Prediction Changed
6:04 PM 11/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Boudria, Dan
New Democratic
Caron, Jean-Sébastien
Lemieux, Pierre
Lemieux, Sylvie

Pierre Lemieux

2006 Result:
Pierre Lemieux
René Berthiaume
Jo-Ann Fennessey
Bonnie Jean-Louis

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 11 I'm Always Right
The Liberals have staged a big comeback in the last week but it's not going to be enough to lift Don Boudria's kid to victory in this riding.
Pierre Lemieux will like every other Conservative in rural Ontario, hold his seat without breaking a sweat. This will be the worst beating anyone with the last name Boudria has ever taken.
08 10 10 Joshua Zuckerman
Today's Ottawa papers contain a list of all the candidates that have been endorsed by PSAC (Public Service Alliance of Canada). One of the things that was mentioned in the article is that PSAC did not endorse a single Conservative candidate anywhere in Ottawa or the Outaouais. Therefore, Liberal Dan Boudria was endorsed for this riding. It's hard to know whether this will make an impact in the riding, but it is certainly a point in his favour. Justin Trudeau also visited this riding over the past week to support Boudria.
However, I still get the sense that despite the Boudria name, the PSAC endorsement and the visit by Trudeau that the Conservative incumbent may edge him out here.
08 10 09 JMC
The Tories took a big hit in their numbers in Ontario this week. Heading in the home strech the Grits have the momentum - with people not paying much attention to the campaign this weekend, the numbers probably won't change much come Tuesday.
This riding will once again be won by a margin of less than 1% of the votes. Could go either way.
08 10 05 Cool Blue
Analysis of polls by is predicting a CP victory in GPR and asking Greens and NDPs to vote Lib to block Lemieux.
08 10 03 gorman
Don Boudria held this riding for years and is still well respected. The conservative candidate only won the riding on the wind of the sponsorship scandal. Now that Dan Boudria is running for the Liberals this will return to the libs as name recognition will play out here.
08 09 30 Stevo
Okay, I think I've seen enough. Although by most accounts the Conservative poll numbers have stalled in the high-30s, that has been due to a waning of their numbers in Quebec. In Ontario, by contrast, the cuts to arts programs were mostly neutral in terms of support, and the youth crime initiative is widely popular. I see almost no chance for the Liberals to pick up any current Tory seats in Ontario, least of all here in the Tories' Eastern Ontario stronghold. Dan Boudria thought that he could use his dad's name as a quick pass to Parliament, but it won't work.
Prediction: CPC 41%, Liberal 32%, NDP 17%, Greens 10%
08 09 26 Cool Blue
If any one was wondering how many people went to the Dion event: 40
08 09 26 Red or Blue?
Last election, Canada was all caught up in the scandal with Chrétien. In consequence, when the election came around, canadians remembered were quite upset at the federal government and had lost faith in the Liberal Party. I believe that a lot of people when out and voted ‘against’ the liberal party to send them a strong message. For the ones who could not live with the tought of going against their liberal voting habit, they simply chose not to vote at all. This was the population's way of sending a strong message to the federal government about the importance of transparency. In GPR, the situation was no different. Furthermore, the liberal candidate relied too much on the saying that the riding was a liberal one and assumed to be elected simply because he was red.
On the other hand, I have to say that Pierre Lemieux worked hard and had the support of the Cumberland-Orleans area that had an important impact in the end. As some of you have mentionned before, Dan Boudria's name will work to his advantage but I believe it will also work to a certain extend to his disadvantage. To his advantage because of his father's history in the riding with his crushing victories and important portfolio. To his disadvantage because by the time his father retired, his popularity had gone down the gutter. Another factor in this election that will weight in the balance is the fact that the liberal party leader is, let's put it that way, ‘not the strongest team player on the liberal team’. Since the last election, Pierre Lemieux got a hold of the riding. In my humble opinion, the guy didn't do much for GPR beside spending a considerable amount of money on publicity.
Now that the tensions from the Chrétien scandal has some what cleared off, will the riding go back red? I think it's too close to tell at this time but rest assured that the CPC will work hard to keep this riding blue.
08 09 25 Time to Pay the Piper
The Conservatives after losing this riding time after time finally got smart an nominated a Fracophone candidate with wide appeal. Pierre Lemieux has done a solid job since being elected and has built the best organization in the area. Dan Boudria has the family name but not much else. No money, not much of a campaign and a party label that just isn't popular in this part of Ontario. Lemieux will win easily.
