Mise à jour:
4:21 PM 20/01/2006

La prévision a changé
9:24 AM 22/01/2006
Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

Outremont
2006 - élection générale (Canada)



Profil de circonscription

candidats:
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)

Député:
Independent
Eric Roach Denis
Conservative/conservateur
Daniel Fournier
Independent
Yan Lacombe
Libearl/libéral
Jean-C. Lapierre
NDP/NPD
Léo-Paul Lauzon
Bloc Québécois
Jacques Léonard
Independent
Régent Millette
Progressive Canadian
Philip Paynter
Green/Vert
François Pilon
Independent
Xavier Rochon
Marxist-Leninist
Linda Sullivan
L'Hon. Jean Lapierre

2004 Résultats:
Jean Lapierre
15675
François Rebello
12730
Omar Aktouf
5382
Marc Rousseau
2284
Shaun Perceval-Maxwell
1643
Yan Lacombe
452
Linda Sullivan
120

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision




Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage

18 01 06
What an exceptionally interesting riding! Anything can happen. Among the center-left electorate, a large portion the BQ's vote is being taken by the NDP and the Greens, whereas among the electorate on the right a portion of the Liberal vote is being taken by the Conservatives. The most recent riding poll shows the Liberal Lapierre at 30%, BQ's Léonard at 27%, NDP's Lauzon at 20%, the Green's Pilon at 12% and the Conservative Fournier at 11%. Therefore, it is still mostly a hot race between the Liberal and BQ parties, but with each of those two parties standing at a lower level than last time, with other parties close behind them. The question becomes which of the Liberal or BQ will best be able to stop the erosion of its electoral base. Like in other ridings, the voters on the right will likely fall in line behind the Liberal or the Conservative candidate, depending which one is best positioned in the days before the election. In Outremont, being a Montreal area riding and given the large lead of the Liberal over the Conservative, this means a likely win for the Liberal Lapierre. However a BQ win is not excluded, if the Liberals can't keep enough of their vote from going to the Conservatives.
18 01 06 01/02/2003
A local poll by CROP-La Presse shows Jean Lapierre ahead with 26 % of the vote, and the Bloc close behind with 24 %. The NDP gets 17 %, the Greens get 11 % and the CPC is fifth with 9 %. While at first glance the high number of immigrants, allophones and Jewish voters in particular should give Lapierre an easy win by 2006 Liberal Quebec standards, rumour is Lapierre actually wants to lose his riding as he has no interest whatsoever in being in opposition (especially if Paul Martin quits as Liberal leader), but I suspect he will win anyway and we will have a by-election shortly thereafter.
17 01 06 Aric H
A CROP poll published this week by La Presse for this riding shows that the Liberals have 30%, the Bloc has 27%, and the NDP has 20%. While this is a good showing for the NDP, they probably won't move up to 1st place. The poll does show that the riding is indeed close between the Liberals and the Bloc. There is a margin of error to the poll, so who knows for sure which of the two parties will come out on top on January 23rd.
17 01 06 JFB
Encore une fois, lutte très serrée... mais il faut bien prédire un vainqueur... Sondage CROP-La Presse du 17 janvier 2006 pour le comté d'Outremont: Libéral 26%, Bloc 24%, NPD 17%, Verts 11%, Conservateur 9%. En 2004, Aktouf (NPD) était à 25% des voix une semaine avant le vote, puis il y a eu polarisation du vote entre les Libéraux et le Bloc, chaque électeur votant pour l'un ou pour l'autre, dans la peur que l'adversaire l'emporte. Un tel phénomène se reproduira-t-il? Je crois bien que oui! Alors où iront les votes flottants? Si je dois faire une prédiction, je dirai que le Bloc l'emportera de peu, Lauzon ayant sans doute capté le vote d'intellectuels de gauche sensibles au Bloc.
16 01 06 Victor A.
The Crop-La Presse poll on the riding of Outremont was released one day before polls in 7 other Quebec ridings will be released. Jean Lapierre ( Liberal )is in the lead with 30 %, BQ candidate has 27 % support, NDP with Leo-Paul Lauzon has 20 % ( it should be the best NDP result in Quebec again this year ) and the Conservative Party has 11 % of suport ( that's up from 6 % in the last election ). It looks like the Liberals will be able to hang onto this one.The margin of error is 6 %, 19 times out of 20, so if BQ will be able to get our their vote they might still be able to pull a surprise win. The poll was conducted on 300 residents between January 11th and 14th.
