Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

London West

Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:33:00

Constituency Profile


Corbett, Brad Arthur

Ferguson, Doug

Ferguson, Peter

Holder, Ed

Morley, Rod

Ed Holder

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • london-west (221/221 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 gunther75
    Ed Holder wins because NDP runs a very strong campaign, will get many Liberal voters. Holder keeps his support at the same level, the Liberal campaign got little traction. Incumbency advantage makes Holder as strong as Sue Barnes in her best years, and it is no longer the time of Chretien governments. Many people are afraid of coalition and do not want political instability. The number of such people is at least as large as those opposing CPC. This will help Holder get a portion of Sue Barnes Liberals as well. Rae and Ignatieff visits to London had little impact. Conservative hold.
    11 04 24 Ken Roberts
    Doug Ferguson (Liberal) is almost certainly going to win in London West. I've seen his campaign from nearby (a neighbouring riding), and it is truly impressive. With the small margin for the Conservative incumbent Ed Holder in the 2008 election, and Holder's gaffes re lack of support for saving jobs at Diamond Aircraft, and re non-participation in discussions of future of public health care, Holder has lost much support. I speak with voters in the outskirts of London, near London West, and see their opposition to Harper. That swing must surely be happening in London West also.
    11 04 22 GB
    This riding is still too close to call. The Conservative candidate is less popular than his party, and has recently received some bad press over Diamond Aircraft, seniors' pensions, and his absence from a few debates. The NDP are well organized, but some of their previous success is due to the popularity of Gina Barber, who is not running. In general, this is not an NDP riding and people here know that. While the Liberals seems to be behind on the ‘sign war’, I know a lot of NDP supporters who are talking about voting strategically for the Liberals. The Green Party will also see a decline as its current candidate isn't as well known as Monica Jarabek, and their national campaign is weaker. On the other hand, the surging NDP nationally might make them change their mind.
    An interesting factor will be the college and university kids. This is a suburban riding with many kids away for school. While there are some students in the riding, most of them live in London North Centre (Western) and London-Fanshawe. The Conservatives are probably hoping that the students will vote in their campus ridings like during the last election, rather than at Mom's house. If they come home for Easter or after exams, then there would be a modest boost to the Liberals/NDP/Green.
    So this is essentially a two-way race between the Liberals and the Conservatives, with the NDP and Greens as a potential spoiler. If the latter vote strategically, then the Liberals will take this seat. If they don't, then the Conservatives will win.
    11 04 22 In the Know
    To call the London paper a Liberal rag when it is owned by Quebecor (Sun Media) is a laugh, given all the editorials are through Sun's head office. This will be a close Liberal win because the Green vote won't be there this time due to a new candidate. The anyone but Harper vote in this riding goes to the Liberals.
    11 04 21 MH
    Here's another constituency where the ‘anybody but Harper’ attitude may make a difference. Furthermore, Ed Holder will have to hope that Liberals stay away from the polls in the numbers they did in 2006. Holder has the inside track, but it won't take much to nudge him out of it. Still TCTC.
    11 04 21 Gone Fishing
    As I posted anonymously last week (didn't intend to be so shy) The Diamond Jet ‘scandal’ is not sticking. This week the Liberal mayor did his best impersonation of Monte Hall and played Let't Make A Deal with the owners of Diamond now dialling back their outrageous loan request to a mere $2 million of yours and my money per month until Industry Canada can get this thing sorted out. Holder came out and stated again that the due diligence has to be done and no one is crying foul any more. There are still daily letters of support in the local rag for Holder which holds a Lib bias so if they are printing them there are hundreds more.
    In case you missed the episode the managers of Diamond Jet took door number two this time and got the Zonk prize a couple of key chains from Bombardier and my guess is the plant is in no shape to receive the loan because it is sucking wind and will be closed soon.
    11 04 19 prognosticator15
    I have waited for a while to call this riding because of the closeness of what until last week was mostly a two-way race. It is less certain than solid Liberal London North Center. I am ready to call it for the incumbent Conservative now, by a close margin and provided the whole national Conservative campaign does not explode in the last pre-election days (which is unlikely).
