08 04 23	R.O. 66.186.79.25
Well some are still likely surprised that this riding has a conservative mp as it was once one of the most liberal ridings anywhere and still is at provincial level. But at the federal level in eastern Ontario there has been a swing towards the conservatives especially in rural and suburban areas that made a victory here possible. Its tough to say what the liberals chances are to take such a riding back now that it has a conservative mp Pierre Lemieux. It likely would of stayed liberal had Don Boudria not retired before the last election. But the next election here will be one of the most interesting the riding has seen in years.
	08 04 05	Curley Larry and Moe 24.244.244.114
We've been around a long time and the belief in Ottawa was that Glengarry-Prescott-Russell was alwas more of a Don Boudria ridng than a Liberal stronghold. From his Rat Pack days, Don developed a fighter reputation in his home riding that allowed him to survive the ups and downs of Liberal fortunes for decades. When Boudria retired, this riding was up for grabs and moved, in our opinion back to where it would have been without Don and that's a rural conservative district. There's no reason to think the Liberals are going to make any gains in rural Ontario and therefore this riding will remain Conservative. If the Liberals do in fact lose this riding, it will not be devastating as Stevo claims. It will simply be a Conservative hold in a riding they should win.
	08 03 30	Stevo 76.64.64.5
Amazing. In a riding that Tories couldn't even win in the 1984 Mulroney landslide (by contrast, Liberal Don Boudria won it by a stunning 10,000 votes, the largest margin of victory for any Liberal in Ontario, and probably the largest in Canada outside anglo-Montreal), the new Conservative popularity has become so ubiquitous in Eastern Ontario that they managed to squeak by in GPR in 2006 - and all it took was a small nationwide minority government plurality, rather than a majority landslide. Like Essex, any consistent and continuing Conservative success here would be devastating for the Liberals. It would be brave to make any sort of prediction here given the close result in 2006, but the regional trends certainly don't favour the Liberals!
	08 02 29	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
While it's true this riding was a Liberal lock for over a century, the Times They Are A Changin' in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. Pierre Lemieux struck a chord in this Francophone riding last time and won in an upset. I believe this riding like many in the Quebec City area, although mostly French had a right wing, rural flavour to it that came to the front in the last election. The Liberals also got lazy in a riding they thought they could never lose. A lack of fundraising and an aging campaign team did play a part in the Liberal loss last time. I predict Lemieux wins by 1000 votes this time.
	08 02 18	Seamus 216.106.109.85
I think Daniel is under the impression that this riding is an Eastern Ontario riding. It is geographically, but definitely not culturally. This riding is over 60% francophone; the rest of Eastern Ontario is overwhelmingly English. Franco-Ontarians are quite liberal politically. We also have to look at history; the G-P-R area had been Liberal since 1886 before Pierre Lemieux came around.
	08 01 11	Ogryx 66.46.213.194
Allow me to explain further. This riding was once considered so safe for the Liberals that no energy or strong campaign was needed in order for them to win it. The CPC has gained some ground because the riding is more and more a suburb of Ottawa, in which newcomers are attracted by the CPC tax cuts. But generally speaking, the riding is strongly francophone and the french vote is liberal, provincially and federally. I expect the liberal vote to increase significantly in the next election because voters in this riding now understand that it's no longer a liberal safe seat.
	07 12 16	Daniel 156.34.83.10
I'm not sure why Seamus and Ogryx seem so certain that this riding will come flying back to the Liberals. Granted, I don't live in the riding, but I'll offer my opinion: Dan Boudria may be the son of Don Boudria, but I don't think that means he'll simply be coroneted as MP, for a couple of reasons. Don Boudria, despite having been a prolific, popular and electorally successful cabinet minister under Jean Chretien, only won this riding by 5,000 votes in 2004. Significant, considering Boudria regularly outpolled the COMBINED right-of-centre vote by 3-to-1 margins (or greater) in the 1993, 1997, and 2000 elections - this means that the Boudria name clearly isn't the untarnished golden mantle it once was. Secondly, infighting among local Liberals may have caused a few Liberals to stay home last time, but the effect must have been marginal, as the Liberal vote dropped only slightly from 2004 to 2006. The Conservatives, on the other hand, picked up about 5,000 new votes, suggesting that the Conservative win here owed more to increased voter turnout than to mass Liberal abstention. This riding may be a bastion for McGuinty's Liberals provincially, but federally, G-P-R seems to be trending the way of its fellow Eastern Ontario ridings in becoming more CPC-friendly. Definitely one to watch.
	07 12 07	Ogryx 66.46.213.194
This was one of the closest race in the country last time, but I expect the liberals to win it again. Last time around they had a nasty nomination fight that assured many liberals to stay home; now they assured to gain from Don Boudria's popularity by nominating his son Dan. The riding strong francophone population is behind the liberals.
	07 12 03	R.O. 209.91.149.214
Say too close to call for now , but The new conservative mp Pierre Lemieux has a realistic chance of holding on to this seat but this riding has been mostly liberal historically. And liberals are running son of former mp Don Boudria, in Ontario there is a few examples at provincial level where children of former mpp’s have gone on to become successful mpp’s. So that remains a possibility here , note not all were elected on first attempt at politics.
