Prediction Changed
10:46 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

London West
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Barnes, Sue
Christian Heritage
Bartley, Leslie
New Democratic
Ferguson, Peter Lawrence
Holder, Ed
Progressive Canadian
Hunter, Steve
Jarabek, Monica

Hon. Sue Barnes

2006 Result:
Sue Barnes **
Al Gretzky
Gina Barber
Monica Jarabek
Steve Hunter
Margaret Villamizar

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 11 R.O.
This one will be interesting to watch on election night to see what happens here. I suspect it will be very close and closer than last election. Sue Barnes has the advantage of being the mp but Ed Holder is still a good candidate for the conservatives. Stephen Harper has also visited London this election a sign the party sees some potential in this area. A lot could depend on voter turnout and which party does a better job of getting there supporters out on election day.
08 10 11 Gone Fishing
In every election Sue Barnes has knocked on my door on a major street despite a big blue sign on my lawn. She hasn't been by with her entourage this time and that is what is running out for here this time.
Tons of polls support this riding going to our team. While Ekos shows Ontario a tie, and Nanos is tight with a one point spread favouring the liberals, In all polls last election the Ontario numbers showed a five to seven point lead for the liberals in Ontario. Finally Strategic counsel's polls show area code 519 support is solid.
This is one of those battleground ridings and the strat poll has been following the area tightly since the writ was dropped. Though many other polls showed Conservative vote sagging a week ago, this area 519 is not one of them.
This riding is the most in play for conservatives of the three in London. It was SOOOOooooo close last time and the team is much better organized than I thought and I see a lot of smiles on my friends in the campaign office. These are people I fought along for four elections and they are behaving differently.
08 09 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Barnes in a squeeker. As said before, she's a good constituency MP and the NDP doesn't have the very high profile Gina Barber. NDP vote will go down and more likely than not it will tread towards Ms Barnes. Not doubting a good fight will be given by the CPC. They are solid in this riding and being a bad year for the Liberals they could still take it. However many are happier voting for the 'devil they know' and they know they'll get great work from MP's not like the Liberals have a chance at forming government and implimenting the carbon tax, etc etc...
08 09 29 Gone Fishing
I also want to express that I think Al Gretzky was a well liked candidate and had a riding association that worked hard for him. TO call him a star candidate was only to promote the last name of his famous nephew who by the way played no part in the campaign. Al was a Mr. Common man not a star. His appeal was that he was one of us and not an elite.
When the campaign kicked off I was sure Barnes would win based on the contents of my post which included a lot of sketicism about whether the volunteers would come out to work for Ed Holder.
As an Al Gretzky friend and active member of the CPC EDA, I was very skeptical. However as posted lately, I have seen my worries were not justified. Furthermore Ed Holder has respect of the community. While I have previously poked fun at the fact a current Liberal MP (Glen Pearson) vocally supported his candidacy, it shows that he is respected. It makes Liberal attacks hard given he has been so involved with the causes they say only they defend.
Something else I think can put this over the top. It may not account for tens of thousands of votes but it account for a couple of thousand.
Ed Holder would be considered more moderate. He does not express extreme Christian views as did a previous candidate Mike Meneer. He is also not a stereotypical Reform party member. There was considerable traction for Al because he was a Reform organizer but what I see different is that the PC wing of the party is coming back, while the Reform members have no choice but to back Holder.
They will stay with Ed as opposed to going left or voting CHP which is not an option for a true voice in parliament. The right are nervous of fracture from experience and from what they see with the fight on the left as the Liberals have abandoned the middle.
08 09 29 BAM
Barnes is a constituent MP meaning her personal popularity can overcome national polling trends. The NDP is not running a known candidate by his own admission in the London Free Press. Where do you think those NDP votes are going to bleed to? To the Liberals obviously. I say Barnes by about 4000 votes
08 09 28 I'm Always Right
Gone Fishing and I don't agree on a lot of ridings but we do agree on London West staying Liberal. Sue Barnes defeated the high profile Al Gretzky in 2006 by a couple thousand votes. The Conservatives poured everything they had into London West last time and came up short. This time all the Conservatives could come up with was the untested and weak Ed Holder. Looking at London it's clear the Conservatives have targeted London-Fanshawe this time and don't see an oportunity to defeat Barnes.
London West will still be Barnes country when this campaign is over.
08 09 27 Gone Fishing
I am now calling for a Conservative pickup here. As a riding association member I was questioning whether Holder would be able to unite the association members to mount a campaign.
