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London West

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:24 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:32 AM 19/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Gina Barber
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Sue Barnes
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Rebecca Bromwich
PC Party/Parti PC:
Steve Hunter
Mike Menear
Margaret Villamizar

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
London West (100.0%)
Hon. Sue Barnes

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,614 49.42%
10,032 21.00%
9,713 20.33%
3,570 7.47%
849 1.78%

London West
(221/221 polls, 81567/81567 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Jeffery Bennett
Email: [hidden]
Free Press/New PL poll shows Barnes at 41% and Menear at 38%. NDP trailing in the low teens. A lot of people had written Barnes off in this one, and the fact that she's still ahead with 3 days to go probably means she'll win - just - on election day.
24/06/04 Hieronymous
Email: [hidden]
I think Mike Menear has a well organized team and will get his vote out on Monday, I also know from past elections that Liberal Sue Barnes will do the same and Gina Barber is in it as well and Layton seems to be the only party leader who is coming back to town which could help. I call this riding a vote split win for the CPC but slim, less than 1000 votes.
24/06/04 RWA
LFP's poll in this riding has it at 41%-38 for Barnes, a statistical tie. It's going to come down to GOTV, and Conservative supporters are angrier and more motivated.
24/06/04 JDaws
Email: [hidden]
I don't know where people are getting this from, but Menear and his campaign never attempted to suggest that Barnes nor Barber stole his signs. They simply pointed out the fact that the signs were missing and they believed a massive theft effort. The Liberal leaning free press reported it after investigating it. Menear's campaign has been well managed, recently the Free Press did an article discussing Menear's campaign manager in detail. He has run a masterful campaign, probably generating over $150,000 in earned media (including nation stories about the sign theft, etc.). Menear himself is personable and easy going. He sticks to the party line but adds a friendly and nice face to it. I don't think Menear could've done much more in this campaign except for going negative which he's done a good job staying out of the frey with. I would look for Menear to gain on the recent Free Press poll showing him within the margin of error and squeak out an election day victory. Both Barnes and Menear have the highest amount of committed voters in the whole city, Barber is doing an aweful job around 13%, from what I've heard she's even doing some voter coordination and suggesting to her people to vote Liberal so Menear is not successful. Look for Menear to have a large media and also personal canvassing blitz this weekend and leave Barnes in the dust. Menear by 2 - 5%, no question he takes this thing.
23/06/04 ra300z
Email: [hidden]
Barber (NDP) will absolutely not win in this riding. The recent London Free Press poll indicates that Gina Barber is running at abou 13%. Menear and Barnes are neck and neck. This one really should be changed to "too close"
23/06/04 Mr Jiggie
Email: [hidden]
The latest acumen poll of London-West taken between June 18-21;
41% Sue Barnes
39% Mike Menear
4.1% Margin of error
If you think this is a safe seat for Sue Barnes, then you really do need a reality check.
One note, the poll was undertaken during the week where the Conservatives were hit by everyone, and it is within the margin of error. I think the Undecided vote will not vote Liberal, they will wait for the London Free Press to show the polls, if they see its a clear battle between the Cons and Libs, then they will vote Cons just to beat the Libs.
This is too close to call, and not a Liberal safe seat.
23/06/04 J.Seigler
Email: [hidden]
The Barnes campaign machine will not give this riding up without a fight. This is a close one, but they will pull it out in the end. It is well known ithat Sue's campaign machine is the best oiled in the region. These people know what they are doing. It's true that Sue Barnes doesn't have a high profile - that's why her opponents always think she will be easy to knock off. They forget that winning elections is more than profile...it is hard work. On election day the conservatives won't know what hit them./TD>
23/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
While I don't believe that every Tory is a radical, it has pretty much become their party brand. In regards to the Tory running here, the Conservative poster said it best when he said that Menear is opposed to equal marriage. I'm afraid three courts in the land have already ruled that denying homosexuals the right to marry is an injustice. Willfully supporting an injustice seems pretty radical to me, I'm afraid.
On this same issue, we saw Barnes save the day as the MP who cast one of the deciding votes to have the Liberals support same-sex marriage. With this and her other contributions in mind, Sue is actually a very noteworthy MP, sorry Matt.
Sue is in for a fight, but Gina Barber's campaign is in shambles, allowing Sue to pick up the votes from the left while trying to secure some more from the more right-wing voters in her locale. Barber continues to miss opportunities to campaign with Mathyssen and Swan, the two strongest NDP candidates in the area so it is starting to look like she wants to lose the election or something.
