Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:35 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:35 PM 6/26/2004

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David Laird
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Angela Reid
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Paddy Torsney
Mike Wallace
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
John Herman Wubs

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Burlington (86.4%)
Paddy Torsney
Halton (1.1%)
Julian Reed
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot (12.5%)
John Bryden

2000 Result/Résultats:
24,732 46.12%
13,259 24.73%
12,732 23.74%
2,123 3.96%
775 1.45%

(220/223 polls, 76773/77382 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(4/212 polls, 957/98898 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(30/196 polls, 11100/74416 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Authorized by the Official Agent for David Laird
23/06/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Indeed, Burlington is the safest pure-suburban Tory seat in Ontario (both provincially and federally), even more so than wealthy Oakville next door(thanks to Ford). I noticed a lot of Paddy Torsney praising in here and agree she is rather popular...among hardcore Burlington Liberals. Like Bonnie Brown in Oakville, Ms. Torsney has been stuck on the backbench the last 11 years and never speaks in Parliament. She is invisable in the community and residents here agree, she has done nothing for Burlington.
23/06/04 P.B.E.
Email: [hidden]
While I think the general opinion expressed - that disaffection with liberals provincial and federal as well as unified voting on the right -will hold up to push the riding to the Conservatives, I'm not going to be surprised at any result between a narrow win by Paddy or the predicted "cakewalk" for Mike. Certainly Harper was true to election form in the debate and was not provoked into ripping the sheepskin from his back but it wasn't a strong performance either and I think it was apparent to many Canadians that the costume was rather threadbare - evidently that has become clear in the days since the debate, anyway. The perceptions that both candidates are lightweights are widespread but there's usually a grudging acknowledgement of Paddy's constituency work and general competence while Mike's detractors can be pretty vociferous. It's just not in the bag yet. Incumbents are tough and Martin has showed some resilience, too.
22/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Mike Wallace owns Burlington, CTS/100HSt/FundaEvangels guard the lock and Paddy Torsney knows it because Reform-A-Tory John Bryden was offered Burlington and turned it down because he knew who was behind Mike but, like any Principled Conservative, John has been offered his old riding or this one if the worst does happen on E-Day so don't think it is over until the Sheila Copps sings. Same Sex Marriage is the number one issue in the riding, with many other socially moralist issues that traditional value conservatives tend to win with up there as well yet nobody has questioned where the PCPC friendly Wallace stands on all of them and, in a riding where a former Family Coalition leader ran very well as a CRCA candidate in 2000, the Tories don't want people asking or else it may prove Mike has less integrity on the hot issues than Ontario PC MPP Cam Jackson on the expense receipts. Believing in Belinda Stronach to the point you are introducing her as the next Prime Minister, well let's just say it can damage a person's political career before it has even started a la Magna Budget avec Ernie Eves, just ask Patrick Brown.
21/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
While this election is close I refuse to forecast a Paddy loss. She is by far the better candidate and the number of undecided voters (which according to both Wallace and Torsney internal polls is staggeringly high) favours well for the Liberals. Undecideds typically go with the moderate party and with the incumbent. Since Paddy represents both she's going to win the race, but by no more than 500 votes, that's my prediction.
Having said that, if this were a race between candidates and not parties then Paddy would handidly win as she's the real deal (for lack of a better cliche) and Wallace, while an "accomplished" city politician, oozes of politician and wears the mask of sleazy city councillor with him as his jokes, inability to make a clear stand on any issue and bad judgement categorize him as a weak candidate. Definately no match as a person in a fight against Paddy!
Email: [hidden]
It's not very scientific, to be sure, but Lick's restaurant on Fairview St. has been posting results of an ongoing election poll by customers. So far, the Conservatives are at something like 40%, Liberals 29%. Other parties at 10%. Sorry, I forgot the NDP number, but it was between the Others, and the Liberals.
17/06/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
An affluent riding that is pre-disposed to vote for the right (as it did in 2003 and should have done in 2000), Burlington is GOING to elect a Conservative on June 28th... you can bank on it.
