Prediction Changed
1:28 PM 13/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Kitchener Centre
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bithell, John
New Democratic
Cole-Arnal, Oz
Lamka, Amanda
Redman, Karen
Suter, Martin
Woodworth, Stephen

Hon. Karen Redman

2006 Result:
Karen Redman **
Steven Cage
Richard Walsh-Bowers
Tony Maas
Martin Suter

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 04 MP
At around a 5,000 vote difference last time this riding is on the edge of actually being in play. My sense is that although the Liberals are on the way down, this is probably one riding they could hold(they haven't fallen as much in Ontario).
The Green Party's activities in this riding are probably less than the other parties but will still have an impact. Many houses will receive a piece of literature or a canvasser, and they have signs up on major roads such as Westmount. A strong campaign in Kitchener-Waterloo will have a spill over effect(people's live are definitely not defined by the riding boundaries).
A similar campaign in KW last provincial election was able to get roughly 5,000 votes. Look for the Greens to double their support to this number.
As for the post by JNG on lawn signs I have to disagree. Based on canvassing I've done on Westmount Road, Queen's Blvd.,between Mill St. and Courtland, and further east between Old Chicopee Road and Lackner there are definitely MORE Liberal signs.
Where I do agree is in the strong presence of the NDP. Based solely on lawn signs they seem to be running a strong campaign.
Karen Redman also gets a lot of ‘free’ exposure with her full time office on the busiest corner in downtown Kitchener. I would say this offsets any possible advantage in lawn signs.
08 10 04 Someone Who Is Actually From the Area...
Just an Observer, you fail to mention that the ‘poverty’ event was run by the local PIRG organizations, aka the NDP's radical branch at the local campuses in the riding next door. It was quite possible that any Conservative candidate that walked in the room of that ‘debate’ would've been handed a question along the lines of if they still beat their wife. Real voters in the area ignore such petty, campaign-socialist echo chambers and their *unbiased* attempts to spin the election; there's a reason why a Dipper hasn't been elected in the region since Bob Rae was shown the door provincially (federally, you have to go back to the 70s!).
08 10 03 Just an Observer
An article appearing in The Record notes that the Conservative candidates from the area (all three of them) didn't show up to a forum on poverty. Seems to be indicative of the Conservative campaign shifting to a focus where the candidates are being told to avoid making any embarrassing comments. I think this may turn off some of the undecided voters (sure did in my case) as the party came in on the last election on a platform of transparency and openness.
08 09 29 JNG
There are currently more Conservative Street and Yard signs in this Riding than Liberal ones. Over the last week, lots of NDP yard signs have also been popping up. This one will be close. Woodworth appears to be very popular and the NDP support seems stronger than I would have thought = vote splitting on the Left.
08 09 27 KW-Observer
I have noticed in this riding that Karen Redman has been around a long time and is very involved in the community. But the conservatives have had a different candidate running each time - in '04, '06, and now in '08. This doesn't lend them much credibility. I used to live in this riding, she is well known, and respected.
08 09 15 Whitebus
If there is a weak Liberal seat in Waterloo Region it is this one. The Conservative candidate is a former Liberal, albeit a one-issue one. Provincially the Liberals have a well organized election machine here but federally they have relied on the popularity of their MP's past community activism, which is now a distant memory. If the Conservatives continue to poll around 40% nationally and the urbanites in K-W start to look for representation in government, this one will go first.
08 09 06 Swift
Karen Redman may loose his riding unless she campaigns a little harder than she did last election. In 2006 the Conservatives had by far the best on the ground campaign, and their gains on both the NDP and the Liberals reflected this. However Karen may not be too worried, as Steve Woodworth won the Conservative nomination with a large new membership drive. Steve is known for his left wing Liberal opinions on just about every issue except for his loud and strenuous opposition to abortion. Many possible Conservative votes are likely to be lost for one or another of these positions. What could have been a close race looks to be a fairly comfortable win for Karen.
08 02 06 R.O.
This one is currently held by a liberal mp, and she’s more or less safe for time being. But the riding has been the kind which moves with the trends. It was pc when they were in power back in 80’s then went liberal and same thing happened provincially as well during 90’s.But with things so close and liberals doing better in urban Ontario ridings. This one stays were it is for the time being. But no official prediction since its too early and no race here yet. But it will be an interesting riding to watch when there is an election.
07 06 27 Concerned Tory #2
I think ‘Concerned Tory’ needs to get their facts straight here. Any self-respecting politician, even if they are pro-life, would be remiss to make that a campaign issue, it's just not smart politics, and it's not an issue that's even on the table right now. I know it'll take alot for Woodworth to beat Redman, but I don't think Redman will get a landslide in any case.
07 05 23 Citoyen Dion
The most recent post made here was almost certainly made by 2006 CPC candidate Steve Cage's campaign manager, and sounds like sour grapes after Cage only captured 30% of the votes at the CPC nomination meeting last month.
Look, anyone who thinks either incumbent Liberal Karen Redman or the new CPC candidate Stephen Woodworth are liabilities at this moment is clearly spewing partisan rhetoric around this site. Both candidates bring impressive qualifications to their campaign (Redman has good ties with cultural/community groups, name recognition, a good chance at cabinet if a Liberal government is elected; Woodworth is a successful lawyer with a practice in the riding, ties with community groups as well, ran previously as a Liberal in 1988 and thus can appeal to soft Liberals as well as Conservative voters in the riding). This riding, by its nature, is the ultimate bell-weather riding, having (with its previous incarnations) only sent an opposition member to Ottawa once since 1967 and that was with Redman's re-election last year when she was still Government Whip in a minority situation. Given the Conservatives' incumbancy status as the government, the scare tactics used by the Liberal campaigns of the past will not be nearly as effective, allowing the CPC vote to grow. It really all depends on how the two major parties will be doing when the writ is dropped and how the campaign plays out. Until then, this one is TCTC!
07 04 21 Concerned Tory
The Conservatives just nominated a right to life candidate in Steven Woodworth. The guy wants to make abortion the main issue in the campaign and he doesn't even live in the riding. Redman will take this in a land slide. Shame.
07 04 12 A.S.
KC may be less ‘white Christian Canadian born’ than it once was; but then, so is Kanata, Nepean, Gloucester, and we all know how they've gone. One might also point to the 2003 Ontario election, which this site called for the Liberals rather early in the game; yet in the end, Tory incumbent Wayne Wettlaufer lost by less than 5 points. And speaking of Ontario politics, there's the matter of Liz Witmer next door, representing a seat that's scarcely less diverse and even more academically-centred--get the picture? It all hinges upon how much oomph the Grits' rep as a ‘central city’ sort of party still has--don't underestimate it, even if they're out of power. And besides, Karen Redman was a bit of a ‘rising star’ in the Liberal regime's twilight years; that rep might still hold--besides, a lot of her leakage might go NDP or even Green instead, that's what central cities a short bus/bike ride from a university campus gets you. Less than 40% victory, perhaps?
07 04 11 Angry Ontarian
It's incorrect to assess this riding based on it not being as ‘white Christian Canadian born’ as it was 20 years ago...
It's a notorious bellwether riding. Kitchener Centre ALWAYS goes with whoever wins Ontario. It's one of those ridings that gets swept up with the rest of the 15+ 'average' subarb seats (winner takes all). It would be premature to even make a prediction until the dying days of the campaign.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
This may have once gone conservative when this was a smaller city and predominately white Christian Canadian born, but that is not the case anymore. This is a growing increasingly multicultural city that is very different than it was 20 years ago. In addition Karen Redman has been a good MP so even if the surrounding ridings are going Tory, this one won't.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster