Prediction Changed
1:30 PM 13/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Cambridge
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Gary Goodyear

2006 Result:
Gary Goodyear **
25337
Janko Peric
19419
Donna Reid
9794
Gareth White
3017
David M. Pelly
217

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 04 10 Stevo
76.64.103.40
Interesting how T.V. (whose predictions appear to signal a massive Liberal majority; in fact I'm surprised he/she hasn't called Crowfoot for the Liberals yet) says that riding association problems for the Liberal candidate in Cambridge won't be a big deal, yet riding association problems for the Conservative candidate in Guelph are clearly fatal and insurmountable. This Zeistra character is an ‘energetic campaigner’ you say? Well, gee, that will DEFINITELY convince this riding's largely blue-collar and/or middle-class constituents to vote for an Ivory Tower sociology professor Liberal leader over a middle-class Conservative Prime Minister! Not gonna happen.
08 04 09 Buy me a tater
192.30.202.18
The provincial Liberals have been unable to win this seat in the last two general elections even though voters in Cambridge knew that Dalton McGuinty and his party were going to form a majority government. The Conservatives won this seat federally in 2006 even though they were not the party in power at the time. Cambridge is developing into a Conservative stronghold in this part of Ontario and I can't see any change when voters go to the polls sometime in the future.
08 03 30 R.O.
209.91.149.54
Well the Cambridge riding was home to a liberal mp for a few years when Janko Peric held it. But it actually hasn?t voted liberal since 2000 as it has had a pc mpp during this time as well. It avoided both Ontario liberal majorities and stayed pc. But it still is a competitive riding federally and a 3 way race exists here to an extent. But Gary Goodyear has been mp for a few years now and with former mp out of the race I feel he can hold this seat. Mean I don?t see how the new liberal candidate could do better than a longtime mp did when he ran last election as the liberals numbers have not really improved in the ridings outside of major cities.
08 03 13 T.V.
72.141.29.195
Gord Zeilstra is an extremely energetic and well-funded campaigner, and the problems within the riding association will likely be long forgotten by election time. It's not a lock for either party by any stretch, especially with the parties roughly locked into the same places in the polls as they were last election. I'm willing to bet that Janko Peric was less effective at attracting voters to the Liberals on his second unsuccessful run than Zeilstra will be. With a good campaign, nationally and locally, the Liberals would take it.
08 02 22 JLP
99.237.8.40
Conservative incumbent and Liberal contender are both embroiled in campaign irregularities. The NDP is reaching back to the past, sort of. Their candidate is Max Lombardi (coincidental in name to the only NDP MP ever elected out here, Max Saltsman in the 1960's and 1970's). Max Lombardi is a father of triplets and is getting some pretty good press out here. I pick the NDP to win in a squeaker over the Conservatives.
07 04 08 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Though as Cambridge suburbanizes, the NDP's periscope may be going down; consider that in '06 (admittedly with a weak candidate), they did worse here than in just about any riding save Kitchener-Conestoga telescoping from here into Windsor (and that even includes throwaways like Oxford and LKM). And just think, this used to be what passed for a NDP stronghold, even federally back in Max Saltsman days. Also consider that while Gary Goodyear may be sitting on a 10-point margin, the E-day result was a lot more sober than the practically Albertan margin and tally some mid-election burger'n'barber polls were suggesting. Maybe this time Goodyear will get a 50% blimp of a mandate--but from previous patterns, don't count on it, at least not definitely (except in advance polls).
07 04 02 Angry Ontarian
24.36.172.204
Gary Goodyear won an urban Ontario riding in 2004, which says it all. Cambridge even remained PC provincially during the 2003 McGuinty Liberal landslide. The NDP tugs away too many Liberal votes for them to win here anymore. CPC hold.



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