    The competition here now clearly shapes into a three-party contest where an NDP candidate, a relative unknown in spite of contesting this riding in 2008, has become a plausible contestant. It is apparent that Peter Ferguson, whose sole claim to fame is in unionizing some group at a University before becoming a full-time union official (something that is very controversial for many), has strong organization behind him, and is very active, in signage and voter outreach, perhaps even more than his Liberal opponent and about as much as Conservative Ed Holder. He may be very encouraged by the NDP rise in polling numbers, and just seems to forego the logic of national anti-Conservative coalition, seriously does his best to accomplish a more mundane task: get more NDP votes. His good organization may lift him into a 2nd or, with some luck on a polling day, even 1st place. He clearly has a constituency here, sections of Aboriginal voters, ethnic voters and welfare-dependent voters, traditional seniors and immigrants alike. Unlike the Liberals who may face backlash from some of potential voters, the NDP, because of the nature of its support, has no hesitations in promoting issues like loosening visa requirements for family unifications or decreasing the residency time to get Old Pension Plan Benefits (all three leftist Coalition parties supported the residency requirements reduction from 10 to 3 years in the last Parliament, but the NDP is most vocal on this issue, and only Conservatives oppose it, with Holder making a point about this in his literature). Peter Ferguson, however, has selected slogans that do not divide as much like OIS supplement etc., hoping for seniors vote. The riding is split half and half between well to do and less well to do sections, and the NDP now really has a chance.
    In spite of all this, I think the party still has an outside chance of winning only. Many issues it promotes are divisive and motivate pro-Holder vote to the polls, and those include many older Canadians. The Liberals are somewhat overshadowed in the riding now and may be in trouble, their outreach to traditional left voters is not as strong as Peter Ferguson's, yet their core voters, rather substantial, will not switch to the NDP. Vote splitting gives Holder a chance, this is no longer a two-way race as in the previous several elections.
    Ed Holder himself campaigns well so far. I have not noticed any 'fumbles' someone mentioned below, he did well in debates, and his campaign clearly concentrates on bringing to the polls those voting for him last time. A widely respected MP with an excellent attendance record (note these ongoing Layton/ NDP TV ads against Iggy attendance record, and Harper's to some extent? they may help Holder here), he has created solid communications lines with literature distribution to constituents beyond the election time. He is not a colourful movie star, but this middle-of-the-road urban riding prefers a working MP to a flashy one, kind of a good fit, and talking non-ideologically helps, he repeats the winning if boring campaign lines and shows everywhere how he works for London. This does not secure him a House of Commons seat, but gives him an advantage. In this your-average-Canadian riding (as close as it gets to it), just as someone notes below, national campaign matters, and as long as Harper continues to perform reasonably well on the campaign trail (and this is the case so far), the likeliest scenario is Ed Holder can get his proverbial 40% and this will be enough to defeat the rivals. The vote split on the left that I can see clearly now, makes me think Holder can hold this in case of good turnout of the same Holder voters as last time, but it will be close, and the Liberals might not be the runners-up with the best chance to unseat him this time.
    One other issue, Diamond. It is explained well in submissions below, I just add this is not an issue that will decide this riding. People do not say here, I will vote/not vote for Holder because of Diamond not being able to produce one of its planes in a nearby riding and because Holder does his best/ worst on the issue; such thing just does not happen. If it is an issue, it is no more than one of several dozen other issues, and the direction it works in is unclear. It emerged only because Liberal partisans (and sympathetic press) tried to exploit it at some point, but it got no traction. The Liberals might have hoped London Liberal mayor Joe Fontana's attempt to single out London's sole Conservative MP as one of the people he 'contacts' on this issue may create an issue, but this does not seem to be the case.
    So, it will be Holder most likely, but not by a large margin. And if someone derails him, my guess is the likeliest cause would be scary (but so far rather unsuccessful) Liberal health care ads. Seniors vote is strong here, but with parties promising about the same, even those are not as scary as they used to be. If they are, it may not be the Liberal candidate that benefits...
    11 04 19 RJF
    London is a big University town and that could upset the apple cart here as the University vote seems to be coming out in this election like almost never before that could play very well for all the progressive candidates and the Liberal party in particular.
    11 04 15
    The London paper has two or three letters to the editor everyday supporting Holder as a standout supporter of the riding and the city.
    Diamond's owner flew in from Austria, tried to play hold up and was called on it by Holder and even the local talk show hosts who are neutral at best and left leaning at worst have along with the paper begun to look at this like a guy borrowing $10 bucks and without paying it back coming back asking for $50.
    If that is the best the contenders can do (and they have done hardly that). Stick a fork in this one, it is OVER.
    Holder will widen lead from last time.
    The conservatives haven't spend a dime on the radio or tv yet and they have a ton to spend. My guess is polls are telling them not to waste the money.
    11 04 14 RJL
    Diamond will be a non factor. Citizens are learning that the aircraft spoken of is not first on the market but rather 2, 3 or 4th depending on who you listen to. Even employees say the government should do due diligence. Everyone knows Mayor Joe is a Lib so any chance to get a shot in he will, Ed is a solid character. Character wins.
    11 04 13
    In the real world Holder is being sought by national media for comments on Diamond even though the plant is in another London riding and the company is struggling to get this prototype to fly even with another $35 million here and there. $35,000,000 dollars pays 500 people $70,000 for one year. That is just the federal share - hardly the type of investment that speaks to great long term job growth. The other candidates are selling nothing but fear which is becoming a hard sell.
    The lawn signs on person's homes tell a story to me in my home riding there are simply not ton's for anyone else if you take away the public boulevards which to my understanding cannot vote.
    The sentimental attachments the Liberals think people have to this riding are off target. This is more of a bell weather riding than any in the region and it's going to be with a majority government come May 2
    11 04 11 LondonMike
    Earlier I said that Mr. Holder would likely be safe because of his Red Tory credentials. Even given that, his campaign has been disastrous. He's had a couple of fumbles, and he has handled the Diamond Aircraft issue terribly. He's going to lose this time around.
    11 04 11 Cory Martin
    Ed Holder seems to be digging himself a hole he won't be able to get out of. The Liberals have a great chance of bringing this back into the fold.
    11 04 10 joey joe joe
    Ed Holder's comments around the Diamond aircraft factory have damaged him. It would have been a tight race without the misstep but I think this will push it Liberal.
    11 04 07 Byron Montgomery
    Ed Holder went into the 2008 election very well-respected. He drew off some of the Liberal vote because he came off more as a Liberal than a Conservative. However, going over to the ‘dark side’ of Harperism has tarnished him a bit. If he loses, it's because the Holder Liberals return to vote for Doug Ferguson.
    11 04 06
    Where I'll be casting my vote, London West stays blue. The riding association is taking nothing for granted and is being very active and quick off the mark. Diamond Jet will be long forgotten by the debates and there is a large element out there who doesn't like the idea of government bailing out businesses that can't survive despite supposedly huge orders for their product. That's core conservative thinking and this most affluent part of London (excluding my cardboard shack) will support a likeable MP who has done a fantastic job in his rookie term.
    Oh and team blue is fully behind the candidate this time. There is no animosity between the Reform and PC roots this time around.
    11 04 05 M
    Ed Holder will end up losing this riding because of the whole Diamond Aircraft D-Jet issue. He continues to state due dilligence, but why a year Ed? Based on reports the paperwork was done a year ago. Unfortunately this has become the issue in all of London, and none of the three will go Conservative because of it.
    11 04 03 JH
    So far, the Green Party doesn't have a candidate and its Electoral District Association is de-registereted. In 2008, the GPC received more than 5,000 votes. It is likely that a substantial portion of that vote will bleed to the Liberals. Since the margin of victory was just 2,200 in 2008, the Liberals are going to win London West.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    Of the London ridings, this is without question the most favourable to the Tories. The main problem they face is the NDP got around 20% in the past two elections thus if enough of them vote strategically, this could tip this back to the Liberals as well as the Liberals have Doug Ferguson who is a former party operative and knows how to run strong campaigns. Also in the past three elections, the Tories got the same as they got province Wide (31% in 2004, 35% in 2006, and 39% in 2008) thus is they can maintain their support above 40% they should hold this, but if they fall below 40% in Ontario then the Liberals have a good shot at retaking this and if the Tories below 38% the Liberals will probably retake it.
    11 03 28 JP
    Holder has proven it's irrelavant what his personal convictions may be. He is the quintessential backbencher who will say and do as he is told. The Diamond aircraft announcement (laying off 200 workers) today will make it tough on him and easier on anyone named Ferguson.
    11 03 28 M
    This an old red tory kind of riding that has leaned Liberal in the past due to Jean Chretien's reign. Ed Holder is a genuinely likeable guy who is even admired by his political opponents. Success for him will depend on convincing voters that he holds red tory values like allowing the ‘little man’ to participate in the economy, low taxes along with some spending on social programs, and a focus on the local community.
    11 03 27 In the know
    Holder is no Red Tory. If he was, he would have voted like an urban MP and for the long gun registry. He is just another backbencher who will vote the way he is told. If there are any Red Tories left, they are a minority in a minority government.
    11 03 23 LondonMike
    The Dr. and Professor are calling this properly. Mr. Holder is more of a Red Tory, so he can pull voters that may otherwise vote Liberal. That said, I suspect this riding will go with the national trend; whichever party wins, this riding will go the same.
