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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:41 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:26 AM 19/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Kevin Blake
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Allan James
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Allan McKeown
Bev Shipley
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Rose-Marie Ur

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Elgin-Middlesex-London (2.4%)
Hon. Gar Knutson
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex (78.3%)
Rose-Marie Ur
Perth-Middlesex (19.3%)
Gary Schellenberger

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,165 48.17%
13,735 29.85%
7,157 15.55%
1,990 4.33%
964 2.10%

(7/218 polls, 1795/70768 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(183/217 polls, 58141/69046 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(39/204 polls, 14364/68876 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Many Reformers in Middlesex-Kent-Lambton where Rose-Marie Ur has got the Liberal Member of Huron's maverick streak all over herself so too bad so sad for the Tory Bev Shipley.
23/06/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
Rumours abound that Harper will be coming into this riding on Thursday, 24th June - likely into Strathroy. It is not clear how much this will help Shipley considering that the Strathroy Paper has already published this week and will not be out again until after the election and we are unlikely to get much coverage from the London media. I agree with the previous post that the Conservative "surge" looks relatively weak and may even been slumping into reverse. I think this new dynamic coupled with the strengths of the Liberal candidate as mentioned in previous posts will see her retain her seat. The Conservative campaign here has been very lacklustre - very little local press attention, and I personally have not received anything in the mail from them nor have I been canvassed. Liberal Hold.
17/06/04 Philip Shaw
Email: pshaw@ciaccess.com
Is the big blue wave coming? Or is it the little blue wave. With the Liberals and Conservatives tied in the Ontario polls, I think it is more like the little blue wave. Ur should be able to retain this seat. But if the Ontario polls change and the big blue wave comes, she will be at risk.
17/06/04 Bubba
Email: jordanbuddy2002@yahoo.ca
It's a drowsy election in this riding. Martin is in Chatham-Kent Essex today, Harper in Windsor-Essex as well. But the national leaders are avoiding MKL, perhaps because they feel Mrs. Ur has it won? The Conservative candidate is underwhelming at best, and this shows in all the local debates. So it seems London, Windsor and points in between are in play, but MKL looks like a solid hold for the Liberals. Ur is enough of an independent-minded person to truly represent the people, which is what many people are looking for in a candidate.
15/06/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
It would be nice if A.S. would stop equivocating and actually tell us what he thinks. I don't know where he gets his figures from, but I don't know of a time the CHP federally or the FCP provincially got a double digit share of the vote here. They don't even field candidates consistently in this riding.
There is huge affection for the Rose-Marie Ur at the door in this riding, with many people saying that they will vote in support of her personally even if they are disillusioned with the Liberal Party on a national scale. A Recent phone poll by CHOK Radio in Sarnia (1070am) showed "overwhelming" positive voter response to Rose-Marie's candidacy.
15/06/04 S.G.
Email: [hidden]
I don't doubt that the Liberal incumbent is popular, and she has had a national profile over the last year with her highly publicized opposition to Liberal policies on same-sex marriage, abortion, and the gun registry. But the national Liberal campaign is emphasizing at least two of these three issues. With the rise of Conservative fortunes in Ontario's federal polls, it is difficult to see this rural riding staying Liberal.
10/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The history here's been Tory/Liberal swing, but that's back when party identities weren't so polarized (remember Garnet Bloomfield?)--and as the controversy over conservative Grits in the Steckle/McTeague/Ur mode proves, what's this "back when" business, anyhoo. Re whether the area's conservative, well, a big Rose-Marie Duh: in the glory daze of CHP and FCP, those parties typically scored their best tallies here, often double-digit percentages. Supposing that the SW Ontario results won't be the anticipated Tory blowout, supposing they're be more "equivocal", it'll be interesting to see which seats fall in which camp where; because it's a bit presumptious to assume that just because a Grit's a right-winger, he/she'll survive a rout. It'd be as freakish as Steve Peters being the only London-area provincial Grit in 1999...
01/06/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
Interesting articile in the London Free Press today entitled "Drive-by Polling" whereby a political columnist for the paper took a sampling of opinion from voters in the street in various ridings surrounding the City of London. A few interesting excerpts: "Across Middlesex-Kent-Lambton, like much of the region, many voters are uneasy about the Liberals and unsure of the Conservatives. But three term Liberal MP Rose-Marie Ur is so popular, every voter asked seems to be supporting her. "I'm voting Rose-Marie Ur, I'm not voting Liberal." Sharon White, 59, says outside a Strathroy grocery store
"I'm very pleased with Rose-Marie." Further to the south in the same riding: "Paul Glasgow, a retired Wallaceburg area farmer defends his local Liberal MP, Rose-Marie Ur. "She really is dilligent," he says. "People here are worried about employment. People in Toronto and Ottawa don't understand what's happening here and it isn't Rose-Marie Ur's fault." The Conclusion drawn by the reporter: "Except in Middlesex-Kent-Lambton where voters express great appreciation for three term Liberal Rose-Marie Ur, no seat in the London region appears as safe for the Liberals as in the last decade." Reinforces my earlier posts predicting a Liberal hold here.
25/05/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
To say that Ron Young performed "well" is a definite overstatement on Brad's part. The Reform/Alliance/Conservative/Regressive-Conservative (whatever they're calling themselves thesedays) share of the vote declined in 2000 from their performance in the 1997 general election. If you do the math, you will see that even combining the Alliance/PC vote from 2000 would still see Rose-Marie winning here by 1,273 votes. If the Conservatives and Mr Shipley are relying on a combination of the old Alliance and PC vote to win here, obviously it's insufficient for a win by itself, and I rather doubt they can count on all those old PC supporters backing the new Alliance Conservative Party. Mr Phair himself was a Red Tory. I can't imagine him feeling at home in a party lead by Stephen Harper. I think Rose-Marie's defence of and unswerving loyalty to those small c-conservative and rural values that are so widely held here will attract many of those old PC voters. As I said in my first post, it will be closer here than in past elections due to the national situation, buI believe she will have her 4th term.
23/05/04 Philip Shaw
Email: pshaw@ciaccess.com
At this point even with the Liberals at 35% in the national polls, it would surprise me if Ur lost. The biggest industry in this riding is agriculture. Nothing is close to it. The Liberal record is very poor, having re-vamped agricultural stabilization policies in spite of opposition from Ontario farm organizations. Ur supported the farm groups which will probably help her in this election. But with Mad Cow still haunting farm country, millions of dollars have dissapeared in a riding like Middlesex-Kent-Lambton. The Conservative candidate Shipley could be hurt because of the House Agriculture Committee treatment of the big meat packers. While the Liberals wanted to fine them $250,000/day, the Conservative members of the committee didn't go along effectively letting the big corporate packers off the hook for taking advantage of the Mad Cow problem. Shipley will have to explain that one. Clearly this was not a popular move in a riding like this.
But if the big wave of change comes, it comes. I don't see the NDP candidate being a factor although Blake is well known in the Kent part of the riding. Shipley is completely unknown in Kent.
So we will see. This riding is so big, it's hard to get it's pulse. But its all about agriculture. Any other issue just doesn't cut it.
23/05/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
My home riding. I have this far avoided making any kind of predictions about it, because, well, if you were to look up "bell-weather" riding in the dictionary, it might very well have a map of Middlesex county beside it. MKL goes as the wind blows. Up to know it seemed as though the wind was still blowing in the Liberals' favour. Even if the conservatives made a decent showing of 20 seats or so in Ontario, I might have been cautious about predicting a victory here. Things seem different these days though. The Compas poll this morning has the conservatives at 39% to the Liberals 42%. That reaction, which is surely due to McGuinty's budget, may simply be a short term sting... but it may also be a sign of things to come. With a campaign set to kick off in mere days, the long-touted "short memory" of voters when it comes to things like McGuinty's budget may well be long enough to punish Martin for Dalton's miscalculations. If that 39% holds, or even anything above 30%, rural ridings are going to start going CP, and if that happens, I'm willing to bet MKL will be jumping on the bandwagon. It's not as though conservatives do not have a strong base here either. I remember watching Ron Young make an impressive showing in 2000 for the Alliance, and the PCs got a good 7000 votes too. Still, neither Young or Phair were big names, which is where I think Shipley is a significant improvement. He was a popular mayor of the township of Middlesex Centre, and has good name recognition in the eastern half of the riding. This bodes even better for him since the western part of the old riding was chopped off and added to Sarnia-Lambton. Furthermore, in the same redistribution, MKL got part of Perth-Middlesex, which, as we all remember, is where Gary Schellenberger was elected as a PC last year. Notably, this site currently has Schellenberger as a CP hold next door. Then there is the matter of Ms. Ur herself. I won't deny that she is a popular MP, and is known, even by conservative supports, as a fair representative. That aside, she didn't blow away her competition last time, and if the new wave of support the CP is feeling on account of McGuinty's blunders continues (with the weight of redistribution taken into account) then I believe Shipley will have her beat. As VDay gets closer I'll be sure to post more, but for now, Middlesex-Kent-Lambton should not be called a Liberal hold.
19/05/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
In response to the last two participants. SE should air his views in regard to Sarnia-Lambton and Roger Galloway on the Sarnia-Lambton submission page. Most of his comments are irrelevant to the race in Middlesex-Kent-Lambton. I agree with Bubba's conclusion that Mrs Ur will hold her seat here, it is not true that electing an opposition MP is without precedent here. Ralph Ferguson was elected as Liberal MP for the old Lambton-Middlesex riding at the 1988 election which Brian Mulroney's Tories won nationally. I think it will all come down to constituent service here, and Rose-Marie Ur excels at it. There will be no justice in Canadian politics if she is not re-elected.
17/05/04 Bubba
Email: jordanbuddy2002@yahoo.com
This will be an interesting riding to watch, as Middlesex makes up the majority of the new riding, and towns such as Lucan and Ilderton are more "London-oriented" than "rural-oriented," so urban issues will play a bigger role in this riding than before. Ur has served her constituents with distinction, even Tory candidate Shipley admits that. The tale will be told during the campaign, if people are in the mood for change nationally, it will impact here, as rarely has an MP been elected in this area to the opposition. But predicting Ur will take it, in a much closer race than the previous 3.
11/05/04 SE
Email: [hidden]
This seat and the Sarnia seat are truly amazing. Both Ur and Gallaway fly the Liberal flag, as one of convenience for an easier electoral win over the last decade. They then vote against their party on a number of crucial issues that are traditionally Conservative issues that find resonance in the riding. Some may call this standing up for voters, but the real question should be - why are you supporting a party that you have to consistently criticize and vote against? I think that voters may finally wake up to the fact that despite Ms. Ur's votes against items and criticism of the gun registry, she has been part of the problem for the last 8 years, not the solution. This seat will go Conservative, which is much in line with Ms. Ur's voting record. Gallaway's bombast and ongoing self promotion might be too much to overcome, but voters might wisen up to him, as well. How is that Senate reform going, Roger? He has taken political grandstanding to new levels.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Liberal keep in a tight race. This may seem to contradict our comments on other ridings, where we berated others for saying a sure-fire Liberal win, where we think it's too close to call. Our reasoning, Rose-Mary Ur is one of those "vote for your constituents, not for your party or it's leader" type MP, much as Roger Galloway. This stands well with rural voters who in many circles will hold their noses and vote for a candidate even though they may not like the party that candidate represents. Having said that, the Conservative candidate will steal votes and it will be close. despite this, Rose-Mary will stand on top when the dust clears.
18/03/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
Rose-Marie Ur is standing again for a fourth consecutive time for the Liberals in this constituency, comprised largely of the old riding of Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, except having lost the Township of Enniskillen, the Town of Petrolia, and the Township of Plympton-Wyoming in Lambton county to the newly re-drawn riding of Sarnia-Lambton and gaining the municipality of Middlesex-Centre, including Kilworth Heights, Lobo, Ailsa Craig, Ilderton and Lucan from the old riding of Perth-Middlesex as well as Delware Township from the old riding of Elgin-Middlesex-London. These last two parcels have previously been represented by Mrs Ur when she was Member of Parliament for Lambton-Middlesex between 1993-1997 and will benefit from instant name recognition in these new areas without having to build a profile in them from the ground up. She retains her power base of Strathroy-Caradoc and the northern half of Kent county which has supported her strongly in the past two federal campaigns. Her willingness to defy the party whip and stand up for the views of her constituents on contentious issues such as the Gun Registry stand her in good stead with this rural electorate. The Conservative Candidate is set to be nominated on 23 March with three candidates, the most likely one (in my view) to emerge being Bev Shipley - currently Mayor of Middlesex Centre and a former Warden of Middlesex County. While Mr Shipley and the reunified Conservative Party will undoubtedly be the most serious competition for the Liberals in this riding since the 1993 election, Mr Shipley could face problems on his home turf over the handling of municipal amalgamation in the late 1990s which appears to have angered some of his constituents. He will also have difficulty, as a former dairy farmer, in justifying standing for a party that does not support supply management. No word yet on a New Democratic candidate, although indications are the previous candidate, Joyce Joliffe is not interested in standing again. The results of the 2000 campaign overlaid on today's boundaries show that even with the Alliance and PC vote combined, Mrs Ur would still have won by about 1270 votes. Final Prediction: Liberal Hold, united Right notwithstanding.

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