Well, I am here to say that the association is firmly behind Ed and there is no apparent animosity from the Reform wing. There is lots of money behind this campaign and the sign war is being waged very well with tired old and faded Barnes signs in many intersections met with new bold CPC Holder signs. They can't even get the signs on private lawns fast enough. Not because of lack of help but because of demand.
Stockwell Day stopped by the campaign office today and there was a good sized crowd there to see him. The neighbouring Fanshawe Candidate Mary Lou Ambrogio was also there and Mr. Day was well received.
This riding only needed to sway five voters at each poll to get over the top. The internal polling charts hidden away in the back show a lot of Blue areas and I think this is now a solid win.
08 09 25 AV
The most conservative of the three urban London ridings, I see the Conservatives taking this one. I don't really think Al Gretzky was such a star candidate that the Conservatives will lose a lot of support without him. Plus the Liberals are dropping a fair amount of the support they had last election, so I see this as a Conservative win.
08 09 10 RWA
We'll have to hold off on calling this one until the end. I'd say this seat is somewhere between 145 -150 on the Conservative hit list. If they win a majority, this riding will be one of them but if not, it will stay Liberal.
08 09 01 Gone Fishing
For reasons others have posted this is a Barnes win;
-Good, no, GREAT constituency work
-Gina Barber had strong NDP support is now a city controller not running
-Conservative supporters will stay home
-No party seems poised to seize a majority government
The Holder takeover of the riding association and stealing the nomination stings with a lot of long time party operatives. He offers nothing to Conservatives as he is a band wagon candidate at best who had a LIBERAL CANDIDATE (current MP for LNC Glenn Pearson) introduce/endorse/not endorse him at his nomination run! Only way he wins is if Harper is poised for something bigger than another minority and/or Stephane Dion is seen as even worse then he now appears.
Barnes wins if;
-Things stay as they are nationally
-She campaigns as well as she has last couple of runs
-Gretzky decides to run as an independent (vote splitting)
As posted by another, yes it will be a cold day in hell for a lot of us before we support this man, as my name says I am going fishing, taking this one off, and supporting the London North Centre CPC candidate Paul Van Merbergen (sp?) financially since I can't vote for a conservative in another riding and don't have one here in London West. Isn't it ironic that Holder has a conservative to vote for in his riding and I don't????? I wonder if will even put an x on a ballot this election let alone for a CPC candidate.
The Harper gang blew this one, I am not saying Al Gretzky could have won but it would have been an honour to work to have him there as a common man candidate. As other postees have stated Holder is not cabinet material and should have been persuaded to run in a riding where he could vote for himself!
The CPC needs to get serious in candidate selection. Past christian fundamentalists aside (that was three elections ago) Gretzky was brave enough to stand up when it wasn't fashionable to be conservative. Surely there is someone in town who can take this nomination over the top while staying true to party principals? Evidentl that person is not on the 2008 ballot.
08 08 18 A.H.
This riding will be a Liberal hold - the Conservative candidate has not been active, and while he is known in some circles, does not have any name recognition with the average voter. He also ran a disastrous campaign in a neighbouring riding back in 1993 that everyone seems to have forgotten. Big split here between the reform/alliance camp (that backed Al Gretzky) and the PC side of the party means Barnes' experienced campaign machine that will deliver again - easily.
08 07 29 SCW
Ms. May ran in London North Centre, not London West. (North Centre is the university riding, hence her strong showing.)
Sue Barnes should hold on to this seat without too much trouble. She is running against a Conservative who is a relatively well know city councillor, so there is an outside chance this riding would flip Conservative - but probably only if the Conservatives start polling in majority territory.
08 06 24 Initial
London is where Elizabeth May came second place in a bi-election, there are no ‘sure things’ in politics. The person with the most votes wins. The London West Green Party of Canada Candidate, Monica Jarabek, is definitely an underdog, she is also well-loved in this community. She is not a radical and has had huge impact on municipal policy.
08 06 02 T.V.
Barring catastrophe, Sue Barnes is very safe. The Tory vote was inflated last time by their candidate's last name, and she still won reasonably comfortably.
08 03 17 Peg Leg Pete
MPs like Sue Barnes who survived the Martin government going down last time will be stronger this time. Al Gretzky isn't running this time and the NDP are nothing but a bad third place party in this part of London. I predict Barnes wins by 4000 votes this time.
08 02 23 I'm Always Right
London will be a sea of Liberal red after the next election. Sue Barnes weathered the worst storm she'll ever face in the last election. Since then Conservative fortunes in urban Ontario have sagged badly. Time to face the facts, the Conservatives have an iron grip on the rural, redneck ridings in Ontario but they're dead meat in the cities. Barnes doubles her margin of victory this time.