Never mind Wallace's 'awesome' responsibility as Belinda's sock puppet at the convention; Let's chat about how Dalton McGuinty introduced a budget that has become the political equivalent of kryptonite for federal Liberal candidates in Ontario, and about Stephen Harper's success in the english language debate.
I don't believe that Wallace needed either to win this riding, but since he got both, expect a strong majority of Burlingtonians to vote for him.
15/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
this is one of those ridings where the combined Tory-Reform numbers equalled the Libs last time, and it is both more Conseravtive and more Liberal than the province, thanks to a relatively weak NDP. So what happens this time? Jack Layton picks up 10 per cent, (his strength in this riding being approx half what it is province wide). Most of this comes from the Libs, allowing the CPC to waltz in, despite losing a few red Tories to the others. CPC 42 Libs 39 NDP 10 Green 6 it says here.
08/06/04 Mike M.
Email: principled.conservative@sympatico.ca
Being a former PC board member when my riding still held Aldershot, I noticed there was not really much of a red tory presence in that part of the riding. In fact many were quite excited when the two parties merged. Federally, Aldershot was one of our strongest areas and i don't see this trend changing any time soon. the combined vote in the Aldershot polls were upwards of 70%+ and if this trend is to continue then Mike Wallace will have a cakewalk to parliament hill.
Email: [hidden]
Those who say that former pc voters in this riding will not vote for the new conservative party because of its Reform-Alliance component are ignoring a simple fact. First, Mike Wallace hails from the pc segment of the new party. Everyone (and their dogs) who voted pc in Burlington in the last election will vote for Mike Wallace (self-interest wins over fears of Harper). What Wallace should worry about is whether those who voted for the Alliance last time will vote for him this time. He may bank on the fact that they will ultimately vote for him because they want to bring Harper in. But he should not take this for granted; he has to know that they will be holding their noses as they do this.
I predict that Wallace will win this riding by several thousand votes simply because of the convergence of conservatives in time for the election. However, as the man who introduced Belinda Stronach as the next prime minister of Canada during the leadership selection, he should start looking for a comfy seat on the backbench.
04/06/04 Andrew
Email: [hidden]
there was someone who predicted a Paddy victory, but not in a landslide like last time. I could not disagree more with that statement. In Paddy Torsney's 3 election victories she has never had a clean victory, by that i mean that if you added up the reform/CA votes and the PC votes they were always more than the Liberals. Now there is an argument that one plus one won't equal two and some voters will switch to the Liberals, and there is some truth to that, but there are also other factors. The biggest factor of these is the formidable force of MPP Cam Jackson's campaign team that have won every election since 1985 but have stayed out of the federal side of things because of the disarray. With that team back together, and a stronger candidate than either of the right wing parties ever put up in this riding I see them picking up votes from the combined total, not losing them. Combine these local factors with the national momentum on the side of the conservatives, and platform issues that speak to this riding (taxes, crime, etc.). It would be a major blow for the Conservatives not to win this riding. After hearing about last nights rally in Burlington, at which there were 1600 people to see Stephen Harper, I have got to predict that this riding will go blue.
01/06/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
There's going to be a lot of upper-middle-class, home-owner, Toronto-Commuter 905ers that are not too happy with their current taxation situation, and that means Conservative votes. With current CPC support levels, or even a bit less, I would expect Burlington to be a clear CPC pick-up.
25/05/04 full
Email: [hidden]
Burlington, along with Aldershot, is poised to go Conservative. Cam Jackson survived, and with no more vote splitting, I don't see how this riding wont go Conservative.
25/05/04 Andrew M.
Email: [hidden]
A Liberal win in Burlington. With the themes of the campaign becoming clearer (Canadian values=Liberal, American taxes=CPC, Environment=NDP), Burlington will choose the same winning personality it has for the past three consecutive elections. While it may not be with the landslide she had last time, her community will take as good care of her as she has for it.
23/05/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
I think that electionprediction is greatly underestimating the Tories in this section of the country!
We're talking about a Tory bastion of strength in the middle of the 905. As well, so many people think that there's still some kind of vote split. Did those people see the last poll in Ontario? (42% Liberal, 39% CONSERVATIVE!) Contrary to what any Liberal would have you believe, there are not waves of PCs flowing to the Liberals. The majority of Tories are prepared to vote the same way they did provincially and then some.
