Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington

Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Baranyi, John

Lee, Ralph

Reid, Scott

Remington, David

Smyth, Doug

Scott Reid

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • hastings-frontenac-lennox-and-addington (140/221 Polls)
  • lanark-carleton (102/236 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 21 J.J.
    The closure of the prison farms is a hot topic and true blue are now red with anger.... Mr Reid had many proverbial pitch forks aimed at him at the all candidates meeting in Verona last night. It could be an indicator that things may be a changin'. Here's hoping.
    11 04 07 Tony Ducey
    Reid always seems to do well here, 2011 should be no different.
    11 04 05 M K
    There are a lot of Remington signs out on private lawns already in Central and South Frontenac, traditionally conservative areas, not to mention Amherstview where residents are more Liberal-leaning.
    It's possible this may end up a lot closer than in 2008. In the current climate, people are open to change, federally and provincially.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This is Randy Hillier's riding and he is about as right wing as you can get. Also includes Lanark County where the Landowner's Association began thus however you slice this, it is a solid Conservative riding. The areas down around Kingston are more your Red Tory types whereas Lanark County is more your red meat type conservatives.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    Scott Reid won this riding with 56% of the vote, an improvement of 5% from the previous election, good for a margin of 34 points over his nearest opponent. That's one high ceiling. Granted, he didn't do quite so well as his neighbours, but he still finished eighth among Ontario Tories, down only two spots from sixth last time. In any event, what do all these numbers add up to? Easy Tory hold.
    09 12 05 A.S.
    No contest for Scott Reid. That said, the continuing quasi-ceiling for his support remains noteworthy, like those in FrontLenAdd (perhaps the Kingston Red Tory influence?) still can't give anything beyond the lukewarm. Of course, that was far more evident in the provincial near-defeat of Randy Hillier in '07: when it comes to rural rednecks vs Avril Lavigne-loving Loyalists, the latter aren't simple pushovers.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Absolutely no way Reid can lose here. 18,000 votes is just way too much for the Grits to overcome.

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