Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Baetz, Elaine

Brierley, Alyssa

Laird, David

Mayberry, Graham Reid

Wallace, Mike

Mike Wallace

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • burlington (220/223 Polls)
  • halton (4/212 Polls)
  • ancaster-dundas-flamborough-aldershot (30/196 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 24 jeff316
    The Greens don't have to have a strong local campaign to increase their vote here. Large suburban ridings like Burlington make it difficult for elections to be about the connection local candidates have with the individuals that comprise the electorate - hence why the current mayor came in fourth and couldn't even best the NDP in a very small 'c' conservative riding. Burlington and other similar ridings tend to match national/provincial trends and party leaders. Other than Cam, personalities and connections don't matter much - few really vote for Mike or Joyce or voted for Patty. Organizationally the Greens may or may not be withering, but their vote will hold. Burlington may be one of the few ridings where the Greens increase their vote against a national-level decline.
    11 04 19 Ian
    Jeff, the Greens are withering, certainly in Burlington. Mayor Goldring ran in 2006, under the previous leader. That is, before Ms May took over. The present candidate was a late recruit replacing the previous designated Green candidate. I believe that the local riding association has been disbanded. I predict that nationally the Green party will lose support and with it their state, taxpayer-supported funding.
    11 04 17 jeff316
    Burlington has always been a pretty conservative place. Wallace will keep the riding, but the ground is changing for the other three parties so the interest in this race is to do with how the Liberals, NDP and Greens will place. The Liberals have given up on winning Burlington provincially and federally (they couldn't knock off Cam Jackson and then couldn't best Joyce Savoline even when running a popular city councillor.) One of the interesting things in Burlington is the strong increase in the NDP vote since 1993 - 3 %; 5%; 12%; 11% - while Burlingtonians just elected a former Green Party candidate for mayor.
    11 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Demographics are working against the Liberals in Burlington. Though anti-CPC vote is definitly crystalizing around the Grits, it would not be enough for the Liberals to take this one. They would also need a solid drop in Tory support in Ontario and that is yet to happen.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    As one of the outerlying suburbs of the GTA, unless there is a massive swing to the Liberals, I suspect the Tories should hold this. The question is will it be a narrow win here many a Liberal win nationally or the Tories getting over 50% meaning a Tory majority nationally.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    I'm willing to call this one for the Tories. Wallace won by a comfortable 15 points last time, just short of an overall majority. Furthermore, his Liberal opponent is a neophyte who has barely five weeks to prepare for the election. Obviously the Liberals feel they have more pressing targets.
    11 03 28 A Drummond
    Wow... the Liberals nominated Alyssa Brierley for this riding. Among the qualities listed on the party and her personal websites is that she's lived abroad. Don't think they're trying that hard to pick up this seat.
    11 03 23 Ian
    Mr. Bowser, the former Liberal candidate has dropped from sight, at least from the party's website. The local Liberal Association hasn't even scheduled a nomination meeting. Barring local Conservative apathy or over-confidence, Mike Wallace will be re-elected. He has worked hard.
    10 01 24 Kyle H
    If there is one thing Burlington is, its a business-focused city. While there is Crossroads and Indigo and all that, the city is a Mecca for those involved in the business world. Its perfect for those that want a nice suburban home that work in Toronto, Kitchener or Hamilton, because its clean, quiet, and has access to three major highways.
    Anyways, the Liberals now have a business candidate named Bruce Bowser who will fit in well. Its better than Paddy, who, as most say, survived because of the split, and also because of her name recognition (her family is a almost household in Burlington). Bowser has connections with the business community, the Chamber of Commerce, City Hall (good friends with Cam Jackson), and is respected among the business community. He'll do better than Paddy.
    However, he might not win it, but it will be close.
    09 12 19 A.S.
    For the umpteenth time, Crossroads media empire or not, don't make a mountain out of the ‘family values’ molehill; Burlington is more the classic affluent *Progressive* Conservative realm that parked itself with Paddy Torsney as long as the federal PCs were moribund and their Harperite successors were deemed too Reform-ish. And now that it's settled back into the blue fold and Torsney is out of the picture, things look nice and comfy--even if the city which gave us A Different Drummer as well as the first Chapters and Indigo locations *ought* to be swarming with well-lettered Ignatieffistas...
    09 09 27 Ian
    Of course Paddy will run again. She has no other career. But her support is ebbing away. The local, weekly newspaper used to run her photo often. Whenever the Liberal leader visited Burlington, she could be seen grinning in the background. Not any more. When Ignatieff visited recently, it was Gerard Kennedy that was shown in the photos.
    Editor: Paddy Torsney is not among the candidates seeking election in this riding.
    09 09 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Kyle's right about one thing: the CPC gains in '08 were negligible and the drop in Liberal support due to Grit voters staying home. Though with Iggy at the helm and assuming Paddy-T runs again we suspect a much closer race (maybe even within 1000 votes, though that's optimistic). None the less with the Torys on top, they will stay on top in this riding.
    09 09 17 R.O.
    The fact the conservative party has won over such suburban if not even urban ridings shows it has evolved a lot since its creation in 2004. Mike Wallace well not that high profile of an mp is likely to hold this one. i'm not really sure what kind of run Paddy Torsney will make here if she runs again which is likely but she is experienced at running in the riding if nothing else. although so is Mike Wallace and the next election be his fourth as conservative candidate for Burlington. the halton area i feel generally leans more conservative politically than some other areas of the gta like peel region so that helps him out. and when looking at past results the conservative vote has held steady here from 06 to 08 yet the liberal vote has been deteriorating since the high reached in the 2004 election and liberals lost alot of ground here last election even though they ran a well known former mp.
    09 09 11 Stevo
    Burlington - the city where the Common Sense Revolution never truly left - will not go red under anything short of a Liberal majority. Since that won't happen in the next election, this prediction is fairly easy. Right-leaning middle-class city with a touch of religiosity and family-values types thrown in, Burlington is a natural stronghold for the CPC.
    09 09 09 Kyle
    Paddy Torsney will win this riding back - a new national leader, a new local riding strategy and Wallace's own lack of visibility on almost any issue will see the Liberals win this riding back.
    And in response to the commenter before me; Wallace was able to hold his vote, possibly gaining maybe 600 more, but he didn't increase it - the Liberal vote simply did not come out. When it comes out this time, you better be wary of the consequences.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Wallace grew his vote despite lower tunout, going from a lead of 2,500 to a lead of 9,000. He'll hold this seat again next time out.

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