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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:10 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:33 PM 26/03/2004

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Rod Hetherington
Kathleen Kevany
Margaret Mondaca
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Jerry Pickard
Dave Van Kesteren

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Chatham-Kent Essex (100.0%)
Hon. Jerry Pickard

2000 Result/Résultats:
19,894 49.71%
12,826 32.05%
4,130 10.32%
2,182 5.45%
990 2.47%

Chatham-Kent Essex
(209/209 polls, 71859/71859 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 G.C.
Email: [hidden]
The disparaging remarks that Jerry Pickard made about Liberal M.P.P. Pat Hoy in a caucus meeting that found their way into several Sun Media newspapers have damaged his bid for re-election. Hoy is very well-respected in the riding and Pickard has backed himself into a corner by attacking Hoy and now finds himself in a battle to survive come June 28. The Conservatives have taken advantage of this weakness and have been in a position since day one of the campaign to out work Pickard on the ground. This momentum may lead to an upset of sorts on election day. This riding is most definitely in play because of the new dynamics taking place on a local level.
23/06/04 Jeffery Mayjer
Email: [hidden]
I'm predicting a Dave Van Kesteren win in CKE. Heck, Kathleen Kevany of the NDP has almost as much signs as Pickard. Southern Chatham is a sea of blue, as well as are The Maples and the more affluent areas of the city. Tilbury is leaning towards the Tories and so is the rest of the riding. Only Leamington shows their support for Pickard. The NDP have some support in Tilbury. The results will be 50% Van Kesteren, 30% Pickard, 20% Kevany. At least the prediction on this site for CKE should be changed to Too Close, if not Conservative.
22/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Rural South-Western Ontario has done well for the Liberal Party of Canada but the favour wasn't returned especially with the anti-tobacco action, Dave Van Kesteren of the Conservatives will be going to Ottawa, not Grit Jerry Pickard, a long-time backbencher who wasn't done much for the area. Rumours have been heard that the Liberals don't like Dutchie Dave but he's here, he's square, get used to it because he seems to have a support Pickard previously enjoyed from the ground up, even though he is close to the Mike Harris CSR Ontario Tories, which isn't a good thing in this part of the country. When Van Kesteren makes the comment Let's make a deal next, it will be in the backrooms of the Tory braintrust, not on his used-car lot but let's hope all deals are honest.
17/06/04 G.C.
Email: [hidden]
Dalton McGuinty did not visit this riding during the provincial campaign because he was very confident in M.P.P. Pat Hoy's ability to win the riding. However, the Prime Minister made a stop in Chatham which suggests Jerry Pickard is in trouble. It's time to call this riding too close to call.
17/06/04 Bubba
Email: jordanbuddy2002@hotmail.com
All 3 major parties are running excellent campaigns in this riding. The fact Paul Martin is in Chatham today, and the Tory had John Reynolds recently, shows this riding is in play. I still predict a Liberal win, even with the former Liberal MP for the riding, Rex Crawford, going door-to-door with the Tory; but he doesn't get a vote in this riding. The major issues are the economy and health care, and Pickard is on the right side of those, especially with the help provided to protect Navistar jobs. Look for Pickard to win, but it will be close.
16/06/04 Will
Brad hit the nail on the head, this riding is heading for a change like Essex. The only negative Van Kesteren's got going against him is that he is a car-dealer (something the people trust even less than a politican)
10/06/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
In recognizing that fabled grit stronghold Essex is now in play as a potential (and accoridng to some, highly probable) conservative win, it would only be logical to recognize it's traditionally less grit friendly neighbour, Chatham-Kent-Essex, as in the same boat. Furthermore, CKE was another one of the ridings the Global/Barry Kay numbers pegged not just as "too close to call", but as a conservative win.
06/06/04 Chris Warden
Email: [hidden]
Though no polls have been published, it appears to me that Dave(C) is poised to take this riding away from Jerry(L). Jerry's a 16-year backbencher whose political fortunes are thus more tied to the success of the Liberal national campaign (and an unpopular provincial government)than he would ever admit. Look for poor showing of Liberal support in Tilbury, Chatham, while Leamington will provide enough support for Jerry so his defeat won't be too dramatic
04/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is one of the few safe rural Ontario seats for the Liberals. It is certainly not an economic powerhouse, quite frankly it's not really going anywhere. Many people blame this on the Harris government's policies. With this in mind, few would be eager to elect a Conservative federal government who would do the same thing as Harris did. Bottom line is people will go with the devil they know in Jerry Pickard, though he'll have a substantially reduced majority.
17/05/04 Bubba
Email: jordanbuddy2002@yahoo.com
