlesex and Chatham-Kent-Essex is identical. Both had longtime Liberal incumbents who were scared into ultra-marginality in '04; both incumbents retired in '06, and the CPCers who had scared them earlier waltzed their way into a practically anointed victory. (Even the '04 NDPers in both seats ran again in '06 and improved their share--though ironically, the bizarre Wallaceburg advantage Kevin Blake enjoyed in '04 was blunted by '06's Liberal candidate being the ex-mayor/councillor of the 'burg.) Yet beneath the superficially similar stats, there's a difference of seat character: the rural/agricultural economy more genuinely predominates in LKM (the largest urban centres, Strathroy and Wallaceburg, are only 10-15 thousand), while CKE has a stronger 401/Windsor corridor urban-industrial undercurrent. The latter is more a ‘Reagan Democrat’ kind of Tory seat, akin to the Contract-With-America-era House constituencies the Democrats super-targeted for takeback in 2006. CKE voted Tory out of anger with the Liberals; LKM voted Tory more out of genuine conviction--and remember, too, that LKM's long been a heartland of CHP/FCP support. (True, LKM's variously-formed predecessor seats were swing ridings rather than uniformly Tory, but there was less distinction btw/the parties then--indeed, a lot of that True Gritness was of a conservative ‘Garnet Bloomfield’ sort that, like Bloomfield, might well have been tempted to swing Reform/Alliance by the late 90s.) Therefore, I'm tempted to call this for the Tories, while treating its neighbour as more of a marginal. It would only take an Ernie Eves-ian circumstance for the grip of Harper to loosen here.
	07 03 29	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
This only went Liberal in 2004 because of Rose-Marie Ur who was a right wing Liberal since she opposed the gun registry, was pro-life, and against SSM. The Conservatives came within 200 votes in 2004 and if you add the Christian Heritage Party votes to them, they would have taken the riding. With Rose-Marie Ur not running anymore, the Tories should easily hold this one.