16 01 06 El Suavé
Latest poll on this riding (found in JAN 16 edition of La Presse):
30% LaPierre
27% Léonard
20% Lauzon
Statistically, we have a close 3-way race here. LaPierre has a downward momentum, while Lauzon has an upward momentum. I predict Lauzon with a surprise victory as undecided voters will park with him. Keep your eye on this one folks!
16 01 06 Stéphane Gaudet
Le sondage CROP de ce matin dans La Presse donne 30% à Monsieur Lapierre contre 27% à Monsieur Léonard du Bloc et 20% au professeur Lauzon du NPD. Je pense malgré tout que le Parti libéral va conserver le siège grâce à son organisation redoutable sur le terrain et son enracinement dans la circonscription (qui n'a été qu'une seule fois infidèle aux libéraux (en 1988) depuis la Confédération), mais ce sera très serré.
15 01 06 El Suavé
true. considering the latest Lib numbers, and the momentum from the Lauzon camapign in the riding, I am fairly sure that there is no chance that LaPierre will win here. the lib vote is clearly in decline, whilst the NDP are stepping up their campaign here. I say: LaPierre is a goner no matter what, the Bloc and NDP are fighting for this one. Just look at the signage: the NDP are surely in the lead here, whilst the Liberals (arrogant as usual: are not even competing). NDP-Bloc race, only to be decided election night. the Bloc should take Lauzon more seriously.
14 01 06 Andrew
If the NDP are to make a historic victory in Quebec, it will be in Outremont. Leo-Paul Lauzon is an excellant candidate, able to connect with Montreal voters. In order to win, Lauzon must take much of the leftist vote away from the Bloc, something not entirely impossible. Before dismissing me as crazy, look at the respect Lauzon holds here. If the right combination of factors come into play, the NDP will finally win a Quebec riding in a general election.
13 01 06
But throughout the riding, the NPD campaign has been more visible and energetic than anyone else's.
A couple of weeks ago I thought that LaPierre would be able to pull it off for the Liberals, with a close Bloc second and a respectable Lauzon 3rd place finish. But with the Liberal campaign utterly failing to hit gear nationally or here in Quebec, with the Bloc vote stalled in the low 40% range instead of the 50% it looked like earlier, with a resurgent Conservative party draining votes in the province from both the Liberals and the Bloc (while not terribly strong in Montreal, the Conservative in Outremont has turned out to be surprisingly more visible and more attractive than predicted)... I actually have come to believe that on election night we'll be seeing the first NPD general election win ever in Quebec.. About time, isn't it?
12 01 06 Bear and Ape
The Italians, Greeks and Jews may be getting older, but they are not dead yet, meaning they still can and will vote. Fear of the seperatists WILL ensure that these groups get out to vote regardless of the weather, and a fleet of Liberal volunteers and their vehicals will be there to do it. Anyone who thinks that Parizeau's ethnic comments from years ago have been forgotten really does not understand any of these ethnic groups (read: very, very long memories). These groups (particularly baby boomers and older people) HATE the seperatists. These are the ones more likely to vote. A strong seperatist movement will be a powerful motivator for Montreal area federalists, do not discount it. As for the weather, the BQ is probably praying for snow....but it could be sunny...who knows.
12 01 06 Francois Cimon
Lapierre est honni mais peut compter sur sa rente de votes des communautés culturelles. Si les péquistes n'ont pas pu gagner au provincial, dans un comté où la proportion de francophones avantage mieux les souverainistes, les bloquistes ne pourront pas faire de miracles.
Au surplus, L-P Lauzon va diviser le vote progressiste et la percée conservatrice risque d'aller gruger des votes nationalistes.
Il faut donc se faire à l'idée du retour de Jean Lapierre.
10 01 05 LJ Amundsen
"Italians, Greeks and Jews" are getting older, and coming in are other immigrant. A good snowstorm might keep them away from the polls. And seriously does anyone believe Parizeau determines anything any more, with Boisclair running the PQ? Or that votes for Charest are "Liberal" votes? The provincial Liberals are totally clear of any guilt on sponsorship and are led by a former PC leader, and everyone knows that Charest is the one guy who can win a Conservative federal seat in Quebec, if he ever wants to. So the provincial byelection results mean nothing, the comments from 1995 mean less all the time. The vote here is close, so whoever wins will have work to do.
