08 04 11	T.J. 69.159.230.251
The last election saw a strong swing from the Liberals to the NDP in this riding, partly as a result of a particularly strong and moderate NDP candidate who is not running again in this riding. We can expect to see at least part of this swing reversed, as well as many of the protest votes and abstentions due to the sponsorship scandal return to their traditional alignments. Any Conservative victory here would be contingent upon the success of the NDP in once again attracting traditionally Liberal and undecided voters, rather than on their own efforts - the Conservative base will come out whether they work hard or not, and no amount of hard work on the part of Conservative activists is going to do much to expand beyond it.
	07 04 04	A.S. 74.99.222.209
Actually, Leamington's not to blame for the outsize NDP result; it may be geographically in Essex County, but it's also what ensured Remo Mancini to be 1990's only surviving provincial Liberal W of Bob Nixon and S of Murray Elston. Rather, it's more of a 401-corridor auto-industry spillover thing (also remember the election-eve Ford cutbacks which, accounting for the St. Thomas plant, practically ?bookended? CKE); also, with no Liberal incumbent running, voters might have felt freer to vote with their conscience, and then there was the possible Grit damage caused by Buzz Hargrove's Bloc-support musings in nearby Strathroy, etc. etc. In fact, before the camouflaging effect of the 90s NDP collapse, CKE was an inherently above-average base for NDP support anyway, albeit more provincially than federally--also bear in mind that Chatham-Kent's 1990-95 NDP MPP Randy Hope is now mayor of the county-municipality of Chatham-Kent. What it all meant, anyway, was a ?solid? win for Van Kesteren; but when all is said and done, his share didn't advance far, it's just that the opposition was split, and it looks to be split again. So he may appear safe-ish, but given the lukewarm Tory history here pre-2004, it's a very soft safe-ish...
	07 04 02	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
In 2004, the Tories came within 400 votes of knocking off a Liberal incumbent so despite the past history of this going Liberal, I suspect the next election will be more about closing the gap and then trying to re-take this the election after. The NDP would have to completely collapse and go overwhelmingly Liberal to reclaim this one.
	07 03 30	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.12.178.56
We were not surprised to see this riding go CPC in 2006, but we were surprised how well the NDP did, with numbers similar to neighbouring Essex. Probably a spill-over effect from Leamington. Regardless, the CPC was sufficiently ahead of the Liberals to ensure the Grits won't retake this unless Tory support collapses. NDP support would need to almost collapse completely and all go to the Liberals in order for them to retake it. Tory hold.