Prediction Changed
3:33 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Scott Reid

2006 Result:
Scott Reid **
30367
Geoff Turner
14709
Helen Forsey
9604
Mike Nickerson
3115
Jeffrey Bogaerts
735
Ernest Rathwell
501
Jerry Ackerman
429

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 04 01 R.O.
66.186.79.102
Not sure if I would compare the recent provincial results here to a future federal race. For a couple of reasons those being. The riding was vacant before the provincial vote so there was no incumbent advantage a big factor in a rural riding. Randy Hillier was the pc candidate but he had to win a competitive nomination so there might have been some who choose not to work for him. And conservatives even in rural ridings usually do not win big when they first win usually the races are fairly close and tight also was a tough election. All things to consider before we start comparing the 2. this has or at least the northern part of the riding been Scott Reids since 2000 when he was first elected and he is fairly well known by now. Anyways in the next election both liberals and ndp are running new candidates here David Remington liberal and Sandra Willard ndp.
07 10 28 binriso
156.34.232.141
Provincially the Liberals came within a hair of winning this riding(about 900 votes or ~2%), but federally it seems very strong and should send the CPC back with another 50% + win here.
07 04 10 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Funny; when I think of the traditional Tory tenor of Lanark County, I think of something more Scots Presbyterian than Catholic. In fact, ‘lots and lots of Catholics’ (i.e. the sort who once might have seemed monolithically Liberal) don't factor into LFLA the way they do in other Ottawa/St. Lawrence border seats; and the most presently non-Tory parts are explained more by Loyalist moderation and a certain exurban Kingston effect. Perhaps it's most interesting to note that even though he wasn't running against an incumbent any longer, Scott Reid only went from a point below 50% in '04 to a point above 50% in '06--evidently, there was still cold feet about those ReformAlliancey Harper Tories, even here in their Ontario heartland. (In fact, it was Eugene Forsey's daughter Helen who absorbed a lot of the Liberal seepage, scoring an astronomical-for-these-parts 16% for the NDP.) So, keep that in mind if you're expecting Lanark County percentages writ large here--what happens in Lanark, stays in Lanark...
07 04 08 Brian Appel
70.48.240.240
Reid has some pretty right-wing views, but they don't seem to hurt him much in this rural riding. Lots of agriculture, lots of small towns and lots and lots of Catholics. Short of Avril Lavigne running in the next election, Reid's going back to Ottawa.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Contrary to what some think, the Liberals are actually quite strong in the eastern parts of Lennox & Addington Counties as well as Frontenac County. However, with the Tories getting the 60s and 70s in Lanark County, while the Liberals down in the Teens there, that pretty much ensures the Tories will easily take this. In fact the re-distribution is the main thing that cost Larry McCormack his seat and will likely cost Leona her seat provincially next election.
07 03 24 Daniel
156.34.66.131
Reid has been an MP since the days of the Alliance, and this riding went comfortably Conservative last time around (again). Conservative hold.



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