Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-03-23 00:05:00

Constituency Profile


Couto, Manuel

Galvao, Susan

Goodyear, Gary

Malette, Jacques

May, Bryan

Hon. Gary Goodyear

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • cambridge (195/209 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 02 Polictico2011
    I sincerely hope that the constituents of Cambridge were paying attention to some of the all-leaders debate. Gary Goodyear, though previously untouched in earlier elections, was put in difficult positions regarding a variety of topics.
    His campaign machine is excellent, though the policies and explanations he had to work with left him much less polished than his former campaigns had allowed.
    Conservatives for delivery, but Liberal for the well informed.
    11 04 29 hr
    Gary Goodyear, regardless of how deceptive he and his Party's record have been in this campaign, is the most organized and has the mathematical base of a united right. Therefore, Goodyear will get slightly more than 50%, followed distantly with the NDP beating the Liberals by more than 3000 votes. The NDP candidate has been articulate and worthy of carrying the ‘why not Jack?’ national sentiment. Bryan May (Liberal), is far and away the weakest candidate locally.
    11 04 20 rabbit
    unlike kitchener and Kit/wloo ridings - this riding should be a safe seat-
    leaders came to Kitchenerwhen passed thru -why defeat a cab minister? - no talk of upset in national press- if tories lose this seat - would mean a ‘real’ lib minority govt on March 2
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    To comment on mini phreek's post, there are no scientists in the Conservative caucus. And yes, many in the scientific community scoff at who is the science minister. Can go on and on about how bad this is but most people won't notice until Chalk River starts leaking radioactive isotopes into the Ottawa river. The people of Cambridge don't care about such things.
    11 04 09 Jack
    This one will not even be close, driving through the riding all you see is the blue of Conservative signs. The Liberal candidate Brad May, is not well known throughout the constituency, he runs a YMCA in far off Woodstock. The Liberal's campaign office is impossible to see, while I am not even sure if there is an NDP office. The only candidate with an organized front is the Honourable Gary Goodyear. He is running a grassroots campaign with great volunteers, and he should not have a problem holding this riding. If lawn signs are a good indicator, after driving through the riding I only saw 4 Liberal lawn signs, and the NDP don't even have signs with their candidates name on it. Most Cambridge residents are probably thinking that Jack Layton is running in Cambridge. There will be a lot of confusion when NDP supporters arrive at the polls. Goodyear has brought in lots of money into the riding from the Candadian Action Plan, evidenced by all of the work done on the roads. As ‘Atlas’ said he is rising star in the Conservative caucus, and that really is all the Cambridge residents want.
    11 03 31 mini phreek
    ‘Canada's Science minister does not believe in evolution.’ am I the only one one who sees something wrong with this? this is not just embarrassing for mr Goodyear, or Harper's Government but for Canada. It's a little depressing to think that even with this coming to light. he will probably still get re-elected.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Although a blue collar riding, the Tories have held this since 2004 and won it provincially thus they would have to mess up big time to lose this. A 25 point gap is a lot to overcome and there is nothing that indicates this would happen. Even if you eliminate vote splitting the Tories still got 48% and considering how firm their vote is I doubt this would do much other than close the gap, but not change the winner.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    The Tories won here (however narrowly) in 2004, and provincially they held on in both 2003 and 2007. Combine that with Goodyear's 25-point lead from last time, and I'm hard-pressed to imagine a situation where the Liberals take the riding. As for the NDP, I think their glory days here are well behind them.
    10 01 06
    The ‘story’ of 2008 in Cambridge, such as it was, is that the given-up-for-dead NDP began to look ‘competitive’ again...at least, by only finishing a few points behind the Grits. Though the superlative frays upon closer examination, as the NDP still under-shared 2004 and even the 1997 Mike Farnan run. And neither Grit nor NDP achieved half the share of Gary Goodyear, creationism and all. It could still be a tempting target, esp. if Jack Layton wants to parlay his kitchen-table populism in a place with party history betwixt Hamilton and London-Fanshawe--but we're still talking about a pole-vaulting long-shot here. At least Goodyear still hasn't been able to cinch the 50% mark...
    09 11 23 seasaw
    For all those people, who think this riding's TCTC, or the Liberals actually have a chance here, check some facts. The Lib. win in '93 was their first in nearly five decades. In the Liberal victories of '93,'97 and'00, PC and Ref/CA votes combined was higher than the Liberal votes. As soon as the two parties merged, the Liberals lost the seat. Another factor helping the Liberals in the '90's was the total collapse of once strong ( in this riding ) of NDP. Now that the NDP is experiencing a resurgence and the right wing parties have merged, the Liberals have no chance of retaking this riding, unless the CPC votes really take a sharp dip, in that case the NDP would have a better chance of winning here.
    09 09 26 Atlas
    This riding in the past was a New Democrat riding but is now a Conservative riding both provincially and federally. Gary Goodyear has survived scandal and still is relatively popular. A rising star in the Conservative caucus can only be a good thing for Cambridge.
    09 09 19 AP
    This one's ranked as ‘Too Close To Call’?!?! Are you kidding me? Gary Goodyear won this one with over 48% of the vote, it was a cake-walk. He won by an EASY 12,000+ vote margin... a combined Liberal and NDP vote would STILL lose against him by almost 2000 votes!
    Add to that the Liberal infighting in this riding over the last few years, there's no way this one should be considered anything but a lock for the Tories.
    09 09 03 pollwerker
    I spoke to former Cambridge MP, Janko Peric a while back. He told me that the riding was pretty much unwinnable against the new Conservative Party unless something altered the fundamentals, like a new rural party entering the race or a 1993 style blowout. Politics in Ontario has been becoming more polarized lately, with the blue parts getting bluer and the red parts getting redder, with the occasional orange blotch.
    09 08 30
    While Goodyear was strong in the last election it was not due to his own personal performance. His win had more to due with Dion's loss. After the last session in the HoC and his blunders it will give the opposition plenty to work with. If the Liberals come out with a strong candidate that exploits Goodyear's mistakes people will move back to the Liberals in this riding. Watch this one folks because Goodyear has alot of explaining to do!
    09 08 29 TENN CAN
    Let's say that Cambridge voted in the 2008 Democratic primary, I would venture to say that Clinton would have beaten Obama in this more or less working class riding, maybe 60 - 40 or more, (as witness Ohio, Pennsylvannia - I digress) ... the point being that Iggy, like Obama during the primary, (fairly or not) is seen as rather an elitist from Harvard and maybe not as reasonant with the 'white working class' voters that drive this riding's politics. So....coupled with national polls, say the Grits make little headway, the Dippers have plateaued and Goodyear is on for a 4th term as the ridings MP.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    The folks in Cambridge certainly have a fighter working for them. He doesn't always pick his spots well, but he'll chew at you like a pit bull. His total continues to grow each year, to where his lead is now almost 13,000. And he was elected for the first time as an opposition member. He's well established now, and will keep his seat.

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