There are many who have grown tired of Pickard's time as MP, but it depends on the campaign the Conservatives run locally. If it's their typical campaign, that tax cuts are the solution, it's a non-starter. Harris-Eves led the way on that disastrous route. The CKE economy is not firing on all cylinders, but up to now, the Conservatives have not offered any better solutions than the Liberals, other than tax cuts. Pickard won handily last time, and he should again. Pat Hoy, the provincial MPP, won with 64% of the vote last year.
13/05/04 Ian Beacock
Email: ivilivan@hotmail.com
I think that CKE is a fairly typical rural Canadian riding - though many people are concerned with the sponsorship scandal, they aren't about to elect Stephen Harper as their PM. He simply hasn't gotten away from his former Alliance far-right image, and I think that voters in this riding feel that Paul Martin is a safer bet than Harper. More locally, Jerry Pickard has done a solid job as MP throughout his tenure, and I'd agree that his Parliamentary Secretary position will help him quite significantly. I definitely see this riding going once more to the Liberals.
01/05/04 AlanSmithee
Email: [hidden]
Jerry Pickard has angered a lot of people in CKE with his uncaring stance on the Emerald Ash Borer crisis. At other times this riding would be a relatively safe one, but if Van Kesteren's team can turn this into a local issue it could be a Tory pickup.
24/04/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
One clarification: although what is now CKE elected Mulroney Tories in 1984, it did *not* re-elect them in 1988. Which is no slur on past Conservative electability; while the former Essex-Kent had a predominantly Liberal history, the Chatham part and points beyond tended to be more federal Lib/PC swing territory, so it all accorded to form (in part). Still, the historical ledger favours the Liberals in this land of rural impoverishment and proximity to Windsor. On the other hand, 2000 evidenced a Alliance-friendly swing that palpably contradicted said historical ledger (if not so dramatically as in Essex next door). Despite the fact that this is one of the few slabs of rural SW Ontario to largely resist the 90s Mike Harris pull, a Conservative steal's more within radar than many Grits like to admit--that is, unless a lot of those blue-collar Alliancers choose to obey their Windsor-area brethern and swing NDP instead...
14/04/04 Juan Banger
Email: [hidden]
This riding is not a Liberal stronghold. Conservatives in the past have been elected in this riding, represented at the provincial level by MPP George Parry, MPP Darcy "The Duke Of Kent" McKeough(ex-finance minister of Ontario)...and many others. Chatham-Kent-Essex also elected and re-elected an MP during the Mulroney tenure(which is unlike other ridings surrounding it - en route to Windsor). This will be a riding to watch.
05/04/04 Craig Stevens
Email: [hidden]
Chatham-Kent-Essex has indeed been Liberal for some time, however, with the united Conservative party it isn't safe to say they have a lock on the riding.
"The party dominates this riding at the provincial level, which should be enough for an easy win for Pickard (if he chooses to run again.)"
Apparently the riding dominates on the provincial level to the point that Jerry Pickard was caught taped in a Liberal caucus meeting attacking the Liberal MPP Pat Hoy for causing the federal liberals so much trouble from comments made during the provincial election. One part of his talk which he was un-aware was being taped, was about environmental issues, he called Hoy a "tree hugger". This event didn't go unnoticed.
Also, during a dispute of land between local landowners and the Caldwell Indians Pickard claimed was unaware of action being taken by the federal Minister of Native Affairs. The Indian Affairs dep. had planned on giving up the land to create a reserve; this caused great controversy among residents in the more rural farm areas of Chatham-Kent-Essex.
Face facts, people have associated the Liberal brand with corruption, the same goes for Chatham-Kent-Essex. Jerry Pickard is being painted with the same brush.
Having said all this, there is one variable, if Dave VanKesteren does not run a moderate, mainstream campaign; if his campaign focuses on social issues, then the Conservative Party will not get the votes of former Progressive Conservatives, and thus will lose.
02/04/04 stewacide
Email: [hidden]
My home riding and a lock for the Liberals. MP Jerry Pickard has been a solid backbencher, and his new junior cabinet position in charge of border issues (which is a big concern around here) will only help.
Also this isn’t a rural riding in the normal Canadian sense. While over half of the population lives outside the city of Chatham, the prevalence of cash cropping means the rural areas are generally wealthier and more diverse than the city (which still has something of a rust-belt vibe). I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the rural areas were more Liberal than Chatham proper, which could even see an NDP resurgence because of uncertainty over the Navistar truck plant.
24/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

This is something of a rarity -- a predominantly rural area in south-western Ontario that's safe for the Liberals. The party dominates this riding at the provincial level, which should be enough for an easy win for Pickard (if he chooses to run again.)
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I am good friends with a few people in this riding, and all of them say to suggest the Liberals wont win is a joke. Looking at some past results, I'd have to agree.

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