08 09 25 BJ
I think (read hope) that this riding will go back to the liberal's. the name BOUDRIA has a lot of clout in this riding... only time will tell
08 09 21
Just so you know, this isn't the largest francophone riding outside Quebec, Acadie-Bathurst is. It's about 80% francophone. Just so you know.
08 09 21 Bernard Manning
Yep. Hard to believe it but Don Boudria won this riding by 40,000+ votes in 1993 which had dwindled to 5,000+ votes by 2004. You now have a perfect storm of a rapidly expanding Ottawa commuter town (Cumberland) + rural riding + NDP/Green doing better. There won't be 200 votes in it this time. Neon Dion was in Alexandria on Saturday, as incoherent as ever, providing the last piece of the puzzle. This will complete the Tory sweep of Eastern Ontario.
08 09 20 rebel
This is inevitably going to be a tight riding but the growth in the Cumberland suburbs of Ottawa which voted massively Conservative last time. Two years of demographic improvement for the Party should help keep the riding Conservative.
08 09 19 Cool Blue
Lemieux just had a rally with the PM that had over 1000 people attend.
Dion is coming to the riding, let's see how many he can get (I predict less than 200).
The Libs have more large signs on public land, but the bleus have more on private property. I just drove through the town of Limoges, traditionally an area of high Lib support and on the main road there were over 30 blue signs of people's yards. The Libs only had 3.
True this is a Francophone riding, however there has been a lot of newcomers over the last 10 years, if I'm not mistaken the riding has grown by 6% since 2001. The French/English split is around 55/45 now.
One thing to watch is how well the NDP and Greens do which will eat into Liberal votes. In 2006 the NDP almost doubled their vote over 2004.
It's gonna be tight, but I predict Lemieux will take it.
08 09 14 Seamus
People keep pointing out about how G-P-R is part of Eastern Ontario (the bluest part of the country outside the West). But this riding is very different. This riding is two-thirds francophone (in fact, GPR is the most francophone riding in Canada outside of Quebec), whereas the rest of East Ontario is English. This creates a very different political environment. This riding is part of Battleground '08 according to CTV News, and it could very well go either way. Lemieux isn't 'hugely popular' throughout the riding; he's popular in Embrun, Russell, and Casselman, but he's often criticized elsewhere.
08 09 12 Paul Tremblay
The Conservatives had a long, unfortunate tradition of nominating candidates who were or sounded like anti-french bigots. In 2006 they were finally smart enough to nominate a francophone as their candidate and it paid bigtime.
Incumbency matters in this riding, and in addition Pierre Lemieux is well-known, respected and popular.
Don Boudria was admittedly popular for a long time but people tend to forget that in the last few years his popularity was not what it used to be. His son's name will not get the Liberals many votes, it won't be a vote-loser but merely not being a vote-loser is not what it takes for the Liberals to win.
I expect a Conservative win by at least 2,500 votes.
08 09 09 Nica
I live in this rising. The CPC candidate has a high profile locally, the guy shows up at everything and is very good at self-promotion. Dan Boudria's name will help some, but there were people, particularly in the farming community, that were not so fond of Don towards the end. The Boudria last name will not be the guarantee that it would seem at first blush. If Boudria wins, it will not be from rural support.
08 04 23 R.O.
Well some are still likely surprised that this riding has a conservative mp as it was once one of the most liberal ridings anywhere and still is at provincial level. But at the federal level in eastern Ontario there has been a swing towards the conservatives especially in rural and suburban areas that made a victory here possible. Its tough to say what the liberals chances are to take such a riding back now that it has a conservative mp Pierre Lemieux. It likely would of stayed liberal had Don Boudria not retired before the last election. But the next election here will be one of the most interesting the riding has seen in years.
08 04 05 Curley Larry and Moe
We've been around a long time and the belief in Ottawa was that Glengarry-Prescott-Russell was alwas more of a Don Boudria ridng than a Liberal stronghold. From his Rat Pack days, Don developed a fighter reputation in his home riding that allowed him to survive the ups and downs of Liberal fortunes for decades. When Boudria retired, this riding was up for grabs and moved, in our opinion back to where it would have been without Don and that's a rural conservative district. There's no reason to think the Liberals are going to make any gains in rural Ontario and therefore this riding will remain Conservative. If the Liberals do in fact lose this riding, it will not be devastating as Stevo claims. It will simply be a Conservative hold in a riding they should win.
