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Cambridge
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:58 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:58 PM 6/26/2004



Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Gary Goodyear
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
John Gots
Independent:
Alex Gryc
Independent:
John Oprea
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Janko Peric
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Gary Price
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Gareth White

Population 2001
populations
119,141
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
77927

Incumbents/Les députés:
Cambridge (100.0%)
Janko Peric

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
20,767 46.64%
13,960 31.35%
5,577 12.53%
3,879 8.71%
OTHERS
343 0.77%

Cambridge
(195/209 polls, 77927/82963 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
20767
13960
3879
5577
OTHER
343



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23/06/04 Former Cam. resident
Email: [hidden]
Quick note to DB. My own feeling was supported by the poll numbers: Cambridge has always been more reform conservative than PC conservative, the merger is NOT going to hurt Goodyear in way manner, it will help him if anything.
22/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Gary Goodyear is having one in Cambridge where they love Ontario Tory Gerry Martiniuk and Reformer-Alliancer Reg Petersen but the funny thing is this riding is home to the death of the federal Reform movement with the staging of small c conservative unite the right talks there despite being one of its best friends in the 7 years it stayed in the province. This has always been a riding the Christian Heritage Party has always targeted but, if it can't be won by the socially conservative less Reform Party, how can it be won by the CHP and look for the fringe vote to go even further with Direct Access Democracy Alliance leader John Oprea taking the plunge here. Word on the street was that Janko Peric's imitation of Howard Dean with his hissy rant about Choosing His Canada really ticked off a lot of people or at least made the others laugh like his I want to make this city better from sea to sea comment and his constant attacks on Jean Chretien yet praise for Paul Martin doesn't bode well for party faithful.
20/06/04 MB
Email: [hidden]
Two potential predictions 1)NDP squeaker like Mike Farnan for Gary Price or 2)Janko in position with both Gary's neck and neck. There's enough distance from Bob Rae for "attitude" and Price is trusted by the non-partisan. The general public doesn't trust the Liberals and see Janko as having had his turn and Goodyear is just a little too confident like his leader.
20/06/04 DB
Email: [hidden]
The undecided voter is not necessarily the "swing voter". There's nothing unusual for the progressive professional to vacilate between Liberal to NDP depending on the individual candidate or issues. It will take the undecided that views Janko as just another Liberal not to be trusted and Goodyear too much the salesman, to squeak Price in. Unusual for Cambridge's recent PC history, yes, but the CPCers aren't progressive conservatives and that's the rub!!
20/06/04 former Cam. resident
Email: [hidden]
As someone born and raised in Cambridge, and lived there up to six years ago, please allow me to tell you that this riding will be conservative. Frankly, I'm shocked that Janko won 50% last time because he has benefitted tremendously from vote splitting in the past -- in fact every election except 2000. Cambridge is a conservative riding and can be seen by the election of Gerry Martinuik when the province everywhere else was going red. Mat Farnan was able to win this seat for the NDP provincially by a large backing of the portugeese community, but the last time he ran federally he finished dismally. In no way is this a seat the NDP can take on simple voter support alone, it requires a SUPER STRONG candidate, which they don't have, and from person experience I can say that the NDP gets little support in this city. I would be more surprised by a conservative loss in Cambridge than an NDP loss in either of the power couple's ridings. The vote splitting that would have beat Janko in 1993 and 1997, the election of Gerry provincially, the drop in Liberal support provincially, there is just no way Goodyear will lose this riding.
17/06/04 Rob
Email: doctor_sleep@hotmail.com
Well, well, well. The Paul Martin road show has come to Cambridge. When the national media (e.g. the Globe and Mail - June 17) is calling this one a losing Martin riding, it means good things for Gary Goodyear.
16/06/04 B.N.
Email: [hidden]
Cambridge did re-elect PC MPP Gerry Martiniuk in last fall's provincial rout. Furthermore, Reg Petersen polled way ahead of the Alliance in Ontario in 2000, indicating a large pre-existing conservative constituency.
Finally - to anyone who predicted an NDP victory - give it up, it's not going to happen. This isn't Trinity-Spadina or Windsor. If the NDP are lucky, with Price's council experience they might crack 20%, though I even doubt that. Sure Pam Wolf got 18% here provincially, but they also got 19% in the 1999 provincial election, and, 8% federally in 2000. They just aren't as strong federally here. If anything, increased NDP support will take away Liberal votes, only further ensuring a Goodyear victory... but they won't be able to get enough to actually win.
15/06/04 DB
Email: [hidden]