08 02 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We're going to solidify our earlier post from TCTC to Liberal win. Sue Barnes has been around for a long time, people are comfortable with her. The previous election she was up against an even more famous name (if not the famous person himself) and there was the sponsorgate of course. Since these factors have been neutralized, her share of the vote should go up. However, Harper & Friends are now less scary and the demographics in ridings like this one are reasonably okay with their performance. In as such, we expect the vote to be similar to last election, provided Sue doesn't pull a Reg Alcock and take her win for granted.
07 12 20 seasaw
Sue Barnes has been such a good MP for such a long time, that it would be silly to even imagine she won't return. The last time, the race was close because of Al Gretzky and the sponsorship scandal. No such luck this time, Barnes'll take the riding by a landslide. This could be one of the very few ridings that the Liberal support can actually increase.
07 10 17 get real
I'm not saying the conservatives won't pick this up but it is no where near a certainty. I am more than certain that I am not the only Al Gretzky supporter who will be waiting for a cold day in hell before he votes for Ed Holder. There is a very bitter undercurrent here how he infiltrated the riding association and took away a legitimate contender when several other London area ridings (including his home riding) were open for him to jump aboard.
Holder is a bandwagon Conservative. He might just win but he won't carry it away. I think by his moves he might just have ensured Sue Barnes is back.
07 08 06 A.S.
The trouble with too many Tories in London (and a lot of pundits as well, who point to the Diane Haskett mayoralty as ‘proof’) is that they operate under the assumption that London is more reactionary/conservative than it is. Get real: this is an urban centre with a university undercurrent. The truer, more suitable ‘conservatism’ here is more along the lines of John Robarts moderation. The NDP's done spectacularly well here in recent elections; even in London West, their ‘weakest’ London seat, they cracked 20% last time. What all of this leads to is that a relative Grit nonentity like Sue Barnes has bluffed her way into being the southeasternmost federal Liberal in Ontario. Maybe teetering on the edge, ready to fall next time...but still there...
07 08 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Perhaps there should be a bit of an update. Polls don't really show a certain CPC victory any more. Nor do they show an imminent Liberal victory. What does that say for this riding? TCTC, but advantage to Sue who's been MP for sometime and has warded off some strong CPC advances in recent elections.
07 04 27 J Adams
The CPC has made steady gains on Sue Barnes over the past two elections and Ed Holder has the experience and resources to continue that climb. If the tide turns and the Liberals win, Sue will be in cabinet. The same cannot be said for Holder who is an unlikely choice to make a CPC Cabinet, but that being said, London West voters love a winner and the way things are today, the CPC will remain in government. Holder, barely or Barnes, barely.
07 04 26 GB
The Conservatives have nominated an insurance broker. Despite his decent record of volunteer work, there is too much animosity towards the insurance industry (re: auto, businesses) for the candidate to perform any better than his party in this riding. The Tories don't stand a chance. Liberal hold.
Why can't the Tories find a decent candidate for this riding? Get a good candidate and they'd be a shoe-in. Until then, Sue Barnes is a shoe-in.
07 04 16 JP
Sue Barnes will likely sleepwalk her way to another victory here. No one seems to have any opinion about her--good or bad. She can continue to fly under the radar and comfortably win. The Greens probably think they'll do well, but not by running the same candidate who finished last in the municipal election. The NDP vote has continued to build over the last several elections, and Barber's convincing municipal win (especially in the London West polls) show voters here are open to voting for lefties. Her team will likely all be on the ground supporting her NDP successor. They won't win, but they will continue to grow. The Conservatives will put on a good show, but if they couldn't take it with a Gretzky running, they certainly won't do it with a insurance executive like Ed Holder.
07 03 24 GB
Gina Barber will not be running in this election, as she now sits on Board of Control. She seems to be fairly popular in the riding; she significantly increased the NDP vote count in the last election and subsequently won her seat on the Board of Control. Her absence will hurt the NDP, to the benefit of the Liberals and the Greens.
The Conservatives do still have a chance in this riding if they run a good, well-educated candidate who is not a Christian Fundamentalist. Their previous two candidates were lacking in one or both of those areas. Sue Barnes is lawyer who speaks decent French and would likely get a cabinet position if the Liberals win. She once won thanks only to the popularity of her party, but has now emerged as a worthy candidate.

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