Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

Prediction Changed
2009-10-10 12:02:00

Constituency Profile


Gventer, Karen

Hogbin, Emma

Love, Kimberley

Miller, Larry

Larry Miller

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • bruce-grey-owen-sound (183/209 Polls)
  • dufferin-peel-wellington-grey (14/203 Polls)
  • huron-bruce (3/201 Polls)
  • simcoe-grey (16/219 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 24 R.O.
    It borders on ridiculous to predict either liberal or green in this riding . what were seeing is instead instability among anti conservative voters who in this riding mostly seem to be located in Owen Sound . in 08 they voted green but in 06 and 04 they voted liberal but during each election Larry Miller easily won the riding. the 3 candidates running against Miller also all come from same demographic and other than party little difference between any of them . the race doesn't seem as interesting as 08 when some though greens actually win.
    Kimberly love only appears to be a more credible liberal candidate due to weaker green candidate this time , if Dick Himba had ran again she'd come in a very distant 3rd . my guess is the liberals would be thrilled just to beat greens in this riding thats likely there real goal this election.
    11 04 23 Kaisha
    The Greens under Shane Jolley and Dick Hibma were strong. But Hogbin is not nearly as competent or articulate. Kimberley Love has many Greens working in her office. If riding director and Green executives are making the switch, I'm certain so will the voters.
    Harper is disliked and for the most part that hasn't fallen on to Miller. This time it will.
    11 04 22 Anne
    I think that this time the Liberal candidate could take it. Love been working way harder than any of the other candidates, and she's smoking the rest of them in the debates. People are sick of the Conservative incumbent here, and the Greens like her position on environment issues. If she gathers up the Green vote, most of them used to be LIberal, she could steal this riding. The Conservatives aren't even watching it.
    11 04 20 Liam
    Dick Himba is helping Emma get support. I think Green will come a closer 2nd this time around.
    11 04 18 political junkie
    The Greens have a good base support and are likely to run second no matter who they run. However too much spread for them to defeat the Conservatives unless Mr. Harper really screws up in the next week or so.
    11 04 17 Martin
    The Greens did well during the last election based on the personal strength of Dick Hibma, and the weakness of the the Liberal campaign of Thom Noble. Emma Hogbin is no Dick Hibma, and Liberal Kimberley Love has been building an organization over the last two years . The number of defections from the Greens to the Liberals is evident, and Love's media and ground war is stronger. I've been canvassed at the door and by telephone by the Liberals - nothing from the other parties other than an annoying and pushy call from the Miller camp. Expect a collapse of the Green vote and an uphill battle for Kimberley Love against Miller as the strategic voters will vote Liberal as Love is clearly emerging as the alternative to Miller and the CPC.
    11 04 16 farmer fred
    Just spent the day in the riding on business. The Greens are bleeding to Kim Love, including in workers. Larry Miller will get close to the support of all the others combined, but it will be the Liberals who re-gain the honour of finishing second. The NDP is actually doing stronger than I would have thought possible. (And by that I mean not completely dead) and may actually be stronger than they have been lately, but still a distant 4th. Good chance that is the spill over Robertson factor from next door.
    11 04 15 Kevin
    I think Greens have potential here , they have strong support in this riding. Emma is very much respected here , and Elizabeth May said this was a targeted riding which means the money their. The Green spent 20,000$ less last election than the Tories and got 20% less of the vote this time I think they will use all the money they can.
    11 04 11 AD
    This is one of the 5 ridings that Elizabeth May has targeted publicly.
    Still unlikely, but it shows the resources are there.
    11 04 10 Jack
    This one will go Conservative. This riding more than any other riding votes for the candidate, rather than the party. Both Conservative and Provincially it is Conservative, it will stay Conservative as long as Miller is running. MPP Murdoch is not running for re-election, so provincially it is not as safe. However, Miller should be safe.
    11 04 10 joey joe joe
    Tory no contest. Green party was the second place finisher last time. No chance for Libs or NDP.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Even back in the 90s, the Reform Party was competitive here and with the two parties now merged, I suspect the Tories will get either just below 50% or just above. In fact unlike other 519 ridings, their support has been fairly consistent.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    The Greens may have gone after this riding hard last time around, but they were still twenty points back on Miller - good enough for second, both here and among all Green Party candidates nationwide, but not nearly enough to win. With Elizabeth May deciding to focus her resources on getting herself elected and leaving the other Greens to their own devices, coupled with a new candidate, I'm willing to project a decline in the Green vote and, therefore, an easy Tory win. As for the Liberals, there's nowhere to go but up - at 14.3%, this was their worst riding in Ontario last time out.