And boy would the Bloc love Outremont in their column on election night. In Toronto the business community believes it can't win at all in places like this, and it's always "Outremont" that is mentioned as "unwinnable" for the Bloc, whereas in reality it's Cotler's riding that's unwinnable. The sheer morale factor of a Bloc win here makes it worth their time to invest in, and win. And it's not like they're facing a fight elsewhere or having to split their attention over 308 ridings.
This is what everyone misses: the Bloc only needs to focus on 20 ridings. Other parties have got a lot more to look at.
10 01 05 Sébastien Ayotte
Le PQ n'a pu réussir à ravir ce comté dans les dernières élections partielles (alors que ce parti l'a emporté avec 69% dans Verchères!), prouvant que l'électorat non francophone d'Outremont forme encore un bloc très fort autour des libéraux tant provinciaux que fédéraux.
Sans compter la division du vote de gauche que causera Léo-Paul Lauzon !
Jacques Léonard a de bien maigres chances.
09 01 05 David Pagé
Je persiste à croire à une victoire à l'arrachée du Bloc dans ce comté pour plusieurs raisons. Première Jean Lapierre, je connais personnellement plusieurs citoyens de ce comté qui en on HONTE et le mot est faible. Si habituellement les fédéralistes de ce comté qui sont en général plutôt socialo-bourgeois ont un problème à voter conservateur, la chance que ces derniers ont d'être au gouvernement ou la très crédible candidature du Prof Lauzon leur donnera une raison de tourner le dos au clown cette fois-ci. Deuxièmement, les résultats de la dernière élection partielle démontre que le PQ et l'UFP ensemble avaient sensiblement le même nombre de voix que les libéraux à eux seuls. La différence sur la scène fédérale c'est que ce sont les fédéralistes qui sont divisés ( Conservateurs, libéraux et néo-démocrate ) face à un seul parti souverainiste. Je crois à ce moment ci de la campagne que Jacques Léonard va gagner par des miettes vers 3 ou 4h du matin... ça reste à voir!
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
"Italians, Greeks and Jews" are getting older, and coming in are other immigrant. A good snowstorm might keep them away from the polls. And seriously does anyone believe Parizeau determines anything any more, with Boisclair running the PQ? Or that votes for Charest are "Liberal" votes? The provincial byelection results mean nothing, the comments from 1995 mean less all the time. The vote here is close, so whoever wins will have work to do.
And boy would the Bloc love Outremont in their column on election night. In Toronto the business community believes it can't win at all in places like this, and it's always "Outremont" that is mentioned as "unwinnable" for the Bloc, whereas in reality it's Cotler's riding that's unwinnable. The sheer morale factor of a Bloc win here makes it worth their time to invest in, and win. And it's not like they're facing a fight elsewhere or having to split their attention over 308 ridings.
This is what everyone misses: the Bloc only needs to focus on 20 ridings. Other parties have got a lot more to look at.
10 01 06 Sébastien Ayotte
Le PQ n'a pu réussir à ravir ce comté dans les dernières élections partielles (alors que ce parti l'a emporté avec 69% dans Verchères!), prouvant que l'électorat non francophone d'Outremont forme encore un bloc très fort autour des libéraux tant provinciaux que fédéraux.
Sans compter la division du vote de gauche que causera Léo-Paul Lauzon !
Jacques Léonard a de bien maigres chances.
09 01 06 David Pagé
Les résultats de la dernière élection partielle démontre que le PQ et l'UFP ensemble avaient sensiblement le même nombre de voix que les libéraux à eux seuls. La différence sur la scène fédérale c'est que ce sont les fédéralistes qui sont divisés ( Conservateurs, libéraux et néo-démocrate ) face à un seul parti souverainiste. Je crois à ce moment ci de la campagne que Jacques Léonard va gagner par des miettes vers 3 ou 4h du matin... ça reste à voir!
08 01 06 El Suavé
Some food for prediction:
1) The Grits are taking an unholy beating here in Quebec, the latest polls all have them down at their lowest since, well...god knows when. Lapierre only won this riding by the skin of his teeth last time, and we all know he isn't the most popular of the quebec liberals, despite his being their Quebec lieutenant. Lapierre is far from secure. Unless Martin can come on strong in the debates, he is in big, big trouble.