All I can say is that in the Hespeler section of Cambridge the anti-Conservative pro-Liberal vote of the past is a non-issue. Neighbours that know Gary Price and are sick of provincial Liberal flip flops therefore looking at both Gary's. The stumbling block for Goodyear is that he's too confident which is not always appealing. Red Conservatives consider Goodyear too slick and might just look at the municipal guy in the New Democratic Party guy, Price.
12/06/04 CB
Email: [hidden]
Similar in one sense to the provincials Rob, Cambridge-ites are determined to make a change acknowledging their decision at the ballot box rather than the "drama" of hundreds of visuals i.e. lawn signs.
The latest All Candidates didn't propel any one candidate ahead, but folks were polite though reasonably annoyed with slick Conservative Goodyear bemoaning his rough life, this, in a room filled with mostly women that have beared the brunt of Conservative cut backs, lack of government support for childcare/a living wage/social housing as well serious health issues due like breast cancer thanks to industrial pollution for profit Conservatism. Dear God, let's not forget the obscenity of dismantling special education now McGuinty Liberal territory and Janko is forced to sit on Dalton's coatails not only Martin.
When Blue and Red proclaim "pro-life" it's silly, cruel, even absurd like the "Monty Python" skit with Reg Peterson literally taking government money (tax payers monies) for his private enterprising "care" facility then making himself wealthy on OUR money to dictate tax cuts as cure for what, his never ending greed?
Janko appeared tired of politics, even his own rhetoric; the NDP candidate in Gary Price still stands more the good natured gentleman which appeals to gentlewomen.
09/06/04 Rob
Email: [hidden]
Goodyear is hands down winning the sign war. Peric was spotted putting up his own lawn signs which means that his campaign team is in tatters. The Green Party has just as many signs as the Liberals and the NDP which is pretty interesting. I would think that Gary Goodyear is winning by a 10-1 margin on having signs on private lawns. I talked to a person on their campaign team and they said that they were well on their way on achieving their target of 2000 lawn signs on private property.
As a riding that had always advocated conservative unity, it seems that the best of the old PC and CA associations have combined into a seemless campaign. The friends have really come together and are expecting big results.
07/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Perhaps spiked a little by the 70s Max Saltsman NDP legacy, Cambridge is, with Oshawa (and now with its own fortuitous auto-based economy, thanks to Honda), Ontario's prime crucible for the "Reagan Democrat" phenomenon, of a blue-collar demo capable of dramatic 90s-style swings from NDP to ReformaTory. Because of this, the "natural" Liberal base is residual at best--although that becomes less clear as Cambridge grows more generic with population growth; after all, Janko Peric somehow managed to add another 10 points to his usual sluggish mandate in 2000. However, the provincial Tories held on in 2003, thanks in part to the strong NDP machine/weak Liberal machine vote split. And if any party's damaged by the 905ish nature of Cambridge's growth, it's the NDP, although they continue to stake their own claim through the continued momentum of the past; but this isn't really a "Layton" sort of riding. In fact, Gary Price is somewhat in the Mike Farnan "NDP cultura! l traditionalist" mode--almost as indigenous to Cambridge as its sort-of-mirror, Red Toryism, is to Kingston. (And like Red Toryism, political trending over the last generation has left it somewhat orphaned and misunderstood.) But judging by polls at the present, as well as decades of actual voting patterns, it's Gary Goodyear who's more likely to apply his winged foot to Janko's backside...
02/06/04 DTC
Email: [hidden]
This seems to be a race between Peric and Goodyear. After watching the All Candidates Debate I felt bad for Gary Price. He didn't come off too well. It was obvious he wasn't comfortable in a public speaking environment. Goodyear was the most natural speaker of the bunch. His message was consistent and he got it across with ease. Whether people buy into it is another matter. Peric was solid and had some supporters there, but I wasn't overly impressed. I think this riding will go to whoever ends up taking the election. It will be close.
01/06/04 Mull Mole
Email: [hidden]
Checked out the Cambridge Times Q & A on Goodyear including pat answers and smug expression like any novice.
Add in Janko's rating as the lowest of all Liberals looking for re-election and bingo - Cambridge will bring in at least one of the New Democrats for Southern Ontario besides the much anticipated Brian Masse and Joe Comartin in Windsor.
24/05/04 As typed in
Email: [hidden]
In the previous campaign, Peric beat a "well-known local businessman" and some other good candidates not because of vote-splitting (which didnt play into this race) but because he is very visible in the riding (just look at the papers and local TV, constituents know the guy by name). Say what you want about the right-wing vote splitting or not coming out last time, the people in Cambridge dont care for Harper's massive bribe (i.e. his tax cut proposal).
19/05/04 James Bow
Email: [hidden]
The only three-way race in Waterloo Region, although the NDP will probably not get more than 22% here. Expect this one to go down to the wire.
08/05/04 Mate
Email: [hidden]
In response to CB:
Are you saying that "family values" religious people should shy away and vote for an NDP candidate who is a practicing Catholic? Why would they do that when all they have to do is make a voting pit stop for their current MP?
05/05/04 Mull Mole
Email: [hidden]
