Prediction Changed
11:18 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Larry Miller

2006 Result:
Larry Miller **
25133
Verona Jackson
14378
Shane Jolley
6735
Jill McIllwraith
5918

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 03 10 binriso
156.34.209.176
Ive always wondered why Canadian parties(or any countries political parties) have so rarely pulled out their candidates and strategically supported other candidates in order to defeat an otherwise undefeatable candidate(other than the Dion-May deal and when Mackenzie King pulled the Liberal candidate from a race in order to help the CCF beat then Conservative leader Arthur Meighen). CPC vs Green 1 on 1 would be a pretty fun race here and it might even give the Greens a slight chance of winning. NDP are never going to win this riding ever unless a meteor kills every rural voter, and the Liberals will only win when they are in strong majority territory, so they both are seriously wasting their time(not to mention Party money which is essentially taxpayer money) even nominating a candidate here in the next election other than the fact to have a full slate(well 307 for the LPC). That might be a fun experiment but until something like that happens, CPC will just walk over everyone here by huge margins.
08 02 14 R.O.
66.186.79.103
This was one of the surprises of the recent provincial election, well it did re-elect Bill Murdoch but green vote was still very close. But that election was much different and so were the issues being talked about. The school funding issue was pretty big and likely part of the reason for increased green vote in some areas. Looking thru some previous results for this riding and greens didn’t even run a candidate here as recently as 2000 election, seems odd that they are now so competitive here. Larry Miller is facing a challenge but is fairly well known mp as he was first elected back in 2004 election and beat longtime liberal Ovid Jackson in that election. Greens still have to pass liberal vote here and that might not be as easy as though depending on who liberals run here.
08 01 27 Mark
76.68.94.19
I can't see how this isn't Too Close to Call. Right now, I'd give the Conservatives an edge, but Jolley is running again for the Greens. Liberal voters, may vote Green ‘strategically’, to help defeat the Conservative incumbent. This will be one of the top 3 ridings the Green Party will be targeting come election time.
07 10 11 binriso
156.34.212.190
With the 34%(!!) that Shane Jolley and the Greens managed here in the provincial election look for him to increase his votes federally substantially. Not near enough to win though as of now. There isnt a wedge issue like separate faith based schools to defeat Larry Miller and he will likely win with close to 50% again. Greens probably slide into 2nd above the Liberals but still behind the CPC.
07 04 06 A.S.
74.99.222.209
It was totally out of left field, but the *big* story here in '06 was Shane Jolley's astonishing run for the Greens, winning a Meaford poll, nipping the NDP for third, with the party's highest share that year (13%) in *Canada*...almost like a preview of what could be in store for the Elizabeth May-led party. If we extrapolate into current flirting-with-double-digits polls, should Jolley run again, he could even be looking at a strong second place--and maybe not the only such case in Ontario. (Curiously, it's these kind of hinterland Tory seats, where Reform was in strong contention in the 90s, where there's the greatest likelihood of Greens in second.) It all just as well ensures Larry Miller's safety--though it'd be weirdly plausible if the only defeated CPC MP in Ontario turns out to be defeated by the Greens...
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
A very conservative riding so Larry Miller should easily win this. He won by 10 points in 2004 and the Reform Party came within 3 points of taking this in 1997, so with the Tories polling double in Ontario what the Reform Party had in 1997, they should easily hold this.



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