Prediction Changed
11:18 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Hibma, Dick
Christian Heritage
Kidd, Joel
New Democratic
McIllwraith, Jill
Miller, Larry
Noble, Thom

Larry Miller

2006 Result:
Larry Miller **
Verona Jackson
Shane Jolley
Jill McIllwraith

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 14 femaleCONvoter
While I agree that the Green Party has made inroads here, they still are not going to gain enough votes to win this election. I predict that they will come in second ahead of the Liberal candidate. Noble is not known at all and Hibma is known for his past municipal work. I'd like to point out that the local rag endorsed the Green candidate in the last provincial election, and look how that turned out.
08 10 12 splinterjete
Dick Hibma was endorsed by the local paper yesterday. The article - - offers a compelling case for electing a Green MP. This could sway voters and coalese strategic voters around the Green candidate, putting him over the top.
08 10 13 KW Conscience
The Greens are about to make huge gains here with the well-respected Hibma. Unortunately, most votes will come out of the other left wing parties.
The Conservatives simply have too much traditional support to be defeated here. Expect their numbers to drop slightly, but not even close to enough to entertain thoughts of a tory defeat (unfortunately).
The Greens will make huge gains, effectively doubling their support from last election, and receiving some of the highest Green support in the country.
The Liberals are continuing to fade here, barely staying over 20%, and the NDP have been very ineefective in their campaign, resulting in a couple of percentage point losses, and dropping them under 10% of the vote! They are no longer a serious alternative in this riding.
08 10 12 MP
That being said what BGOS does have is a very strong local organization with lots of volunteers and identified supporters. This was the strongest Green riding in the last provincial election. There is an equally strong probability that it could go Green this time.
08 10 11 R.O.
Well the green party has potential in this riding the reality is Elizabeth May did not even bother to visit it this election. which seems odd considering green party did well here. but in the end I suspect current mp Larry Miller will hold this seat although the numbers will look a lot different than last elections. I think the greens will come in second here as liberal candidate not that high profile.
08 10 11 stuckinthemiddle
Owen Sound is a sea of green signs. Those not interested in Larry Miller are gravitating to Green as Dick Hibma is a local politician who has garnered a lot of respect in the community. I am aware of many traditional Liberal voters who are supporting Hibma. The Conservative base is very strong in this riding, and Miller will likely prevail, but Hibma will be a strong second. However if Hibma continues to attract disaffected Liberals and small ‘c’ conservatives he may well pull out the upset of the election.
08 10 04 ABCvoter
Nothing against the Greens, but I think the Liberals can take it here in Grey-Bruce. Ovid Jackson was a terrific Liberal MP, and this Noble guy seems to have a lot of support from the entrenched Liberals. The new Green guy is not Shane Jolley (Jolley Green Giant), who people really seemed to like. I think the tide is turning away from the Conservatives here, and while the Greens have a lot more signs (the Liberals were late picking a candidate), I think the Liberals could take this. Looking at the big picture, Dion is the guy. And Noble is eating away at Miller's piece of the pie.
08 09 27 Gone Fishing
One thing about green support in the last provincial election. The green candidate did poll 33%. The PC candidate polled 47% in an all-time low voter turnout province wide. My take on this is that a lot of PC vote stayed home in protest of John Tory. Others voted Green to lodge their protest of the Tory leadership. I know in my riding (London West) I did and many of my Conservative friends did the same.
The other thing is liberal support here was 14% in the last provincial election. Looks to me that this is more indicative of how bad things could turn out for the liberals in BGOS then the Conservatives.
Miller is safe here for the same reason Murdoch is safe. They are not the soft fluffly stand for nothing kind of Tories that are ruining the PC party in Ontario.
08 09 25 Best Bet
In the last Provincial election - 33% of the vote went to the Green Candidate. I believe you will see these votes transfer federally. There is also quite a swing already of prominent Liberal supporters signaling that they will be voting Green in this election. The candidate Dick Hibma is a 3-term municipal councillor with greater voter recognition than the Liberal candidate. Even the Liberal EDA officials were seeking other nominations right up until the election was called even though Thom Noble had declared himself months earlier. Larry Miller should be worried - it will be close!
