Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2009/10

Kitchener Centre


Prediction Changed
2009-08-23 21:36:11
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Incumbent:
Stephen Woodworth

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kitchener-centre (180/210 Polls)
  • kitchener-waterloo (31/264 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    10 02 13 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Well this one remains as obvious liberal target and Karen Redman no doubt wants her old seat back the problem for the liberals is that Stephen Woodworth hasn't really done anything wrong. and in fact delivered a fair bit of federal funding for the riding and been active in the riding as mp. some of the local projects that got funding included the downtown Kitchener revitalization project , local affordable housing projects and local hospitals . so i don't know but i feel this riding is going to be alot closer than the liberals want to admit and Stephen Woodworth isn't doing that bad a job so he won't be easy to beat. so this one may be too close to call for a while until the future election becomes more clear as to what is going to happen. one other thing that should be noted here as that turnout in this riding specifically is lower than other ontario ridings so there is alot of voters in the riding who have not voted much recently and could help out either of the main parties here if they were able to land some of them and manage to do the impossible and actually get them voting.
    09 01 04 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Long a belwether swing seat, Kitchener Centre's gotten more Liberal-tilting as it's gotten more ‘central’ (and the Tories more ‘hostile-to-central’)--sure, it went CPC in '08, but it was by a collateral-pickup hair, and the fact of Karen Redman running again only reinforces the notion of this being a ‘natural’ one-election fluke. Of course, things don't always work out that way. Though I was correct in deeming this an under-40-percenter race for '08, and it may be more likely than not this time as well...
    09 09 28 Swift
    24.109.82.92
    In the last two elections the Conservative candidates and campaign teams simply outworked the Liberals. Even outworking them barely got a win in 2008 for the Tories. Karen retains her personal popularity and reputation for good work in the riding. A strong ground campaign can win this one back.
    09 09 02 R.O.
    209.91.149.178
    The 08 numbers here do tell an interesting story and it appears the conservative vote didn't grow but rather the liberal vote got smaller but either way a future vote here is a totally different race. as Stephen Woodworth is going to be campaigning as the incumbent next time representing an incumbent government. where is longtime liberal mp Karen Redman is in opposition now and hasn't even been mp for almost a year now. so the dynamics here have totally changed i feel and it be silly to assume it was going to be an easy liberal win considering the seat has been held by the conservatives for a year now. but for the time being it be fair to say the riding was too close to call.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    This riding was way too close in '08 to make a prediction at this point. It is apparent that the Libs did stay home, but it's still too soon to call it here.
    09 08 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    74.13.75.71
    We were surprised with a number of Ontario ridings going either NDP or Con in 2008 and this is one of them. Once we looked at the numbers it was obvious, Liberal supporters stayed home in 2008. The CPC did not actually win over the Liberal voters, they just convinced them not to vote. Not likely going to work twice. So the CPC will need to put a lot of resources in keeping their recent gains (this riding, Kitchener-Waterloo, London West, etc) and actually convince Liberal voters that they are the better choice. The Liberals just need to get the vote out. It will be a battle but at the moment we can't see the CPC keeping this riding.



    Navigate to Canada 2009/10 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2009/10
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2009 - Email Webmaster