2) The NDP have this riding in their targets for Quebec: they figure Lauzon to be one of the most likely orange victories in Quebec. Their campaign team is hard at work, day in, day out to make a real play here. There is a real NDP presence being felt here (at least moreso than a Liberal one vis-a-vis signage). Where they are going to bleed votes from is up in the air; the left-leaning soft-separatists may choose to opt for him in hopes of forwarding progressive politics. Or, federalists fed up with the Liberals may park with the NDP, not necessarily beacuase of Lauzon, but because of New Democrat politics. With the NDP polling 11% in Montreal, they got a real shot at this one.
3) The Bloc have a former PQ cabinet minister, but nobody remembers him. HOWEVER, BLOQUIST MOMENTUM WILL PROBABLY INCH HIM IN TO OTTAWA, with the grits, dippers and cons fighting for table scraps.
I gotta say though, there is still time - this one ain't gonna be clear until late on election night.
03 01 06 P.P.
Normally, the Bloc should have had a realistic chance of winning this riding.But the presence of a high profile candidate for the NDP will probably take away enough votes from the Bloc to allow Jean Lapierre to sneak in.
15 12 05 expat
With Lauzon running (and being all over the Francophone media speaking for the NPD), this is the only riding in Quebec with a viable chance of going orange. The math of the race is complex - Lauzon will draw votes from both Lapierre and from the Bloc (whose candidate, Leonard, is a solid but uninspiring Pequiste MNA).
It remains questionable if there is a realistic chance to more than double the NDP total - which is what it would take to win in a three way race. Few of my neighbours or friends (franco-, anglo- and allo- phone) seem to be quite certain of what they think will happen or even how they will vote... Certainly if Lapierre makes some more stupid remarks, if the Liberals continue to tank in Quebec, if Layton performs well in the French debates and convinces Montreal intellectuals (which is this riding's largest social grouping) that progressive ideals are better served by voting NDP than sending a Bloc MP to Ottawa to side with Harper.... if all the winds blow one way, it could happen. Otherwise, look for a tight three way race that any of the parties could win, but that is most likely to end up with a re-elected Liberal LaPierre edging out the Bloc, with a stronger NDP showing than the last election and the Conservative lucky to break 10%. This one will be more fun to watch than just about any other riding in Quebec
14 12 05 Kilgore Trout
If the recent provincial by-election is any indication, Jean Lapierre will win, but it will be close. The NDP's Léo-Paul Lauzon might take votes away from the Bloc, just as the UFP split the left-wing and sovereigntist vote in the by-election.
Of course, if Lapierre keeps on shooting himself in the foot, all bets are off.
13 12 05 Bear and Ape
Let's dispell some rumors. Federalist Montrealers are not going to vote Conservative and split the Federalist vote. Simply put, they don't want the separatists in. This could be a problem in areas outside of Montreal, but Montreal (and Outremont) has too many Anglophones and Allophones to risk having a separatists as a representative. As for Jewish groups voting BQ because of Lapierre's Nazi comments, forget it! It will blow over since the Nazi comments were directed at the BQ and not the Jewish population. The Jewish population should very well remember a prominent separatist premier's "money and ethnics" comment and then when he clarified his comments he said the ethnics were "Italians, Greeks and Jews". Now the byelection yesterday should quash any remaining comments about the separatists taking this riding due to unpopularity of the Liberals. Charest and the provincial Liberals are down in the dumps still and yet they pulled off a victory with about 49% of the vote (PQ got 37%). The 2003 election saw Liberals 58% and PQ 31% (Liberals were riding sky high in that election). Obviously the bleeding of votes to the separatists is not as great as some are predicting. Like him or loath him, Lapierre will be back.