08 09 20 femaleCONvoter
In reply to OldWillowdaler...Walkerton is not part of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound,it's in Huron-Bruce. People blame the two brothers involved, not the past Harris cabinet or the current Harper government. Conservative candidates in either riding will not be effected.
Murdoch's stance of non-confidence in John Tory, and expulsion from the provincial party has nothing to do with federal politics. This expulsion was another badly thought out personal decision of John Tory's, just like faith-based funding and not stepping down as leader. He should have his own party, membership of one! People here know the difference - Tory does not equal Harper. It will have no bearing on Miller winning this riding again.
08 09 18 Old Willowdaler
I know a bit about this riding and think its a conservative hold but wonder what impact 2 events will have on the tally and if the PC vote will drop (NOT enough to lose though) First the local MPP for part of the area Murdoch's treatment at the hands of John Tory who seems to be acting more like Harper than Bill Davis these days, dont kid yourself Murdoch is popular amongst all political stripes. Secondly Walkerton & Listeria. When Walkerton struck its was Harris/Flaherty now Lysteria its Harper/Flaherty the PM has a similiar slant to the ex-premier. With Ritz's comments today may it give cause for those who see this latest incident as proof that the Neo-con's have not learned the lessons and could pose a risk to people's health with all this ‘let industry regulate themselves’ Wonder what you locals think the impact of this would be on the tory vote
08 09 18 Japhy Solomon
Four years of Larry Miller and what does BGOS have to show for it? An anti-terrorist security fence in Owen Sound harbour. . .slightly penetrable, but don't tell anyone.
08 09 12 Gone Fishing
I have some news for you who feel the need to unite to avoid the conservatives.
Here's some simple math. 2+2 is NOT greater than 5.
The conservatives nearly won 50% here last time and have likely gained support since. All the other parties should stick to thier own message promote THEMSELVES if they are serious about gaining ground in a down to earth riding like this one.
This one ain't close Miller goes back to Ottawa in a romp.
Greens you AREN'T GOING TO WIN A GENERAL ELECTION SEAT IN RURAL ONTARIO, try Toronto or the left coast but get real.
08 09 09 Martin Donald
The Greens have an excellent candidate in Dick Hibma. He seems to be the only alternative since the liberals haven't even selected a candidate yet. Recent results in this riding indicate that any one not wanting to be represented by conservative Larry Miller must vote strategically for Dick Hibma.
08 09 09 Jeremy A. H.
The Green Party candidate in B-G-OS is Dick Himba, a former Owen Sound City Councillor. He has worked with the G-B Conservation Authority, and will be a viable contender for the B-G-OS seat. The environment is an important issue in many of the larger communities in the riding, and I believe this will be reflected in the voting. Whether or not Himba will oust the Conservative MP Larry Miller, I am not certain, but it will definitely be a close race.
08 09 09 BL
Just a minor correction - Jolley is not the green candidate this time around. That honour goes to Dick Hibma, a very well respected former municipal politician. Although he is unlikely to win, I think he may surprise and I expect him to be a solid runner up.
08 08 11 karmat
After the October 2007 Provincial election, Shane Jolley stated for the press a few times that he would not be running federally again. That he wanted to stay at the provincial level. So unless he's changed his mind, he's not in the equation at all.
08 08 04 R.O.
Well the greens ran very strong here an actual win might not be in the cards yet. Think as longs as its represented by an incumbent conservative mp in Larry Miller and Bruce Murdoch provincially its an unlikely win. If the greens remain popular and Shane Jolley still a candidate they might have a chance when one of the mps retires that could be a really competitive election. But as of now they still have to pass the liberal vote here which is possible depending on who they run and with the Jacksons out of the race they likely will not be running a very high profile candidate. Thing is it is a largely rural riding once you leave owen sound city limits and Larry Miller has a lot of support in those areas and there the types of places that are not really left of centre politically.
08 08 01
Although I give credit to Shane Jolley for running such a good campaign. There are two things that need to be remembered.
1. There is no issue in the Federal Conservative Platform like the religious school issue. This alone pushed many conservatives in this riding to the greens simply because they would rather go green than Liberal or NDP. Without thi issue Mr. Miller is in good territory.
2. Shane Jolley has recently been caught looking in people's windows at 3AM, in what he calls a stolen bicycle operation. I believe he has been charged and that the legal process is taking due course. This will prove to be very important in this riding, which is full of seniors and family types. Even though he has not been found guilty, this incidence has as good as shot him in the foot.
