Election Prediction Project
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Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:11 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:11 PM 6/26/2004

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Alex Drossos
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Ovid Jackson
Larry Miller
Sebastian Ostertag
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Steven Taylor

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (86.4%)
Ovid Jackson
Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey (5.5%)
Murray Calder
Huron-Bruce (1.0%)
Paul Steckle
Simcoe-Grey (7.1%)
Hon. Paul Bonwick

2000 Result/Résultats:
19,235 42.78%
16,299 36.25%
7,182 15.97%
2,141 4.76%
106 0.24%

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
(183/209 polls, 64293/72354 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(14/203 polls, 4076/81542 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(3/201 polls, 753/66812 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(16/219 polls, 5279/82895 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound is the birth place of Reform Association/Party of Ontario and was always a top three must-have riding for Reform according to Preston Manning but if you think, just because of the unite the right theory, that this is just an easy sweep by the Tory Larry Miller, forget about. But, thanks to Liberal Ovid Jackson, the Grits will lose this riding, like the Tories did under Mulroney-Campbell, because of just plain bad government under Chretien-Martin and rather than voting in Miller and the Tories in droves, they will be voting out Jackson and the Grits by the masses. Again, this is a riding to look at closely in 2007 as maverick Bill Murdoch resigns, as the Reform movement makes changes there and around that region as backlash against Tory and Grit governments provincially and federally.
23/06/04 R.M. Meingast
Email: rmeingast@yahoo.com
I voted at an advance poll on Monday and place was busy! Long line up of mostly young and old... Election is only 4 days away and I still believe Ovid Jackson will squeak through... Yes, lots of Miller Conservative signs but I've seen all this before... Alliance was supposed to take riding last time, but didn't... And yes, I know about vote splitting last time, but how many old PCs will vote Conservative and how many Liberal in this riding?? Poll numbers are showing Liberal gains across Ontario and Conservatives losing votes... As election day draws nearer and people make up their minds, Conservatives could be in for a surprise in this riding...
23/06/04 YukonPundit
Email: YukonPundit@yahoo.ca
Jackson while somewhat popular and seen as a nice guy, isn't viewed as the sharpest knife, and while Miller may not have a lot of respect either, traditional small-c voting in this area will swing back to the Cons under the 1 banner. It seems that it wouldn't be a great tragedy among average voters if Jackson is defeated and that's likely what will happen.
23/06/04 Tim Ingram
Email: tim@locuspoint.net
I would be very surprised if the Conservatives don't pick up this seat. This is a rural riding with a combined 2000 Reform/PC vote that would have toppled the Liberal when they were way ahead nationally.
20/06/04 lrs
Email: [hidden]
a seat where Reform and Alliance hopes dashed since 1993- with rural voters voting heavily Tory by polls- should be Tory win- I do not see it as Liberal safe seat- thus if Martin not come - then should assume seat lost- if he comes in last week-may be closer than a lot of people think-
if Tories cannot win here- then polls wrong about percentage of votes in Ontario and seat projections of a Tory minority-I would expect this seat to go CPC if Liberals win a small minority
15/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
More info on this riding. The high school students poll at OSCVI had the Liberals first by a strong margin, the NDP clearly second and the CPC a weak third. I still think the CPC will take the riding, maybe not as easily as I earlier thought?
14/06/04 hieronymous
Email: [hidden]
Miller has been campaigning here for months and hitting all the issues close to a largely rural setting. He was supporting farmers in radio ads in March.
I am in the riding's south end regularly and I haven't heard a lot of liberal bragging here for a couple years.
If Jackson is losing support in Owen Sound the only truly urban part of the riding as the other contributors suggest he is in deep trouble.
Vote splitting in reverse?
07/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Ovid Jackson may have gotten 42% in 2000, but that was still a swing *toward* him relative to 1997 (granted, the then all-too-fresh Walkerton water crisis must have helped). And the continuous 50% PC provincial record owes more to Bill Murdoch's idiosyncratic way of doing things than to anything innate--which other Common Sense Revolutionary could have represented Walkerton and still kept his seat in 2003 with virtually the same margin as in 1999? (In fact, pre-Murdoch, this was solid provincial "Eddie Sargent Liberal" country.) On the other hand, you can be sure that Murdoch will put his barrel-chested weight behind any Tory running here. As a black Liberal representing a rural Ontario seat, Ovid has always struck an almost otherworldly backbencher presence within the Chretien-Martin caucus; and his innate decency might well muffle a lot of the swing against him relative to recent elections. But there's still not an awful lot of swing to muffle on behalf of his keeping his seat...
07/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
After spending the weekend in this riding I feel certain Ovid is deep trouble. How is it a teenaged NDP candidate has more lawn signs (not counting boulevards and streetcorners --real houses) in the urban area of Owen Sound? See for yourself -- downtown Owen Sound is a forest of orange. The bottom is falling out of Jackson's vote, while the farm areas should return CPC Larry Miller as they always do Bill Murdoch. Ovid has served the riding well, if unspectacularly, but the feeling in the riding is that his day is done.
03/06/04 Mike Schierz
Email: mschierz@bmts.com