As for Menear, he's the competition, but the Tories are sliding in the polls and Sue's campaigners are used to having to fight to get her in. She may be the most left-wing and welcoming Liberal in London, but she's going to take Menear to school.
23/06/04 Mr Jiggie
Email: [hidden]
carew: you are going out on a real limb here, the NDP had the support of 7% of voters in this area, I think they will get even less of a vote, because of a weak candidate, who is not even worth mentioning.
As far as the signs. They were stolen, I know because the one on my front lawn, was stolen during the night. I was up and I saw a truck leaving quickly when I opened my front door. NO ONE ACCUSED SUE BARNES, but the level of organization that it takes to steal 500 signs, is not something the NDP Can put together, People draw their own conclusions. The Liberals are a walking talking criminal organization. Just wait, the fallout of the sponsorship scandal is not over.
Sue is a goner, she has no supporters, at the televised debate, she came alone, where all the other Candidates had other people with them. Sue spoke like she was giving a lecture, instead of really speaking to the voters like a real person, she did not connect with the audience.
London West is going Blue, if not, its at the very least worthy of movement to the too close to call column.
23/06/04 Peter H
Email: [hidden]
I feel Sue Barnes has a good chance at winning this riding. At the all-candidates meeting last Monday at the Convention Centre, she performed very well. She answered the questions in 45 seconds without any splurge (verbal diahhrea). I also felt that she was the one who identified what the questionner was asking and answered the question most of the time. Her experience as a federal politician really showed at the meeting and I believe she could once again represent the riding of London West.
21/06/04 carew
Email: [hidden]
I'll go out on a real limb here based solely on Barber's massive victory in the sign campaign and say that she stands a very good chance of getting elected now. In the parts of the riding I frequent, which is a good percetnage of it, it's not close. Barnes and Menear signs on private lawns are rare sightings and Barber is all over. I think the media is missing (perhaps deliberately) a remarkable story, which is the potential victory of the NDP in 3 london ridings. A visit from Layton certainly wouldn't hurt and surely is justified. For those skeptical, let me also surmise that the NDP supporters are more likely voters. I suppose the Freeps cooperation with Menear on his lame whining about stolen (non-existent) signs and the (surely coincidental) heavy Freeps advertising Meanear is doing could throw him over the top, but seriously this looks like a tight 3 horse race still. Key question: can Menear keep his Christian hard right views quiet for 8 more days?
21/06/04 Adam
Email: [hidden]
As for the results of this election, Sue should not have a problem beating Mike Menear. Last year he was an organizer for John Manley's leadership campaign, so his attacks on the Liberal party are hypocritical. Also, Menear's political opportunism will not sit well with London West voters. He is well financed so he should be able to give Sue a solid run, but his campaign infrastructure is not well managed. His team is mainly Alliance supporters who do not have a lot of experience running a campaign of this scale. Additionally, they have begun to look desperate, attempting cheap media stunts like claiming 500 of their signs were stolen and trying to blame Sue's team.
20/06/04 Mathew Varsava
Email: mathew_varsava@hotmail.com
This riding will be going Conservative. This is regardless of the quality of the Conservative candidate. Whether you like Menear or not, this riding will follow the regional trending.
Sue Barnes has been an un-remarkable MP who doesn't have a strong tie into her community (a la Pat O'Brien, Steve Peters, or even Joe Fontana - who I also think will be defeated).
20/06/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
John Turner's 75th birthday party was in Ottawa last week. A number of interesting quotes were reported, including that the Liberals are at risk of only holding one London seat.
20/06/04 Moriarty
Email: [hidden]
Gina Barber will come up the middle. With the New Democrats at 26% in Ontario (according to Sun Media of all sources). London is a bellweather so that 26% will translate into a vote split on the right(Liberal and Reform-Conservative) and Barber will pull a surprise victory.
18/06/04 Mr Jiggie
Email: [hidden]
Stop saying Every Conservative is a radical, Michael Menear is not pro life, he is pro choice.
Michael Menear believes that marriage is between a man and a woman, but hes willing to extend gays and lesbians the right of common law marriage, and equal rights on all fronts.
15/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
"As this is the most Conservative seat in London"...there are only 4 seats in London, genius. This statement could not be more useless.
Sue is having a rough fight, that is true. But she is a strong women with a good record. She is having to battle the tories in her riding, but with someone as scary as the ultra right-wing Michael Menear running, Sue can count on stealing the socially progressive tories that are horrified by the intolerant, almost facist leanings of many CPC candidates.