Provincially, this riding is Cam Jackson's. Add to that the McGuinty budget and this is one riding that will show its true Blue colours.
Wallace wins and the Liberals go home crying.
23/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
True, Paddy Torsney is a perky Chretien lapdog running in the Martin era; and in a seat that'd ordinarily be a solid Tory stronghold where even Scam Jackson managed provincial re-election--though barely, and probably out of pure incumbent momentum; if he *hadn't* run, I'll bet the seat would have gone Liberal like Oakville next door. Remember: Burlington's more a PC than Reform/Alliance town; they were virtually even in 2000, when I predicted that blue-collar towns like Oshawa and Cambridge might shift rightward before blue-blood Burlington. So it's now a litmus for all sorts of things related to whether CPC can convince as a successor to the PCs, or whether Martin has the stronger claim, etc. (And relatively speaking, Aldershot doesn't add much; it's "consistent with" the rest of Burlington, more than it bolsters any inherent Toryness.)
19/05/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
The CPC will win here without question. Torsney was a Liberal sacrificial lamb when the vote originally split and has done nothing to distinguish herself as an MP since. If Cam Jackson won here provincially despite a scandal and a Liberal sweep, the current federal candidate, a respected city councillor, simply has to run a solid campaign to nail down the win. The recent provincial Liberal budget is only going to help the Conservatives throughout the 905. I expect Oakville and likely Halton ridings will also go Conservative.
15/05/04 Peter M.
Email: [hidden]
Burlington is, at least for this election, surprisingly enigmatic, making it a more interesting contest than one would normally assume.
Two overestimations are in play in many of the posts below. 1 - Combining the Tory vote with the Alliance vote is not a necessarily applicable. Old PC Tories (of which Burlington has very many) may not necessarily vote for the new Conservatives, seeing them as Reformers in disguise. Lets not forget, the Martin Liberals are now old-style conservative, and will draw many voters of the same ilk who previously supported the old PCs. Burlington may be conservative, but it is conservative in the old sense, not in the neo-con Alliance sense. Whether fair or not, the image of Harper strong, right-wing, disaffected Westerner – moderate on the outside but not on the inside – may still have sway in this riding. 2 - Mike Wallace may be a popular city councillor, but he’s only a popular city councillor in one area. With only the Burlington Post to cover it, Burlington is not a city where municipal politics has much of a media draw or public interest past retirees and the self-interested. Mayor MacIsaac running might have had such a result, but Wallace’s effect is overestimated.
Torsney is a slick, well-oiled, energetic and incumbent flake, while Wallace is a folksy, more homely flake. The NDP candidate ran provincially in October, doubling their 1999 provincial results, however he is an unknown and the New Democratic constituency in this riding, while growing, is tiny. The Greens embarrassed themselves by running a very poor provincial candidate in October, however, they’ll still draw decently from disaffected Liberals unwilling to vote NDP or Conservative, and from an ill-informed, protest-vote.
Prediction: a narrow Conservative win. Combine the sponsorship scandal, some Conservative momentum, Martin's ever-present indecisiveness, an improved NDP vote, and you have Wallace victorious. Torsney may be better presented, and a probably a better debater, yet voters in this riding will cast not based on candidates, but leaders and parties. This will be most likely one of those ridings that votes Conservative until the Conservatives actually win an election. And then, in seeing that Harper is no Bill Davis and that the federal Conservatives are more extreme than their historical counterparts, will swing back to the now old-style conservative Liberals.
07/05/04 Stevo
Email: [hidden]
Conservatives in a walk. Burlington is the most conservative riding in the 905 belt. It's a safe Tory seat provincially and will return to the federal Tory fold in the upcoming federal election. The addition of Aldershot will only strengthen the Tory victory here.
06/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
Another close riding here, and I am glad the webmaster put it in the too close to call column. However I still have made my decision here, and I predict a Liberal win- by less than 5% probably lower. Burlington is in the infamous Conservative 905 area, and the conservative support is huge. However, so is the Liberals. The combined vote of the tories here was only 1 or 2 percenatage points ahead of the Liberals. In my opinion this is a loss, due to the fact the tories are polling much much lower than the combined vote in 2000. Much much lower than the Liberals have moved down.