3 weeks ago I would have said this race was too close to call. I would still say this although recent polling in Ontario shows the Conservatives and Liberal's neck and neck. If this polling stays the same until election day, Larry Miller will win this riding by about 3000 votes.Larry Miller will take the north part of the riding, Ovid Jackson will take Owen Sound by a slim margin. Larry Miller will take the townships in between (Georgian Bluffs and West Grey), Meaford will be split between the two of them. The real test will be the town of Hanover, it has 7000 residents and this town will decide who wins in this riding. Last election Hanover went 3-1 with Ovid Jackson over Murray Peer and the Alliance. This time around is very different, I see a lot of signs on peoples lawns for Larry Miller, much more than the Alliance and the PC's had last time. It is still early but if Larry Miller can split Hanover 50-50 with Ovid Jackson then the riding will go Conservative.
02/06/04 Terry Fisher
Email: maps@darkstaar.com
Of course, the NDP won't be a factor at all in this riding. I couldn't even find the local candidate's name on the NDP's website, or even that this riding exists!
I predict the Conservatives to win...not a landslide victory but not a squeaker either.
02/06/04 Randy Meingast
Email: rmeingast@yahoo.com
Middle of 2nd week of campaign and I see a few Miller Conservative signs and a few Jackson Liberal signs around Owen Sound. The local newspaper recently talked to a few voters in Owen Sound who mostly were undecided about their votes. I wonder how many people are really paying attention to what's going on, yet? I know the most recent polls are stating that things are very close between the Conservatives and Liberals, but maybe it's still too early to put much faith in those polls?? Maybe most people won't make up their minds until shortly before election day in this riding???
28/05/04 d.l.
Email: ddlyons@canada.com
The latest opinions on this riding are all quite accurate. However, those calling for an easy Conservative/Alliance win should probably consider three important factors: 1) Larry Miller is not Bill Murdoch; 2) There are still a lot of red Tories around that will see how the image of the new party and leader survives the campaign before deciding their vote (espescially with a known right-leaning Liberal like Martin); and the NDP have a near teenaged candidate in the son of former candidate Collen Purdon (not that youth is bad in my books, but the voters tend to disagree)
This will be a very close race, with the central campaigns having a big impact, but in the end Ovid just may pull it out.
25/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
It's in our not-always-so-humble-opinion that Ovid is in some trouble, at no fault of his own. He is a good MP, but he's up against a popular Conservative challenger in a riding that is blue by nature and is running for a party that is sinking (still) in the polls. There's plenty of time for Liberal fortunes to turn around and if so, Ovid my squeek in. If not then Ovid will be one of many Ontario MPs turfed in this election.
17/05/04 Jay P
Email: [hidden]
Another genetically blue Ontario riding. Ovid Jackson has been a good and decent MP but he will be battling historical currents here with a united right, and his chances of prevailing don't look good, even if the Liberals start to recover in Ontario (and that recovery manages to stay solid to election day).
17/05/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
This riding should EASILY go Conservative, as it has continually garnered over 50% provincially, even in the heart of last fall's protest vote. Ovid Jackson can't brag about popularity when you only carry 42% versus 2 divided parties led Stockwell(eek!)Day and Joe(yawn!)Clark.
This riding will go blue, and Larry Miller of the Conservatives will get nearly 50% of the vote in the process.
17/05/04 Randy Meingast
Email: rmeingast@yahoo.com
Well, this election is gonna be a tough one for incumbent Liberal MP Ovid Jackson. The Reform/Alliance/PC forces are allied and figure they can take it with their candidate Larry Miller. I'm not so sure. Larry Miller is a nice guy but I'm not sure how well known he is outside of Georgian Bluffs?
The PC vote leaves a big question mark as well? Many ex-PCs will vote for Miller, but many will vote for Jackson or not vote at all? The NDP candidate may be a young guy and he'll get the die hard NDP vote, but little else. A lot depends on the tenor of the election campaign and any mistakes Stephen Harper makes or doesn't make. I'm biased, of course, but I'm hoping enough people will be scared of Harper to re-elect Jackson in this riding. The Reform/Alliance/PC/Conservative forces have thought they've won it many times before. Hopefully, they'll have to wait at least four more years...
12/05/04 JB
Email: [hidden]
I was doing work in this riding over the weekend and am delighted to report that Ovid isn't in as much trouble as I thought. Former Conservatives I know are working on Ovid's campaign. I was very pleasantly surprised at how positive people's comments about Ovid were. This will be a hard fought battle between popular Larry Miller and still popular Ovid Jackson. With Liberal upward movement in the polls and the power of incumbancy Ovid is still in the race and I think might squeak out a small win, say less than 500 votes.
23/03/04 Kevin Skrepnek
Email: kevin_skrepnek@yahoo.com
This riding can definitly go to the Conservatives. The combined Reform/CA and PC votes in past elections would have easily defeated the Liberals, and the united CPC's candidate, Larry Miller, is hugely popular.
19/03/04 J.B.
Email: [hidden]
As much as I think Ovid Jackson is a good and decent man, Ovid's days as a MP are drawing to a close. The NDP has no presence here to draw away anti-Liberal votes, and very popular municpal politicial Larry Miller is running for a united Conservative Party. This one should not be listed as too close to cal, but a Conservative pick up. Next door in my riding of Huron-Bruce a real race is shaping up and that is the local riding that should be listed as way too close to call.
17/03/04 Rich
Email: [hidden]
Conservative win. Three of the four ridings that were amalgamated to make this riding come from ridings that went to the PCs provincially in 2003. On election day I predict that Bruce - Grey - Owen Sound will follow that trend.
15/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Dead Liberal Walking #8.
Another close riding where the Liberals need more than 40% of the PC vote to abandon the new party to hang on.

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