She has pulled it out in the past and she isn't licked yet. Of the 4 London MPs, she is the most progressive and highly respected. It may be a photo-finish, but she's going back to Ottawa. Menear can too, if he wants, but he'll be watching from the gallery.
14/06/04 hieronymous
Email: [hidden]
I admit to my conservative bias but I do share the opinion that this is a winnable riding for the CPC. Haskett had incredible support and would have been welcomed by many had she run. Menear, her former law partner is going to surely attract her support and the sign battle (both on the road and in front of homes) is I believe stronly in his camp. The social conservatives were not as strong a presence in the Alliance as one would think but they are supportive of Mike. This riding was one of the hotbed ridings of the formation of this new party (Remember the United ALternative convention held in London). Though urban it is surrounded by a conservative countryside and has a good chance of turning if a true tidal change occurs.
True this was not a "split vote" riding in the sense that the combined vote would have toppled the libs in 2000 but the MONEY to promote the parties was split and that seems to have joined forces for the most part.
Barnes is of course one of the least known (effective?) of the liberal back benchers and she and her material has not been seen in my neighbourhood. I would look for more Liberal support to run off to the NDP than suggested by others with parts of old south occupied by generation X and student voters.
12/06/04 JC
Email: [hidden]
Well here we are 2 weeks to go and Menear is everywhere. He's got more signs, bigger signs and better locations than Barnes. The tell-tale signal for the signs is the private yardsigns, where Menear is cleaning up and virtually doubling Barnes. Even in old south, Barnes' perceived strong-hold, Menear has a significant advantage in signs. The Globe & Mail, London Free Press and National Post have all mentioned how this is one of the top races for the Conservative Party in Ontario. I thought Menear would win this thing before the tide turned and the Conservative Party rose in the polls Nation-wide and I know they'll win now. Barnes has been virtually invisable during the campaign, well Menear has a busy headquarters with phones running and canvassers out daily. I got a Menear postcard in the mail personalized and signed by Mike, later in the week Mike stoped by my house and visited...I call that personal attention and Menear is doing it. Menear's campaign team have authored an amazing campaign plan, a community based campaign backed-up with massive media and mailing programs. Most campaigns do one or the other, Menear is doing both and doing both well. He got lucky when he scored his campaign manager, who apparently has a long history of political campaign victories dating back to the mid 90's. The grassroots campaigning will work in London West and just like the Free Press says, Menear is one of the top-20 races in Ontario and far more likely to win as compared to London North Center or London Fanshaw. I would look for Menear to top 50% in the polls as I expect Barber to easily take her 10 - 15%, leaving Barnes with the rest.
An easy victory for Menear and the conservatives.
10/06/04 Priscilla
Email: [hidden]
As this is the most Conservative seat in London - this one is gone (and especially now that the Toronto Star is predicting a Conservative minority)
Menear is winning big in the sign war
10/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
First Bob Wood, now Michael Menear: boy, London West is a draw for Tory kooks and wingnuts--what is this, B.C. or something? While LW is the most affluent, Conservative-friendly London seat, the gradations among the city's constituencies aren't so clearly drawn as one may think--it isn't exactly Don Valley West vs Davenport, you know. Thus while NDP is weakest here, it's only relatively speaking and a bit of a strategic illusion; the "inner city" parts (Oxford Park, Manor Park, the Wortley Rd corridor etc) are pretty consistent with the ethos of "Marion Boyd" country and Laytonism. To claim that the NDP are "nowhere" and automatically headed for single digits is a bit brash for a riding where, provincially in 2003 (and without a strategic endorsement), they came within a whisker of earning back a deposit; they'll only be single-digit decimated if, as in previous elections, the Grits galvanize the left--and that's no longer such a given, even if Sue Barnes succeeds in portraying herself as a Carolyn Bennett-style apron-for-all-progressives...
03/06/04 z300
Email: jwsmith00@hotmail.com
Although this will be a close riding, it is definatly going to the Conservative party. This is the most conservative riding in the city.
03/06/04 519 Observer
Email: [hidden]
I said before that Barnes would take this riding. Now I'm not so sure. Barnes and her campaign team have been rather invisible in this riding, and Menear's people seem to be EVERYWHERE. There's enough people annoyed at the Liberals to let the Conservatives come in, plus all the Haskett/DeCicco supporters will likely vote for Menear. I still think it's too close to call because the NDP are a non-factor in the riding, so they won't suck too many votes away from the Liberals. This riding should have been a cakewalk for the Liberals, now it could go either way.
