Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:56 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:15 AM 3/17/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Green Party/Parti Vert:
John Baranyi
Parti Marijuana Party:
George Walter Kolaczynski
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Larry McCormick
Scott Reid
Ross Sutherland
Bill Vankoughnet

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington (55.1%)
Larry McCormick
Lanark-Carleton (44.9%)
Scott Reid

2000 Result/Résultats:
19,199 37.84%
17,915 35.31%
10,301 20.30%
2,066 4.07%
1,255 2.47%

Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
(140/221 polls, 45101/71031 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(102/236 polls, 36751/95684 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Other than the bad press, thanks to ex-Tory, ex-outlaw, Independent bad guy Bill Vankoughnet, Conservative Scott Reid looks to be the Giant Tiger in the riding against Larry McCormick, a Liberal with no profile from the backbench. Meanwhile, Reid has been front and centre on the bilingualism issue and still the Reformer on issues relating to unity, look for Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington to go Blue with Reid. With less than an hour to go for election predictions, I will be making the rest one liners, especially with many of my Ontario and other provinces/territories ridings prediction missing.
24/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
While I'm not prepared to take a stance on whether this riding will go Liberal or Tory, I will say it is a very interesting race to watch.
As has been stated, this riding is very bizarre. Not only is it essentially a riding of "left-over" regions, but it also has a race going on between two incumbents. The Liberal has sat for three terms in the area while Scott Reid used redistribution to move to a safer (potentially more conservative) riding from Lanark-Carleton (now Carleton-Lanark) where he served one term.
Reid's initial victory was almost a fluke, but in moving ridings, he has secured himself a better chance at re-election. While he was one of only two Alliance members elected in Ontario in the last general federal election, his popularity is not necessarily that high, particularly after the bilingualism flap. Still, he keeps his nose cleaner than neighbouring Tory-Alliance MP Cheryl Gallant.
As for McCormick, he is well liked and very much a country man. He has been burned a little by Liberal fortunes, but if he can emphasize the importance of electing the candidate, not the party, he may just evade the scorn directed at the Party.
It's a heated race to Ottawa. Both McCormick and Reid camps are reporting heavy sign vandalism. I predict this will be a close race. Rural ridings can be very fickle and are more likely to vote based on the candidate than the party. That said, Reid's biggest threat is not that McCormick is Liberal, but that he has been well known and has been in office for a while. If Reid can defeat him, I suspect this riding will be his for a long time to come. The race is close though, so I am not going to choose one over the other. Personally, I don't like Scott Reid, so I hope that the voters re-elect McCormick, but I won't be shocked if they don't. I see McCormick as the Bob Speller of Easten Ontario. He's a Liberal who has held his riding for years, he's concerned about agriculture, and is sitting in a riding that elects him more for his name than the Party name. While I am confident that Speller will be re-elected, I cannot say the same here. It'll be tight either way, b! ut McCormick could pull it off.
17/06/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Hard pressed to get government employees to vote anything other than Liberal???
Tell that to Dan Wicklum (Carleton-Lanark), David Pratt (Nepean-Carleton), Richard Mahoney (Ottawa-Centre), David McGuinty (Ottawa South), Marlene Caterall (Ottawa West-Nepean) and Marc Godbout (Ottawa-Orleans). They're all Liberals running in a government town, and they're all in trouble.
Then again, tell it to Larry "big lead over us" McCormick.
15/06/04 Shane
Email: [hidden]
Reading a previous post reminded me of an important fact. The riding has Suburban Kingston. And folks, when one of the biggest employeers is the government, you will be hard pressed to get them to vote anything other than Liberal.
And all this talk about the NDP taking away the Liberal votes is an old Tory argument I have heard so many times.. Sure we all know Liberal voters who said they are a bit tired of the Liberals and they might vote NDP. Check their lawn a week later, the sign on their lawn is still Red. At least that has been my experience.
09/06/04 Mike
This is a hope rather than an expectation on several grounds. The resurgence of the NDP to siphon off Liberal votes, the near certain increase in support in the parts of the riding that were Lanark-Carleton, the rural nature of parts of the riding and above all the unpopularity of the Liberals federally should see Mr Reid home. Crucially, the bilingualism issue does not appear to have hurt him as much as it might hurt the Conservatives nationally.
