Prediction Changed
3:30 PM 29/03/2007

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London West
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Sue Barnes

2006 Result:
Sue Barnes **
23019
Al Gretzky
21690
Gina Barber
13056
Monica Jarabek
2900
Steve Hunter
328
Margaret Villamizar
59

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 03 17 Peg Leg Pete
99.234.197.75
MPs like Sue Barnes who survived the Martin government going down last time will be stronger this time. Al Gretzky isn't running this time and the NDP are nothing but a bad third place party in this part of London. I predict Barnes wins by 4000 votes this time.
08 02 23 I'm Always Right
69.49.38.86
London will be a sea of Liberal red after the next election. Sue Barnes weathered the worst storm she'll ever face in the last election. Since then Conservative fortunes in urban Ontario have sagged badly. Time to face the facts, the Conservatives have an iron grip on the rural, redneck ridings in Ontario but they're dead meat in the cities. Barnes doubles her margin of victory this time.
08 02 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
76.64.124.39
We're going to solidify our earlier post from TCTC to Liberal win. Sue Barnes has been around for a long time, people are comfortable with her. The previous election she was up against an even more famous name (if not the famous person himself) and there was the sponsorgate of course. Since these factors have been neutralized, her share of the vote should go up. However, Harper & Friends are now less scary and the demographics in ridings like this one are reasonably okay with their performance. In as such, we expect the vote to be similar to last election, provided Sue doesn't pull a Reg Alcock and take her win for granted.
07 12 20 seasaw
99.225.19.235
Sue Barnes has been such a good MP for such a long time, that it would be silly to even imagine she won't return. The last time, the race was close because of Al Gretzky and the sponsorship scandal. No such luck this time, Barnes'll take the riding by a landslide. This could be one of the very few ridings that the Liberal support can actually increase.
07 10 17 get real
64.231.57.157
I'm not saying the conservatives won't pick this up but it is no where near a certainty. I am more than certain that I am not the only Al Gretzky supporter who will be waiting for a cold day in hell before he votes for Ed Holder. There is a very bitter undercurrent here how he infiltrated the riding association and took away a legitimate contender when several other London area ridings (including his home riding) were open for him to jump aboard.
Holder is a bandwagon Conservative. He might just win but he won't carry it away. I think by his moves he might just have ensured Sue Barnes is back.
07 08 06 A.S.
74.99.222.209
The trouble with too many Tories in London (and a lot of pundits as well, who point to the Diane Haskett mayoralty as ‘proof’) is that they operate under the assumption that London is more reactionary/conservative than it is. Get real: this is an urban centre with a university undercurrent. The truer, more suitable ‘conservatism’ here is more along the lines of John Robarts moderation. The NDP's done spectacularly well here in recent elections; even in London West, their ‘weakest’ London seat, they cracked 20% last time. What all of this leads to is that a relative Grit nonentity like Sue Barnes has bluffed her way into being the southeasternmost federal Liberal in Ontario. Maybe teetering on the edge, ready to fall next time...but still there...
07 08 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
67.71.56.170
Perhaps there should be a bit of an update. Polls don't really show a certain CPC victory any more. Nor do they show an imminent Liberal victory. What does that say for this riding? TCTC, but advantage to Sue who's been MP for sometime and has warded off some strong CPC advances in recent elections.
07 04 27 J Adams
67.158.79.248
The CPC has made steady gains on Sue Barnes over the past two elections and Ed Holder has the experience and resources to continue that climb. If the tide turns and the Liberals win, Sue will be in cabinet. The same cannot be said for Holder who is an unlikely choice to make a CPC Cabinet, but that being said, London West voters love a winner and the way things are today, the CPC will remain in government. Holder, barely or Barnes, barely.
07 04 26 GB
134.117.187.38
The Conservatives have nominated an insurance broker. Despite his decent record of volunteer work, there is too much animosity towards the insurance industry (re: auto, businesses) for the candidate to perform any better than his party in this riding. The Tories don't stand a chance. Liberal hold.
Why can't the Tories find a decent candidate for this riding? Get a good candidate and they'd be a shoe-in. Until then, Sue Barnes is a shoe-in.
07 04 16 JP
74.110.20.239
Sue Barnes will likely sleepwalk her way to another victory here. No one seems to have any opinion about her--good or bad. She can continue to fly under the radar and comfortably win. The Greens probably think they'll do well, but not by running the same candidate who finished last in the municipal election. The NDP vote has continued to build over the last several elections, and Barber's convincing municipal win (especially in the London West polls) show voters here are open to voting for lefties. Her team will likely all be on the ground supporting her NDP successor. They won't win, but they will continue to grow. The Conservatives will put on a good show, but if they couldn't take it with a Gretzky running, they certainly won't do it with a insurance executive like Ed Holder.
07 03 24 GB
134.117.187.38
Gina Barber will not be running in this election, as she now sits on Board of Control. She seems to be fairly popular in the riding; she significantly increased the NDP vote count in the last election and subsequently won her seat on the Board of Control. Her absence will hurt the NDP, to the benefit of the Liberals and the Greens.
The Conservatives do still have a chance in this riding if they run a good, well-educated candidate who is not a Christian Fundamentalist. Their previous two candidates were lacking in one or both of those areas. Sue Barnes is lawyer who speaks decent French and would likely get a cabinet position if the Liberals win. She once won thanks only to the popularity of her party, but has now emerged as a worthy candidate.



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