03/06/04 RWA
Many are writing off Menear because he's a social conservative, but let's not forget that this is a city that twice elected Diane Haskett mayor. Her support base would have been larger in west London than any other part of the city.
The lawn signs in the riding are decidedly in favour of Menear, especially in Westmount. The NDP is doing well in Old South, eating into a region of the riding Barnes needs to win by a large margin.
The momentum in the polls in Ontario is swinging towards the Tories. The party is targeting this riding more than rural Elgin-Middlesex-London. The incumbant is unspectacular and Menear seems to be well-funded. All of this leads me to believe that he will win a close race on June 28, probably the only London riding to turn blue.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
To Mr. or Mrs. I-did-not-post-my-name, who responded to our posting, thank you for your comments. We try to come to a logical an non-partisan concensus before we submit anything. Pertaining to our earlier posting, we do agree with you that if voters become very cranky (and they most certainly are becoming that as every day passes) they would vote just to "kick the bums out" as you so accuratly put it. As of now, if this riding was in a predominantly rural area, we'd definitly call a conservative win. The thing is, this is an urban area, and candidates who are hard-core social conservatives don't always share the same values with many urbanites, who tend to be more progressive. This will scare alot of people and when a no win situation occurs, many people do go with the "devil they know". If the liberals continue to slide, then the conservatives will take this riding, despite many people's misgivings about the candidate's view points. If the liberals rebound somewhat then the voters will hold their noses and vote Sue Barns back in.
For the record, we were both just in London this weekend for a conference and it looks like one heck of a race for all parties in all three ridings. London is one of several hot spots in this election.
29/05/04 Jiggie
Email: [hidden]
Well, it is true. The Conservatives are outspending the Liberals as of now. The Conservative Signs are much bigger and there sure are plenty of them, but the election is not over. The London West Conservative Headquarters is huge, the biggest in Ontario. But the Liberals could be saving the best for last week. Even with the Conservatives going up in the polls, London West loves a winner. Mike has to make up 3869 votes to beat Sue (assuming you add up the PC and Alliance vote), but some Liberals may stay home in protest of Martin. Mike is almost too nice to be a Politician, but he has some amazing group of people around him, because of that he will get far in Ottawa. Gina Barber (NDP) is not even worth noting. But if I had to make a prediction right now, I would go with the Conservatives for the following reasons. (1) Sue Barnes has not accomplished anything in 12 years of service, careers have been broken and made in that time. Sue Barnes is the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice, that’s probably the worst back bencher job. I think people are sick of her personally not representing London, (2) she voted against the traditional definition of marriage, and in a Conservative riding, that’s a no-no. Mike may not have the familiar name, but at this point people are (3) so sick of the Liberals, that they will vote for the biggest opposition party. Another reason why the Conservatives will win is because of (4) high voter turnover within Conservative ranks and volunteers. At their last leadership vote, almost 80% of the riding went out to vote Stephen Harper as their new leader, 15% voted for Belinda. This riding is pro Harper, one visit from Stephen Harper, and this riding is in the bag for the Conservatives.
Final Prediction
Mike Menear 44%
Sue Barnes 40%
Gina Barber 10%
Other 4%
While I usually find your input very logical Bear and Ape, I'm a bit lost on this take on things. Having the Conservatives field a social conservative isn't as dividing as many (mostly fiscal "progressives") make it out to be. Plus, with the way this campaign is going so far, people are getting moodier and moodier by the minute. If the mood for change is so great by the end of June, people won't care so much about gay-marriage, abortion etc.; it'll be the ol' "kick the bums out" affect that we saw in the fall. Will they go NDP? Some might (see life-long, Joe Clark red tories), but I would say the majority would go to Canada's *other* governing party, which this time around is embodied in the CPC. CPC take by 2% is my take.
23/05/04 Mr Saturday Night
Email: [hidden]
The fact that the Conservatives are going to outspend their rivals doesn't mean they are going to win, as evidenced in the Provincial Election in many ridings. I got a Menear flyer addressed to me thanking me for my support when I have never even talked to their people. That's money well spent! For a 10 year MP, Sue Barnes has no profile. People don't think ill of her--they just don't think of her at all. The NDP has national momentum and while a London West victory is a bit of a stretch, they will garner at least 20% of the vote as people that are unimpressed with Barnes, and scared of Menear, will vote for Barber. She has a long history in local party politics and the NDP activists will be out en masse to campaign for her. Even for such a small "c" conservative riding, I can't imagine a right wing radical like Menear will get any respect.
18/05/04 J. Adams
Email: [hidden]
London West has been represented by Hon. Sue Barnes for the previous years. She has been a quite and reliable liberal vote throughout. She has had no major problems, though hasn't done anything overly positive either. Mike Menear is a well respected and active attorney. He has an excellent campaign team, youth VOLUNTEERS, and strong organizational effort in place. He has had multiple mailings riding wide and is well set for an upset victory. If the election were held today, Menear would easily garner 35% and is well within striking range of Barnes. I would expect Menear to continue to rise in the polls as his name ID increases, which will continue to happen with such a strong mail approach. Menear has the best campaign manager in the race, so his strategy is in good hands, I just hope he has the money because they're certainly spending it. The NDP is useless here and won't be a factor.
Final results:
Menear 45%
Barnes 45%
NDP 8%
Others 2%
06/05/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Provincially, this has been a conservative riding, but Bob Wood recently lost his seat to Labour Minister Chris Bentley. While Bentley's success was probably due to a provincial trend (and those annoying people waving signs at Byron Baseline and Commissioners), the Federal Liberals have not suffered quite enough to lose London West.
Liberal Sue Barnes has been a virtually invisible MP during her time in office, but I don't believe she will have trouble retaining her seat. She will be just as irrelevant in a Martin government and she was in Chrétien's.
The Conservative candidate Michael Menear is widely viewed as a Christian Fundamentalist (he's really not THAT bad), and I know for a fact that he is paying some of his youth "supporters" to do telephone polls. (I hope Menear doesn't read this and fire them, because I'm sure they need the money.) I believe at least some of his meagre support is illusion. While the rightwing vote was split in 2000, 1 + 1 will not equal 2, and will certainly not equal 3.
Although there are a lot of dedicated NDP members in London West, there are very few NDP supporters who aren't members. Candidate Gina Barber is a nice lady, but this riding will NEVER go NDP. They'll get about 10% of the vote. But at least their youth supporters are genuine.
My money is on Sue Barnes, but Menear could win in a very bizarre upset. This upset would have to be part of a national trend because people in this riding tend to go with the status quo. (Believe me!) The Conservatives might have gone somewhere with a stronger candidate. This riding has too many people who would rather die than vote NDP. Liberals will get 60%, Conservatives 30%, NDP 10%.
21/04/04 AlanSmithee
Email: [hidden]
Another bellwether riding that's way too early to call yet. London West has voted with the majority in every provincial and federal election over the past 50 years. Sue Barnes is a virtual unknown even after ten years of being the MP. Michael Menear may lose some red Tory support, but he still is electable - after all, Bob Wood was the MPP for 8 years here and he was probably the biggest Christian Right MPP in the Harris government. The NDP will not be a factor at all. As is usual in London West, there are two relatively weak candidates for the two major parties, and the one who gets the seat will be the one whose party forms the government.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Sue Barnes has been largely unremarkable. The only thing either of us can recall of her is some minor scandal about her husband and Labatt brewery a few years back (don't remember much else about it). The Conservative candidate is being extremely religious and thus probably a strong social conservative will scare away small c conservatives. The NDP are too weak here to win (look at the other two London ridings for a potential NDP win). Seems to us that it's a no-win situation for London West voters. Conventional wisdom says that voters will go for "The devil they know" and re-elect Sue Barnes but with falling LIberal fortunes we're not so sure. Too close to call and we'll wait until an election is called before we make any definitive predictions.
13/04/04 Chris
Email: [hidden]
Sue Barnes will likely face a very tough fight from the Conservatives. This is the weakest seat in the city of London for the NDP - they will not be a factor here at all, unless it is to act as spoiler by siphoning just enough Liberal votes away to bring Barnes down in a 2-way fight.
20/03/04 519 Observer
Email: [hidden]
An easy Liberal win. Liberal incumbent Sue Barnes isn't all that noteworthy, Conservative candidate Michael Menear is considered to be an extreme religious conservative. Red Tories will likely vote Liberal or stay home.
NDP candidate hasn't been announced yet. They'll likely get less than 10% of the vote no matter who they nominate.
18/03/04 RWA
This riding is a bellwether that could go Conservative depending on the momentum of the overall campaign. We'll have to wait until the campaign gets going to call this one.

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