    10 09 02 R.O.
    Lots of news here to report, first off provincial mpp Bill Murdoch announced his retirement earlier in the summer. meaning the real race is likely to happen here in fall 2011 when the riding will be vacant. secondly the federal government invested some serious money in the riding when the repaving project for the entire Bruce Peninsula highway was announced. a project that is sure to be popular here. thirdly the greens have a new candidate as Dick Hibma is not running again . Emma Hogbin won the nomination at a nomination meeting attended by Elizabeth May and Adriane Carr , but attendance was not huge as only about 100 people attended the event according to news articles. so without either of there once successful candidates i'm not really convinced the greens can take this one and don't see the liberals taking it either. so we could see a situation where cpc vote stays about the same in the riding but liberals and greens fight it out for second.
    09 11 03 A.S.
    Unless Ellie May chose to run here, '07 provincially/'08 federally probably marked more of a max-out than harbinger moment for the Greens in BGOS. Still, it's worth noting the ?efficiency? of the Green vote both here and in Guelph: more Green polls won in either seat than in May's own Central Nova...
    09 10 08 MF
    I too disagree with saying BGOS is too close too call. The fact that the Greens were second here last time is an interesting footnote, but at the end of the day it is still a safe rural Ontario Tory riding.
    09 09 29 Gone Fishing
    Too Close To Call?
    There are at least 18 Toronto area liberal red ridings that are as close to TCTC as this one. It's a prediction that questions the credibility of the editors of this site without some reasoning having been put forth.
    The Liberal ?stalwart? who previously held the riding was HIGH profile in that he was the former mayor and even then, this was one of those split the right ridings where the Liberal came up the middle.
    This is not a bedrock for anyone but Tories unless something siesmic happens.
    09 09 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    TCTC? Who do you suppose could knock off the CONs? Greens? Maybe. Don't think so though. They would need to put all their Ontario effort into this riding and still it'd be close. Makes you wonder how the heck did this ever become the Greens best shot in Ontario. Then again, this was the first place either of us had ever seen a wind turbine in Ontario...
    09 09 27 Nick J Boragina
    Who was Hibema? Well, he was a nobody. So why did he do so well? Check the 2008 election results for London North Centre for the answer to that. Shane Jolley (likely next leader of the provincial greens) built a strong and powerful party machine here, the most powerful Green party machine in Canada right now. Whoever runs for the Greens will inherit that machine and use it to finish second.
    However, whoever runs will not be Jolley, and hence, will not be able to run on their name, or personal popularity. The end result of this is another CPC win.
    09 09 12 farmer fred
    The Greens did not run a farmer - they ran an nuclear engineer that works at Bruce Power.
    The Liberals and the NDP will have much better candidates this time out. It would be hard not too! Expect major slippage in the Green vote without a Hibma or Jolley on the ballot.
    Larry Miller could phone this one in. Calling it too close to call is laughable.
    09 08 30 pollwerker
    Recently heard of a riding specific poll from Provincial BGOS. Greens were a distant fourth. It also showed the sitting Ontario PC MPP easily beating an unnamed generic Liberal. However; the poll showed poor support for the OPC party and suggested the riding could be in play if the MPP did not seek re-election. The Green Party leader Liz May was considering this riding, but has since opted for uh- greener pastures in BC. Not a coincidence.
    09 08 29 TENN CAN
    NO CONTEST !!! This is Conservative territory, territory of greats like Percy V. Noble and Gus Mitches. Consider that Ovid Jackson won his terms over a conservative vote split and even with that the Reform candidate Murray Peer came a close second in 1997. Granted, the Greens showed strong provincially against Tory Bill Murdoch 2 years ago, but there is a very strong blue base here and a resurgent Green federally can only translate into left of center vote splits.
    09 08 28 Sean P.F.
    One of my best friends lives in Owen Sound, and he told me that the reason the Green party did so well is that they ran a farmer who promised to give the farmers everything they could ever want. Therefore, the Green vote here is a protest vote, not a genuine Green vote. Expect a Conservative hold by Larry Miller.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    The only way it will be close is if the Greens run a star, and devote significant resources here. Miller's 9,800 vote lead will be enough to hold the seat.
    09 08 24 binriso
    The greens have vaulted into the default anti-CPC choice in this area, which certainly will cause a close race but not enough to defeat the CPC incumbent

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