    10 10 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We are calling this TCTC but leaning CPC. We have claimed that many of the urban CPC pick ups in '08 were due to Liberal voters sitting out and will likely swing back to the Grits in the next election once Liberals kick themselves in the butt for not bothering to cast a ballot. We still maintain that prediction for other ridings but this one we think the CPC will hold on to. Why? Well first Sue Barns is not running, in other ridings like in Kitchner or Mississauga- Erindale the former Liberal incumbent is running. Second, this one is a fairly PC type riding and back in the 2004 electionprediction-go-round we were largely uncertain as to who would win even back then. Third, though there was a sit out, the CPC did gain votes relative to the '06 election while i other rides we are comparing to the CPC did not go any higher and in some even dropped in support. It's fair to say this one will be debated again and again and we may change out minds but we are leaning CPC for the moment.
    09 12 20 A.S.
    As of 2008, London's the perfect Parliamentary city: one Grit, one NDP, and now one CPC (with a brush from a second to the south). And London West has always been the most inherently Tory-ish seat anyway, so in light of Harpermania/Dionphobia, it isn't like the result was *too* much of a surprise...but as an emblem of how old stigmas die hard, Ed Holder still couldn't traverse the 40% barrier. And with reports of past Green standard-bearer Monica Jarabek falling into the Liberal camp, there's a ‘united vote’ that would have easily overcome Holder last time--of course, things never work out that clearly; and if we're talking about Iggy-in-the-doldrums + save-Glen-Pearson + the reflected glory of Irene Mathyssen and a targeted Elgin-M-L, who knows, things might favour the NDP at the expense of the Liberals instead. Anyway, it's hardly a rubber-stamp seat as it stands.
    09 09 27 Gone Fishing
    This was not a weak Liberal riding before last election. It was the only one with a Chretien era candidate and she was / is still well regarded by everyone including the current Conservative MP Ed Holder. I worked on campaigns against her for three successive elections and this one was not a gimme by any means. I'd say if the Liberals formed the minority government she'd still be there.
    Doug Ferguson is proof the Liberals want back in this riding. Or is it proof that only a die hard liberal will run? To most voters the presidents of political parties are not exactly high profile because of that alone. This is the guy who announces the results of a leadership review at convention for most of us. Doubt me? Without googling please name the current president of the five main (debate) parties?
    Ed Holder is not exactly a no name Conservative. He is known well in the community and across party lines. Even Liberal MP next door Glen Pearson has been seen working with him on many issues before they were both MPs and now.
    If the Tories don't stumble badly and right now that doesn't seem to be happening Ed Holder has little risk of losing.
    London generally is a government voting town. The past three pizza parliaments have given us the mix we have now (we'd have a bloc MP if we could even it all out!) If you get strong momentum one way on another this one can change.
    09 09 15 PB
    With the new candidate, Doug Ferguson, being immediate past president of the Liberal Party coupled with the disaster campaign of 2008, the Liberals' fortunes will rise in London West. Liberal voters will need some persuasion to return to the polls and Doug Ferguson is the man to do just that. Look for a flat or slight decline for the Tories and a return to the 23-24,000 plus votes for the Liberals.
    09 09 12 Proudfoot
    In the past few elections, the Liberal vote has dropped from 25,000 to 20,000. Doug Ferguson, past president of the Liberal Party, is the new candidate for the Liberals. Holder has only been an incumbent for less than a year, and London has an 11% unemployment rate. A recession is not exactly the best time to be a rookie incumbent. Also, there will be a new Green Party candidate who will likely not draw as many votes as Monica Jarabek did in 2008. If general turnout is higher than it was in the last election, the Liberals will likely win by at least double the margin they won by in 2006.
    09 09 07 R.O.
    Easy liberal win i highly doubt and i'm going to say its more than likely a hold for current mp Ed Holder at the moment. you can look at polls and try to come to conclusions but when you look at the numbers theres no denying the tory support in this riding is significant as they got over 20000 votes in the last 2 elections in this riding. the liberals ran strong as well but some of that strengh was due to the fact they had a longtime mp in Sue Barnes representing the riding. now she's gone from politics and the liberals are looking for a new candidate here and i don't think they will do as well here without her.
    09 09 03 pollwerker
    Easy Liberal win. The swing against the Conservatives will be more pronounced in ridings such as this one, where the weak Liberal campaign and turnout were the main reasons the Tories got in. Remember that the Harper government is LESS popular than it was a year ago when Harper was giving out stock tips.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    First time candidate Ed Holder increased the Tory vote by nearly 2% and won by more than 2,100. With the incumbent advantage, he'll hold the riding.

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