The Region of Waterloo is becoming a political hot spot with community, social and religious convergence on the March for Dignity as example. Consider how "little Cambridge" is quite the hang out for the Council of Canadian's Maude Barlow who, let's be honest, can't endorse any political party but the COC platform is basically the NDP platform!!
There's rumblings on "uniting the progressive - left" which is supplementing the NDP as a political party and pulling in the undecided for Gary Price's campaign.
It's interesting how Jack Layton has got a real hook on the middle class professional.
Janko is weak as ever and Goodyear no real political credibility.
05/05/04 To The Max
Email:
While I will disagree with the arguement that Janko is a weak canidate, I do see him losing this one. Liberal votes in the last three elections were inflated because people felt that neither the CA or PC could win, especially in this area in this area where vote spliting was so evident. Cambridge is interesting since even it's central polls give the Conservatives a respectable showing in elections. I don't think I need to talk about the outer areas; Conservative pickup.
04/05/04 CB
Email: [hidden]
Gary Price has a diverse following considering his ten years in municipal politics. The general split between the Red Tory and CPCer has garnered some star "progressive" Conservative interest plus the die-hard NDPers and religious moderate to left who have the utmost respect for this candidate's stamina despite much personal tragedy.
Gary is an NDP "Greenie" as much if not more the "family values" guy as CPCer Goodyear. Price is a practising Roman Catholic, known for being accessible and dedicated to his ward-ites in East Galt.
Peric no doubt has his talent(s)at keeping out of trouble and gay bashing which works to a point, but it grows tiresome when he has nothing else to show for two terms in office but mumbling in the back benches!!
The more left the Liberal the more exhausted with the same old rhetoric therefore likely to support Gary Price this time around.
29/04/04 Mate
Email: [hidden]
First of all, Janko was always a Martin guy - not a Chretien guy. Second of all, and most importantly, Janko has been heavily invovled in issues affecting the automotive sector. Third, last election, Janko ran against another "high profile" local businessman (who ran against him in 1993) and he beat him with a better margin than in 1993.
It will not be easy for Janko Peric - this riding has never been an easy won to win. It is competitive. But seeing that the Conservatives are frozen at 28 or 29%, it is going to take a much stronger Conservative presence in Ontario (along the lines of 35-37%) to even start thinking of this riding as a Conservative safe-bet.
27/04/04 PFR
Email: [hidden]
This riding is going to tory blue. Even the liberals admit that Janko Peric is a weak candiate. After all what has he accomplished during his three terms as a member of parliament. Gary Goodyear is too strong of a candiate to lose to Peric.
26/04/04 Michael Fox
Email: [hidden]
I was born and grew up in the riding. I once heard the current Liberal MP say in a public debate - "I want to make this city better from sea to sea".
The guy has problems and I'm not sure how he got nominated as a candidate, much less elected. He's invisible in the house of commons and he's also a Chretien guy, which could cost him. Last time around there were weak candidates running against him and an organization on the ground that had given up after losing via vote splitting in '93 and '97. That won't happen this time.
28/03/04 J Horneck
Email: [hidden]
Cambridge was supposed to have been going Conservative last time around as well but it didn't happen. The Conservatives added to the Alliance totals from 2000 still do not add up to a win here. I'm unconvinced that this riding will fall however it will be closer.
28/03/04 Mike M.
Email: principled.conservative@sympatico.ca
This riding is an interesting one, considering how 20% of the vote went NDP back in 97 with Mike Farnan and then only 8% in 2000. However pre-93 it was Conservative with the exception of Max Saltsman (NDP) in the 70s. With a stronger NDP party to funnel away votes from the Liberals, and a good, Respected Conservative candidate (Dr. Gary Goodyear) I think that the Conservatives have an excellent chance to win this riding back.
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Looking at results way back to 1867, you will find Liberals, and New Democrats elected in this area, but the clear majority of the time, you will find Conservatives winning. The combined PC-CA vote was close enough here, in my opinion, to, when combined with history, predict a Conservative win.
24/03/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Here's an interesting riding to watch. Prior to 1993, the Progressive Conservatives won this riding many times with the NDP coming in second. The winner of this riding always took around 20,000 - 23,000 votes. In 1993, this was taken by the Liberal sweep with 22,000 votes. The combined Reform and PC vote would have totalled over 29,000 votes. It was a vote-splitting riding again in 1997 with about 2,500 (combined) votes more than the Liberals but not again in the 2000 election. Since the Liberals' votes are consistant here, I'm willing to believe in 2000 it was from a low voter turnout that the vote didn't split, all because the Liberals were doomed to win regardless. And now with stronger NDP support nationally (which shreds away Liberal votes), the Liberal candidate has his work cut out for him. This was also a riding the Ontario PC's held onto in the past election. Therefore, this is one of suburban Ontario ridings the Conservatives should win.


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