05/05/04 To The Max
Gaining Aldershot can only solidify the hold the Conservatives have on this riding; remember that Tom Jackson won this provincially despite a scandle.
Burlington also holds a massive number of upper-class houses, especially in the south-western portion of the riding and we all know how they usually vote...
Prediction: Con: 48%, Lib: 38%, NDP: 10%, other:2%
Email: [hidden]
I think that this riding will become a safe conservative seat. Before the vote splitting on the right, Burlington was always one of the safest conservative ridings in the country and in the province. Now that conservative Aldershot is added through redistribution and the splitting is over, this will turn dark blue. If the new Conservatives cannot take this seat, they will win only a handful in Ontario. (Note: this is what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to happen.)
21/04/04 LH
Email: [hidden]
Most citizens know that Paddy Torsney is a serious and hard working representative of the people of Burlington. Many citizens also know that Mike Wallace is often less than serious and has a tendancy to contribute laughter more than sound and well thought out input on many issues.
19/04/04 Michael Fox
Email: [hidden]
I live in this riding and I'm really surprised to see a Liberal prediction holding up. There are several reasons why this prediction should be Conservative, or at least up in the air:
1) The very Conservative area of Aldershot has been redistributed and added to this riding.
2) The combined CA/PC vote in 2000 was 48.5% vs. 46.1% for the Liberals.
3) Liberal support is down in Ontario and Paddy Torsney is NOT popular here in Burlington. Also, as a Chretien supporter, she may get less support from the Martinites in an election.
4)The NDP are doing better in Ontario and will likely poll better than 4% this time around.
5) Mike Wallace is more popular than either of the CA/PC candidates from 2000. He will also attract new votes in his own Ward as City Councilor that may not traditionally vote Conservative. 4 out of 6 City Councilors as well as the Chair of Halton Region are supporting the Mike Wallace team.
6) This same riding elected PC candidate Cam Jackson in the last provincial election, against a riding provincial Liberal tide.
19/04/04 FA
Email: [hidden]
A Liberal victory in Burlington is very likely. Mike Wallace has shown himself to be a joker on council and an opportunist in politics. Paddy Torsney has distinguished herself. When you compare her education, her work experience, her intellect and her maturity to those of her challenger, Mike Wallace comes up short in stature. He's just not up to the job.
15/04/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
I'd have to put this riding in too close to call column. The Liberals going down in the polls, a 10 year city cousellor for the running for the conservatives makes this an interesting race. On the other hand, there has been a very high liberal vote past elections (higher than the provincial Lib vote) with an incumbant candidate. I think there is no way to call it yet for either party yet....
11/04/04 TT
Email: [hidden]
Conservativs will win the seats they won provincially. If Jackson can win it provincially, well the Conservatives can win it federally. The current prediction is off base. Especially, when the site has predicted some Mississauga and Brampton seats as "too close" to call. Those seats saw the Conservatives demolished provincially and federally.
09/04/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
If Burlington is willing to elect Cam "Scam" Jackson as their provincial MPP, I can't see them electing anything but a Tory MP now that vote splitting is no longer an issue. Burlington is about as conservative as an suburban 905 riding can get.
05/04/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Guess who was in town last night? After touring staunchy Tory Simcoe County, Paul Martin dropped by in Burlington, campaign style. I presume he would only be making pitstops in areas where his Liberal MPs are in trouble. And along this lakeside Tory belt (Burlington-Oakville-Mississauga South) there seems to be that: trouble. Not surprising considering Burlington's voting history. It seems to be the least safe of the Halton seats for the Liberals...
Ms. Torsney in all her elections has only been able to get the 22,000 vote range. Meanwhile, in 1993, the PC-Reform vote was 2,500 more than her's. In 1997 it was 1,000 more and 700 more in 2000 (but with a lower voter turnout). Now the riding is being re-drawn to include a Conservative area in the north end. Not a good sign for the Liberals here.
25/03/04 Matt F.
Email: b2spirit2000ca@yahoo.ca
Having known Mike Wallace for a few years and the work he has done for his constituents, there is no doubt that Burlington will return to its traditional conservative roots in the next election. Had it not been for vote-splitting, our riding would have undoubtedly gone conservative years ago. The incumbent MP (Paddy Torsney) sends out literature that goes to no end to either ignore, hide or 'dress up' the recent situations regarding scandals, corruption and general government mismanagement. With a united opposition to the Liberals, combined with an enthusiastic group of organizers and party members (more than 700 out of a total of just over 1000 local members in the riding turned out for the candidate nomination meeting), Mr. Wallace will have no shortage of support but all the conditions necessary to make this riding blue again.
23/03/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives will win this riding. Look at the facts. Burlington is such a conservative town they even re-elected the embattled former Ontario Minister of Tourism, Cam "Scam" Jackson in the recent provincial election. Tory Gain!!
20/03/04 Adam B.
Email: polski_69@hotmail.com
Mike Wallace has been a fantastic and popular member of council here for a long time. He is also a soild guy, with a lot of support from Burlington's middle class. I live in his ward, and I know everyone is in support of him, regardless of party brand. However, in a riding like Burlington which was affected by the vote-splitting phenomenon, I think its safe to say that we can tally up this one for big blue as well. Just to add - Paddy Torsney has done nothing for Burlington, in terms of any community contribution at all. I think with a lot of voters this will be a very important factor, as well as a determinant at the polls. This riding will indeed go blue.
20/03/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Paddy Torsney, herself, is worried she could lose her seat. An Ontario Liberal caucus meeting audio tape was recently leaked and the Toronto Sun was able to obtain a copy. It depicted several MP's in a panic over the sponsership scandal, worried about an election. Burlington's MP was one of them. Here's what SUN Media reported her saying:
Burlington MP Paddy Torsney urged Grits to shut down talk on the sponsorship scandal and "get on with governing so that people have something else to talk about."
* Burlington MP Paddy Torsney: "I don't recall anybody saying in national caucus last week that they wanted heads of Crown corporations on a platter. Every day there's another friggin' leak about somebody else. I don't care when the election is, it's going to be hard slugging, but we'll do it. And we'll win it. The challenge is that we'll only win if somebody starts planting messages."
Here's the full article:

20/03/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals and the United Right already have faced off in this riding once, last fall when provincial Tory Cam Jackson comfortably held on to Burlington in the face of a Liberal surge. The federal Liberals won't fare nearly as well here as their provincial cousins, because this time the momentum for "change" cuts clearly against them. Burlington, Halton and possibly Oakville are high probability Tory pick-ups in 2004.
18/03/04 B. M. S.
Email: [hidden]
Burlington and Oakville aren't just 'commuter towns' to Toronto. They are commuter towns for people who work on Bay Street, in particular Oakville, which was once listed as the second wealthiest riding in Canada. And seeing how this riding was Conservative (with former MP Bill Kempling) throughout the Trudeau area, it will be one of the easier suburban ones to regain. Martin was worried he'd lose both these cities too, even before the sponsership scandal. The Globe and Mail reported that he tried to convince Roberta Bondar to run as a parachute candidate in place of Torsney or Bonnie Brown.
18/03/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
Liberal will hold this seat simply because this is not just another right wing zone that voted for the provincial Tories. Burlington and Oakville are emerging as the communiter town for people who works in Toronto. With Martin dragging the Liberals to the right, and Torsney's healthy showing (only couple of points less than the Tories' combined number), this should stay in the Liberal column.
17/03/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Conservative gain. All the Halton Region ridings are the Liberals' to lose because of the wealthy white collar population, vote-splitting and low voter turnout the past two elections. This is a traditional Conservative stronghold.
17/03/04 MP
Email: [hidden]
It is early to make predictions, but Burlington may have the potential to go Conservative. The 2000 Reform-PC vote totalled was marginally higher than Torsney's. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean anything in 2004, but the recent Liberal scandals will resonate in this provincially-PC riding. If city councillor Wallace wins the nomination the party will also have a visible municipally-active candidate to boot. Add in some small-time gains by the NDP, and the Liberal vote could be eroded just enough to let the Conservatives into this Ontario riding.

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