I also would like to comment that making a deal with the Liberals and the Greens to not run candidates, such as in West Nova, will infuriate a lot of voters.
08 06 13 binriso
With regards to my previous post, I actually thought of a hypothetical situation here. How about this?
Liberals pull their candidate out in Bruce Grey Owen Sound and support the Greens.
Greens pull their candidate out in Saanich Gulf Islands in BC(and maybe another close BC riding like West Van Sunshine Coast) and support the Liberals.
Seems like a decent deal for both parties and its not like they haven’t before. Still thinking this would go CPC though in that event, but there’s certainly a similar chance here for the Greens like in Central Nova, possible, but unlikely.
08 06 02 T.V.
This is all about Shane Jolley. He's obviously very popular and runs an extremely tight campaign. This will be an election where people are disillusioned with all of the party leaders, and a lot of people will be attracted by a strong candidate with none of the baggage of the major parties. He may not win, but he'll certainly be a very strong second if he runs. Note that he's also running against a much more no name Tory than Bill Murdoch this time.
08 03 10 binriso
Ive always wondered why Canadian parties(or any countries political parties) have so rarely pulled out their candidates and strategically supported other candidates in order to defeat an otherwise undefeatable candidate(other than the Dion-May deal and when Mackenzie King pulled the Liberal candidate from a race in order to help the CCF beat then Conservative leader Arthur Meighen). CPC vs Green 1 on 1 would be a pretty fun race here and it might even give the Greens a slight chance of winning. NDP are never going to win this riding ever unless a meteor kills every rural voter, and the Liberals will only win when they are in strong majority territory, so they both are seriously wasting their time(not to mention Party money which is essentially taxpayer money) even nominating a candidate here in the next election other than the fact to have a full slate(well 307 for the LPC). That might be a fun experiment but until something like that happens, CPC will just walk over everyone here by huge margins.
08 02 14 R.O.
This was one of the surprises of the recent provincial election, well it did re-elect Bill Murdoch but green vote was still very close. But that election was much different and so were the issues being talked about. The school funding issue was pretty big and likely part of the reason for increased green vote in some areas. Looking thru some previous results for this riding and greens didn’t even run a candidate here as recently as 2000 election, seems odd that they are now so competitive here. Larry Miller is facing a challenge but is fairly well known mp as he was first elected back in 2004 election and beat longtime liberal Ovid Jackson in that election. Greens still have to pass liberal vote here and that might not be as easy as though depending on who liberals run here.
08 01 27 Mark
I can't see how this isn't Too Close to Call. Right now, I'd give the Conservatives an edge, but Jolley is running again for the Greens. Liberal voters, may vote Green ‘strategically’, to help defeat the Conservative incumbent. This will be one of the top 3 ridings the Green Party will be targeting come election time.
07 10 11 binriso
With the 34%(!!) that Shane Jolley and the Greens managed here in the provincial election look for him to increase his votes federally substantially. Not near enough to win though as of now. There isnt a wedge issue like separate faith based schools to defeat Larry Miller and he will likely win with close to 50% again. Greens probably slide into 2nd above the Liberals but still behind the CPC.
07 04 06 A.S.
It was totally out of left field, but the *big* story here in '06 was Shane Jolley's astonishing run for the Greens, winning a Meaford poll, nipping the NDP for third, with the party's highest share that year (13%) in *Canada*...almost like a preview of what could be in store for the Elizabeth May-led party. If we extrapolate into current flirting-with-double-digits polls, should Jolley run again, he could even be looking at a strong second place--and maybe not the only such case in Ontario. (Curiously, it's these kind of hinterland Tory seats, where Reform was in strong contention in the 90s, where there's the greatest likelihood of Greens in second.) It all just as well ensures Larry Miller's safety--though it'd be weirdly plausible if the only defeated CPC MP in Ontario turns out to be defeated by the Greens...
07 03 29 M. Lunn
A very conservative riding so Larry Miller should easily win this. He won by 10 points in 2004 and the Reform Party came within 3 points of taking this in 1997, so with the Tories polling double in Ontario what the Reform Party had in 1997, they should easily hold this.

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