	07 09 23	Seamus Smythe 216.106.111.239
I know I was saying a Conservative victory several months ago, but a new study by the local research firm is showing that there has been a decisive change in momentum in G-P-R. Liberals now dominate in Rockland, Embrun and Hawkesbury, and have made significant inroads into Russell, The Nation and North Glengarry, while still holding their dominant lead in Cumberland. Rockland, Embrun, and Hawkesbury together have a third of the riding's population - and if you add Cumberland, Russell, The Nation and Alexandria you are at nearly two-thirds of the riding's population - the Liberals have a much better chance at winning this riding now.
	07 05 14	Seamus Smythe 216.106.109.228
There is only one thing that is very likely in this riding: it will be a close race. I think it will probably go Conservative, but there is still a strong chance it could go Liberal. If Dan Boudria runs, then the probability of G-P-R going Liberal is higher, but even then it will likely go Conservative because Don Boudria's popularity was going down well before he retired. Also, recent linguistic changes will come into play in this riding. The anglophones in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell tend to support the Conservatives, while the francophones tend to support the Liberals (although there are a significant number of exceptions). The percentage of Anglophones has been steadily rising for several years now (20 years ago, this riding was extremely French, but now it is almost half-half). Each community usually has a clear majority in favour of a particular party (this is a rural riding, with several dozen villages/towns around). The exception is Embrun, which is almost evenly split (although there is slightly more support for the Conservatives in Embrun). In Casselman, Plantagenet, Alfred, and Hawkesbury, most people tend to support the Liberals, while most people in Maxville, Alexandria and Russell tend to support the Conservatives. Although Rockland is tradionally a Liberal stronghold (and still is to some degree), the Conservatives have gained significant ground there in the past few months. Rockland, Embrun and Russell are the fastest growing towns, so if they continue moving towards the Conservatives, it will make it much more likely that the Conservatives will win this riding.
	07 04 22	A.S. 74.99.222.209
There are perils to running on raw Grit family coattails, as '06's hapless Michael Gaffney in Nepean-Carleton will tell you--then again, one might counter-offer that the Liberals wouldn't have lost Boudria's bulwark in the first place, had their '06 candidate been less pedestrian. Despite the apparently unrelenting Tory turn of far-eastern Ontario (now spiked by ADQland proximity) GPR remains extremely top-target knife-edge, esp. w/Junyer Boudria bearing the standard--look, five years ago, *no* sane Tory prediction here was conceivable. Even if the Grits lose further ground to the Tories in Ontario, this could buck the trend by shifting the other way, if only because of, well, tradition...
	07 04 14	Denis Agar 74.13.81.98
Brian, I really hope you're joking. Have you ever been to the riding? Dan Boudria will have absolutely no problem taking the riding. And a large part of the reason why is because his name is one letter off from his father's.
	07 04 12	Brian Appel 64.230.124.52
I just thought I'd mention that it was announced today in the local paper that Don Boudria's son, Dan Boudria, will be running for the Liberal nomination here, and is expected to win fairly easy. The guy is a local school trustee, a relatively nice guy, but completely unknown. Plus, his father will likely be his campaign manager so he's probably going to go wih the ‘You voted for my dad, so vote for me’ angle. Unless his dad can also convince all of his old supporters to vote for his son, I maintain my prediction of a Conservative hold.
	07 04 08	Brian Appel 70.48.240.240
This riding, which stretches right to the border with La Belle Province and has a francophone population of over 60%, used to be one of the safest Liberal ridings in Ontario. Boudria used to win here with numbers that you'd usually see connected to a Conservative running in rural Alberta. Like between 70% and 80%. Now, this riding, similar to my riding - the neighbouring Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - has become Conservative blue and proud of it. I predict it won't be close here next time around. Easy Conservative hold.
	07 03 25	Steve V. 69.49.43.86
This one did favour the Liberals for years. But take a look to 2004 - Don Boudria's traditionally huge win was pared down some in line with a trend that handed most of Eastern Ontario to the CPC. The results in January 2006 followed the same trend - even bigger wins in this part of the province for the CPC. Additionally, the CPC has improved its performance in non-Quebec Francophone ridings (this is a big one) - look at their results from 2000-2006 in Welland, Ottawa--Orleans (ON), Madawaska--Restigouche (NB) and Saint-Boniface (MB). This one is going to be tighter than the rest of Eastern Ontario, but the CPC is fairly well-positioned here.
	07 03 24	74.99.130.109
I wouldn't say this is as much of a Liberal stronghold as it uses to be. Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry and Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke also use to be Liberal stronholds, but now are Tory strongholds. This much like the rest of Rural Eastern Ontario had been swinging rightward over the last few elections, so a lot will depend on whether this is a continuous trend or whether the the trend is reversed. Too early to tell.
	07 03 21	Jack Cox 142.55.209.48
It's over for the Tories in this riding, This was just sheer luck from last time because the Liberal vote was heavily discouraged. This time around Pierre Lemieux will likely lose due to the fact the history in the riding has strongly favored the liberals.