08 03 30 Stevo
Amazing. In a riding that Tories couldn't even win in the 1984 Mulroney landslide (by contrast, Liberal Don Boudria won it by a stunning 10,000 votes, the largest margin of victory for any Liberal in Ontario, and probably the largest in Canada outside anglo-Montreal), the new Conservative popularity has become so ubiquitous in Eastern Ontario that they managed to squeak by in GPR in 2006 - and all it took was a small nationwide minority government plurality, rather than a majority landslide. Like Essex, any consistent and continuing Conservative success here would be devastating for the Liberals. It would be brave to make any sort of prediction here given the close result in 2006, but the regional trends certainly don't favour the Liberals!
08 02 29 Peg Leg Pete
While it's true this riding was a Liberal lock for over a century, the Times They Are A Changin' in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. Pierre Lemieux struck a chord in this Francophone riding last time and won in an upset.
I believe this riding like many in the Quebec City area, although mostly French had a right wing, rural flavour to it that came to the front in the last election. The Liberals also got lazy in a riding they thought they could never lose. A lack of fundraising and an aging campaign team did play a part in the Liberal loss last time. I predict Lemieux wins by 1000 votes this time.
08 02 18 Seamus
I think Daniel is under the impression that this riding is an Eastern Ontario riding. It is geographically, but definitely not culturally. This riding is over 60% francophone; the rest of Eastern Ontario is overwhelmingly English. Franco-Ontarians are quite liberal politically. We also have to look at history; the G-P-R area had been Liberal since 1886 before Pierre Lemieux came around.
08 01 11 Ogryx
Allow me to explain further. This riding was once considered so safe for the Liberals that no energy or strong campaign was needed in order for them to win it. The CPC has gained some ground because the riding is more and more a suburb of Ottawa, in which newcomers are attracted by the CPC tax cuts.
But generally speaking, the riding is strongly francophone and the french vote is liberal, provincially and federally. I expect the liberal vote to increase significantly in the next election because voters in this riding now understand that it's no longer a liberal safe seat.
07 12 16 Daniel
I'm not sure why Seamus and Ogryx seem so certain that this riding will come flying back to the Liberals. Granted, I don't live in the riding, but I'll offer my opinion: Dan Boudria may be the son of Don Boudria, but I don't think that means he'll simply be coroneted as MP, for a couple of reasons. Don Boudria, despite having been a prolific, popular and electorally successful cabinet minister under Jean Chretien, only won this riding by 5,000 votes in 2004. Significant, considering Boudria regularly outpolled the COMBINED right-of-centre vote by 3-to-1 margins (or greater) in the 1993, 1997, and 2000 elections - this means that the Boudria name clearly isn't the untarnished golden mantle it once was. Secondly, infighting among local Liberals may have caused a few Liberals to stay home last time, but the effect must have been marginal, as the Liberal vote dropped only slightly from 2004 to 2006. The Conservatives, on the other hand, picked up about 5,000 new votes, suggesting that the Conservative win here owed more to increased voter turnout than to mass Liberal abstention.
This riding may be a bastion for McGuinty's Liberals provincially, but federally, G-P-R seems to be trending the way of its fellow Eastern Ontario ridings in becoming more CPC-friendly. Definitely one to watch.
07 12 07 Ogryx
This was one of the closest race in the country last time, but I expect the liberals to win it again. Last time around they had a nasty nomination fight that assured many liberals to stay home; now they assured to gain from Don Boudria's popularity by nominating his son Dan. The riding strong francophone population is behind the liberals.
07 12 03 R.O.
Say too close to call for now , but The new conservative mp Pierre Lemieux has a realistic chance of holding on to this seat but this riding has been mostly liberal historically. And liberals are running son of former mp Don Boudria, in Ontario there is a few examples at provincial level where children of former mpp’s have gone on to become successful mpp’s. So that remains a possibility here , note not all were elected on first attempt at politics.
07 09 23 Seamus Smythe
I know I was saying a Conservative victory several months ago, but a new study by the local research firm is showing that there has been a decisive change in momentum in G-P-R. Liberals now dominate in Rockland, Embrun and Hawkesbury, and have made significant inroads into Russell, The Nation and North Glengarry, while still holding their dominant lead in Cumberland. Rockland, Embrun, and Hawkesbury together have a third of the riding's population - and if you add Cumberland, Russell, The Nation and Alexandria you are at nearly two-thirds of the riding's population - the Liberals have a much better chance at winning this riding now.
07 05 14 Seamus Smythe
There is only one thing that is very likely in this riding: it will be a close race. I think it will probably go Conservative, but there is still a strong chance it could go Liberal. If Dan Boudria runs, then the probability of G-P-R going Liberal is higher, but even then it will likely go Conservative because Don Boudria's popularity was going down well before he retired.
Also, recent linguistic changes will come into play in this riding. The anglophones in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell tend to support the Conservatives, while the francophones tend to support the Liberals (although there are a significant number of exceptions). The percentage of Anglophones has been steadily rising for several years now (20 years ago, this riding was extremely French, but now it is almost half-half).
Each community usually has a clear majority in favour of a particular party (this is a rural riding, with several dozen villages/towns around). The exception is Embrun, which is almost evenly split (although there is slightly more support for the Conservatives in Embrun). In Casselman, Plantagenet, Alfred, and Hawkesbury, most people tend to support the Liberals, while most people in Maxville, Alexandria and Russell tend to support the Conservatives. Although Rockland is tradionally a Liberal stronghold (and still is to some degree), the Conservatives have gained significant ground there in the past few months. Rockland, Embrun and Russell are the fastest growing towns, so if they continue moving towards the Conservatives, it will make it much more likely that the Conservatives will win this riding.
07 04 22 A.S.
There are perils to running on raw Grit family coattails, as '06's hapless Michael Gaffney in Nepean-Carleton will tell you--then again, one might counter-offer that the Liberals wouldn't have lost Boudria's bulwark in the first place, had their '06 candidate been less pedestrian. Despite the apparently unrelenting Tory turn of far-eastern Ontario (now spiked by ADQland proximity) GPR remains extremely top-target knife-edge, esp. w/Junyer Boudria bearing the standard--look, five years ago, *no* sane Tory prediction here was conceivable. Even if the Grits lose further ground to the Tories in Ontario, this could buck the trend by shifting the other way, if only because of, well, tradition...
07 04 14 Denis Agar
Brian, I really hope you're joking. Have you ever been to the riding? Dan Boudria will have absolutely no problem taking the riding. And a large part of the reason why is because his name is one letter off from his father's.
07 04 12 Brian Appel
I just thought I'd mention that it was announced today in the local paper that Don Boudria's son, Dan Boudria, will be running for the Liberal nomination here, and is expected to win fairly easy. The guy is a local school trustee, a relatively nice guy, but completely unknown. Plus, his father will likely be his campaign manager so he's probably going to go wih the ‘You voted for my dad, so vote for me’ angle. Unless his dad can also convince all of his old supporters to vote for his son, I maintain my prediction of a Conservative hold.
07 04 08 Brian Appel
This riding, which stretches right to the border with La Belle Province and has a francophone population of over 60%, used to be one of the safest Liberal ridings in Ontario. Boudria used to win here with numbers that you'd usually see connected to a Conservative running in rural Alberta. Like between 70% and 80%. Now, this riding, similar to my riding - the neighbouring Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - has become Conservative blue and proud of it. I predict it won't be close here next time around. Easy Conservative hold.
07 03 25 Steve V.
This one did favour the Liberals for years. But take a look to 2004 - Don Boudria's traditionally huge win was pared down some in line with a trend that handed most of Eastern Ontario to the CPC. The results in January 2006 followed the same trend - even bigger wins in this part of the province for the CPC. Additionally, the CPC has improved its performance in non-Quebec Francophone ridings (this is a big one) - look at their results from 2000-2006 in Welland, Ottawa--Orleans (ON), Madawaska--Restigouche (NB) and Saint-Boniface (MB).
This one is going to be tighter than the rest of Eastern Ontario, but the CPC is fairly well-positioned here.
07 03 24
I wouldn't say this is as much of a Liberal stronghold as it uses to be. Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry and Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke also use to be Liberal stronholds, but now are Tory strongholds. This much like the rest of Rural Eastern Ontario had been swinging rightward over the last few elections, so a lot will depend on whether this is a continuous trend or whether the the trend is reversed. Too early to tell.
07 03 21 Jack Cox
It's over for the Tories in this riding, This was just sheer luck from last time because the Liberal vote was heavily discouraged. This time around Pierre Lemieux will likely lose due to the fact the history in the riding has strongly favored the liberals.

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