03/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Despite his bilingualism comments (whose impact--including on his own longer-term Conservative cabinet chances--will be minimal), Scott Reid remains the, er, "saner" of Ontario's pair of class-of-2000 AllianceConservatives--though technically perhaps not the safer, as he's pitted himself against a Liberal incumbent who maintains his safest Loyalist-belt polls through redistribution. And incidentally, McCormick's turf has *reversed* the provincial Eastern-Ontario swing to the right, thanks to popular Liberal MPP Leona Dombrowsky. In fact, Dombrowsky provincially has outpolled McCormick (who won in a 1993 landslide, but had divided-right breathing heavily down his neck in '97 and '00) federally. And under current circumstances it's difficult to see *any* sitting Tory (few as they are) in Ontario being dethroned...
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
It's hard to unseat the incumbant except when the incumbant is in an unpopular party. The Torys and Grits are tied in the polls in Ontario and much of the Liberal support is in Toronto and other urban areas. The thing is to about half the riding there is an incumbant in Scot Reid. The Liberals are too scandal-ridden to get many of their numbers elected (or re-elected) in right leaning ridings.
02/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
This is the riding that should never have been. Suburban Kingston, suburban Ottawa, rural Napanee, Frontenac axis hill country, all together. Looks like a natural for the new Conservatives, but ther is that wild card Vankoughnet in Napanee. I don't think Bill's personal popularity is that great, but maybe just enough. Ross Sutherland, well known health care crusader, is running for the NDP. Ross could do well in spots nearest to Kingston. Reid's musings on bilingualism could put him over the top, but with 2 incumbents and an independent, don't call this one yet.
02/06/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
It certainly can be difficult to unseat an incumbent. Just ask Larry McCormick ... the Ottawa Citizen quotes him as admitting that Conservative Scott Reid (MP for Lanark-Carleton) has "a big lead over us".
25/05/04 Shane
Email: [hidden]
Well the race is on!
And only a few days into it and I see plenty of signs supporting Larry. Simple politics, it is hard to unseat the incumbent. And Larry will be hard to unseat. He is extremely well liked, the fact is I have never heard anyone talk badly about him. As well he voted the way that will help him the most on the issue of Same-Sex marriage.
17/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Hey Chris...an excellent obervation of your part about the Eastern Ontario shift to the Alliance in 2000...it was actually preceded by a similar shift to the provincial PCs in 1999, where they built large Ottawa and area majorities, easily winning marginal ridings like Ottawa West-Nepean and taking Ottawa-Orleans from the Liberals.
Now to 2004...I think the two parties united very well in eastern Ontario with little rancour. There are a number of federal issues that will play well for them in rural areas as well as urban...the recent Ipsos Reid poll showed the Conservatvies reducing the Liberal lead in Ontario from 19% to 9%...that should put the Conservatives in shape for winning 25+ seats in Ontario and this one would be first or second out of the gate.
27/03/04 Compassionate Conservative
Email: rar123@hotmail.com
While Reid will hold the riding, it won't necessarily be due to a huge groundswell of support, but because Reid's organization can only have improved from the last election, at which time his machine pulled off an excellent job of GOTV that let him win.
Look for Reid to try and entend this influence to the other ridings in that area, and for the Conservatives to try and copy his methodology on GOTV to entend the run of electing MPs from here.
18/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

Logically, this one should go Conservative -- and yet, I'm not completely sure. I realize that Scott Reid is a strong candidate, and that FLA only turned out for the Liberals last time due to a vote ... but I still have my doubts. There was a (little commented on) swing to the Alliance in rural Eastern Ontario in 2000, that brought Reid and Gallant to parliament and *almost* brought down Pratt, Kilger, Jordan and McCormack. In the provincial election of 2003, however, this *didn't* translate into renewed support for the provincial Conservatives -- and my suspicion is that some of it may have dissipated at the federal level as well. Reid is the favourite, but I wouldn't say it's in the bag.
17/03/04 Craig
Rural riding that Scott Reid should run in, and since he no longer has suburban Kanata to worry about, he should run away and win in a huge majority. This should be the largest Conservative victory east of Alberta. Predicted results: Conservative 58%, Liberal 33%, NDP 5%, others 4%.
15/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: bedlam@sympatico.ca
Dead Liberal Walking #3.
A good portion of this riding was represented by a Liberal last time, and if the last election was based on these boundaries, it would have been a narrow Liberal victory (~2.5%), but that was with the PC's pulling over 20% of the vote.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster