Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-23 11:46:00

Constituency Profile


Bourgeois, Julie

Brisson, Jean-Serge

Lemieux, Pierre

Lemieux, Sylvie

Séguin, Denis A.

Pierre Lemieux

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • glengarry-prescott-russell (185/198 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 23
    No offence to the Boudria family intended...but R.O.'s reference to new candidate Bourgeois being not as qualified in comparison to Dan Boudria seems to be a little out in left field for a ‘rightee’. According to Bourgeois' bio she attended Ottawa U and obtained a bach in political sciences, followed by a degree in law, furthered with a career as a Crown Attourney within the riding that she is running. These credentials put Bourgeois far ahead of any of the previous appointees to the mp's position in GPR. The fact that the NDP candidated to date as made little to no apperance at all and has placed no signage whatsoever within the riding would indicate a large number of up for grab votes available.Still a close call but still Red.
    11 04 21 Ottawa Outside Insider
    Have heard very positive remarks from the folks of G-P-R about Julie. She seems to really be mobilized and motivated. Sounds this is one candidate who is serious about taking back the riding. The incumbent does appear to have support as well, but buzz is surrounding the Liberals at this point and in a riding that was already in play, I'm confident in calling this one a liberal steal.
    11 04 20 R.O.
    sure the riding was liberal for a longtime before he was mp but so were alot of other ridings and they don't seem to be running back to the liberals either. the liberals are having a much more difficult time winning back ridings lost to conservatives than they expected, they assumed this one easily come back in 08 and it didn't. if they forced election assuming the lost seats come running back it appears they may have seriously misjudged that one. also don't see the liberals doing as well here without Dan Boudria the new candidate just doesn't seem to have as much profile as he did.
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    One of the more favourable ridings for Liberals in rural Canada, but like much of Eastern Ontario has being swinging to the right. Looking at the past results, the Liberals need around a 7-8 point lead in Ontario to take this and they don't have this and unless something dramatic happens not enough time to close this gap. Also the Francophones may still favour the Liberals but not by the massive margins they use to while the Anglophones use to lean Liberal largely because the Liberals won the Catholic vote and most Anglophones are Catholic here, but today the Anglophone polls went massively Tory like the rest of Eastern Ontario (55-60% range). The real question is can the Liberals make this more competitive or do the Tories solidify their grip on this riding.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    If the Liberals were to pick up a rural riding this might be it (or Essex) but I'm not convinced unless the Conservatives start losing in the Ontario polls.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    One of the rural ridings in Ontario the Liberals at least have an outside chance at winning, still this is not the Liberal stronghold it once was and like the rest of Eastern Ontario has trended rightward over the past decade. The Liberals still have a slight edge amongst the Francophone majority but not the massive numbers they once had while the Tories rack up massive margins amongst Anglophone voters thus at the moment the Tories would probably win by about 10% but until we get closer to the election I would hold off making a prediction.
    11 04 01 S.C
    Julie Bourgeois Campaign has begun with a bang! She seems to have made a big impression on the region in the first week of her campaigning, along with the national campaign making positive strides, I can see the return of the Liberal colours in GPR. The first week of the campaign Bourgeois made it clear she would not take any nonsense or false information from her opponent. She fired the first warning shot over Lemieux's bow by calling him on his March 25th Press release on Volunteer Firefighter, were he stated that the Liberal Party did not support our Volunteer Firefighter bill in the spring budget, when in fact the Liberal Party was the first party to bring it forward in 2010 by Mr. Ignatieff.
    If these are signs of Bourgeois to strike when the iron is hot, it will be an exciting campaign.
    Liberals could very well be heading towards a strong win!
    11 03 27 D.C
    Lemieux has worked hard in this riding to gain the popularity he has, the 2008 results reflected this, giving him a 5000 vote lead. I think this riding has truly switched to the tory side, like most of rural Ontario. No doubt the incumbent with 2 elections in his experience and a large conservative base will have no trouble holding this riding.
    11 03 14 Embrum
    Because of the Boudria, I refused to vote liberal in 2008…The political situation today is quite different in GPR. Julie Bourgeois is a strong candidate, fluently bilingual and in touch with the farmers and rural people. On the other side Lemieux is less and less popular. The liberal swing has started in Hawkesbury when Berthiaume (the 2006 liberal candidate) was elected mayor. My family and I, plus many neighbors are voting liberal this year... Embrun will be red....
    11 03 02 Red Train
    There have been rumblings from within this riding on some of Lemieux's unpopular stands, one such, was his vote against bilingual judges in the SC of Canada.
    GPR being a large francophone community, this vote has awaken some long time liberal supporters whom may have abstained from voting Liberal in 06-08 due to controversies at the time. Liberal functions seem to be on the rise ever since and the new Liberal candidate Bourgeois has the credentials, personality and a large following, especially noted after her landslide nomination win. I hear a Liberal train a com'in...
    09 01 01 A.S.
    Well, you can't simply blame the Liberal sweeps; it isn't like every Ontario Liberal topped off at a banana-republic-esque 80%(!), as Don Boudria did in 1993. But by 2004 the early sponsorship-scandalesque stirrings *did* dampen Boudria's popularity, and upon his retirement the Tories finished business--and they're parked there as long as the Liberals remain not ready for prime time, as the defeat of Boudria fils proved. Helping things along is that the exurban national-capital-region growth in the Cumberland/Russell zone tends to favour CPC. But the seat remains borderline; and provincially, it remains as solidly Liberal as ever--a real case of where, almost to the very end, it all depends on which way the federal campaign dynamics shift...
    09 12 09 Cool Blue
    The executive of the Liberal riding association has resigned en mass and accused their candidate of inappropriate use of funds. I'm still going Lemieux on this one.
    09 09 29 Stevo
    I never really believed all the hype about how immensely popular Don Boudria allegedly was here (He was elected so many times? Big deal. From 1993-2004 his victories were part of Ontario-wide Liberal sweeps, and earlier on as part of a mild rural Ontario contrarian anti-Mulroney/anti-free trade push), so it wasn't a surprise to me when his son underperformed. With that in mind, I'm not inclined to go along with the 'if Boudria's son lost here by 10 points, the Libs have no chance next time!' argument.
    By Eastern Ontario standards, this is an area of pretty tepid CPC support, and I don't think one can really call this one way or another until mid-campaign.
    09 09 15 Cool Blue
    Although the Liberals picked the best candidate of the bunch I believe that Lemieux will win again.
    Don Boudria and his team backed one of the losing candidates and combined with the ouster of his son as the candidate the experienced Boudria team will be sitting this one out.
    All this means that Bourgeois will have an inexperienced campaign team, a divided base of supporters and according to local rumors a near-empty bank account. Therefore, I predict another win by Pierre Lemieux in the fall.
    09 09 11 R.O.
    The history of this riding makes it a particularly interesting race as what was once likely the safest liberal seat in ontario is now a conservative riding with an incumbent mp who just got re-elected last year. and from what i read incumbency is a big advantage in this riding. Pierre Lemieux also remains personally popular and well liked in the riding so i think he has the advantage here. he has invested a lot of federal funds for various projects in the riding as well during his time as mp. the liberals have once again found a new candidate but i actually though Dan Boudria was a much stronger candidate than the new one just nominated so i'd be surprised if they did much better here.
    09 09 04 Marco Ricci
    What had been a close race in 2006 was won by the Conservatives by 10 percentage points in 2008, even with the son of Don Boudria running for the Liberals. This time there will be no Boudria running for the Liberals as the new Liberal candidate Julie Bourgeois was chosen as the nominee this week.
    She appears to be a strong candidate and there was a lot of enthusiasm among the membership for her according to the news report on this riding broadcast on Radio-Canada this week. She is fluently bilingual, in touch with the farmers and rural people and very determined.
    She has a shot here, but in order to win this riding back, the Liberals will probably need to beat the Conservatives in Ontario by several percentage points - not be way down in the Ontario vote like they were in 2008.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Despite having to fend off the name recognition of a Boudria, Lemieux increased his total here, after winning one of the narrowest races in the country in '06. Add to that his increased profile as PS for Agriculture, and he should hold this rural riding.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster