Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Daudlin, Matt

Franko, Ron

Hodgson, Robert

Van Kesteren, Dave

Dave Van Kesteren

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • chatham-kent-essex (209/209 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 24 C.A.B.
    This is the kind of riding that might be vulnerable to the Liberals... if they were on track to getting a comfortable majority of seats in Ontario. Since it doesn't look like that's going to be the case this time, I predict a Tory hold.
    11 04 23 RPM
    Van Kesteren continues to take a beating in the Chatham Daily News for failing to attend local debates. His latest decision to skip a debate for students at Blenheim District High School has damaged his image in the riding and he is now being seen as arrogant for taking the voters for granted. He stated in the paper that he made a decision early on to limit the number of debates he would attend. By doing so and rarely going door-to-door to talk to voters, he seems to be taking a victory for granted. In this riding, people are much more likely to turn on a candidate who appears to be taking their marching orders from the central campaign and is ignoring local concerns. This riding is not a lock for the Conservatives.
    11 04 17 RPM
    Van Kesteren received some bad press this week for skipping a debate sponsored by the C.A.W. The union says Van Kesteren is being gagged by his party. This should come as no surprise since meeting with any member of the public who is not an obvious supporter goes against their election stategy. Van Kesteren has been able to duck responsibility for the riding's economic woes to this point since most in Chatham choose to blame the mayor even though he is hardly to blame for the loss of manufacturing jobs. This latest move by Van Kesteren to skip a union debate could cause some N.D.P. support to trickle Daudlin's way. This is clearly a two-horse race.
    11 04 16 JB
    Consevatives will win here again. Daudlins claim that he will do well in Leamington is laughable. We remember his father. My beef; why the hell are we voting with Chatham-Kent?
    11 04 10 joey joe joe
    Conservatives likely won't pile up such a big win as last time but it won't be competitive.
    11 04 04 VOTE PREDICTOR
    If the sign war is any predictor of the election outcome (as it was last federal election) Van Kesteren will hold the seat. Van Kesteren is well liked and recieves many votes from many former liberal and other party supporters. Last election was a huge win look to see and even bigger margin this time.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    While the Liberals use to do well here, the Tories nearly won this in 2004 when there were much weaker in Ontario and the Liberals had the incumbent advantage, thus while Liberals may have pockets of support and if the campaign goes well they may even come within 10%, I cannot see them winning this.
    10 01 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Would argue that this is one of the softer seats for the CPC in rural Ontario. It will be closer this time with the Liberal-rebound in the polls and the re-emergence of sleeping voters who stayed home last time, but the CPC will still win it. Might be viewed as a second tier target for the Grits. Could very well see a scenario where NDP strength, both east and west of this riding, robbing a hypothetically resurged Liberal party of a victory via vote splitting. Something like what is shaping up (has already happened?) in Essex? Another question; what will happen with redistribution when it comes? We think that there will be at least one new riding, probably two, in the extreme southwest of Ontario. One centered around London, the other centered around Windsor. This would realign the current rural ridings and depending on what part of this riding gets shifted, we may see some of the less-Liberal-friendly regions being shifted into other ridings. Bottom line Van Kesteren may lose some of his strongest supporters. This is all academic for the time being but we suspect that this riding will become far more interesting in the races to come as opposed to this current race.
    10 01 23 A.S.
    Since we're talking about the deep reaches of SW Ontario with a battered-manufacturing-economy tinge and a historically Liberal lean, I'm still hesitant about handing CKE to DVK for the CPC on a platter--although if anything works to the Tories' advantage, it's the potential collateral cannibalization of the left-Liberal base due to serious NDP targets and seats all around it. And true, Grit standard-bearer Steve Pickard may be the son of former MP Jerry; but 2008's Grit standard-bearer Bob Daudlin was the son of former MP Matt, and that didn't help much. Still, ‘the economy, stupid’.
    10 01 06 R.O.
    Well this riding is located in an area of the province that has lost jobs especially in the automotive sector. The ridings conservative mp Dave Van Kesteren appears to have a clear advantage here. the liberals do plan on running a son of the former mp Jerry Pickard but they also ran a son of a former mp last time as well, so the liberal history in the riding only goes so far. the liberals are also hurt here by the fact the ndp has done well in the riding at times and although the ndp vote went down a bit in 08 they still got a large chuck of the vote. and its hard to envision the ndp doing much worse in a riding near there windsor strongholds , so they will continue to have a presence in the riding. and as the ndp start to target some of the nearby ridings like essex and elgin middlesex london i'm surprised this one hasn't got a bit more attention as well. but either way the conservatives have a clear advantage here and i can't really picture them losing any of there rural southwestern ontario ridings.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    DVK will hold the riding. Overall voter turnout was down in '08, and he lost votes from '06, but his percentage of the vote climbed to a very nice 47%. His lead in '08 was a little more than 7,800. Enough to hang on here.

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