13 12 05 JFB
Une victoire du Bloc dans Outremont paraît maintenant plus qu'improbable, pour plusieurs raisons. Premièrement, en raison des structures sociales inhérentes à la circonscription. À ce sujet, l'élection partielle provinciale du 12 décembre nous éclaire. Malgré un taux d'insatisfaction frôlant les 70%, le PLQ a réussi à conserver ce comté avec une bonne majorité. Décidément, le vote allophone est toujours fortement libéral dans Côte-des-Neiges. Deuxièmement, la présence du NPD avec Lauzon viendra diviser le vote de gauche, comme ce fut le cas lors de la partielle provinciale, l'UFP et les Verts minant le vote du PQ. On ne peut pas demander au NPD de jouer le jeu du BQ, mais on aurait pu s'attendre à ce qu'il ne joue pas le rôle du PLC et de Lapierre. Troisièmement, on a beau détester Lapierre pour de multiples raisons, sa machine électorale est très bien rodée. Quatrièmement, les analystes politiques et le BQ lui-même placent Outremont en 61e ou 62e place au niveau des gains. Avant de remporter Outremont, le BQ aura remporté Gatineau, Beauce, Jeanne-LeBer, Papineau, Ahuntsic et Brossard-Laprairie. Nous sommes donc loin d'une victoire du BQ ici. Victoire Lapierre-PLC.
10 12 05 Nathan B.
The NDP and Tory candidates will drain away votes from the Liberals, leading to a Bloc victory.
However, the impact of Lapierre's "Nazi" comment is being overblown. The Canadian Jewish Congress said it was an irresponsible remark but did NOT demand an apology because, obviously, Lapierre is not an anti-semite. In fact, in an interview, Jeffery Boro, the director of the CJC Quebec region, said the media was making too much out of his reaction. He noted that Lapierre has been a "good friend" of the Jewish community.
B'Nai Brith, which tends to be more militant than the CJC, may feel differently, but that organization represents a smaller segment of the Jewish community. I think most Jews who read and understand the context of what Lapierre said will not vote based on that alone. Outremont's large Hasidic population, which tends to vote in a block from what I understand, will probably not cast ballots for a separatist.
Unfortunately for federalists (and those fearing a Conservative minority) Lapierre is a big disappointment, lacking sound political judgement and credible charisma. The fact his "Quebec lieutenant" status was apparently transferred to Dion may serve as evidence that Paul Martin (or Liberal brass) feel the same. Regrettably, I'll have to plug my nose and vote for the Transport Minister, but only because I dread the thought of Harper being prime minister, minority government or otherwise.
09 12 05 Robert
Why would folks want to vote for a separatist posing as a Liberal when that can vote for a sincere separatist. If only Chretien knew he could have banned people from the party for life back in 1990.
08 12 05 ced
Jean Lapierre gagnera le comté d'Outremont. Il a gagné avec plus de 3000 voix en 2004. Le candidat Néo-démocrate, Léo-Paul Lauzon a affirmé en début de campagne qu'il était souverainiste. Ce candidat ira gruger des voix au candidat bloquiste, Jacques Léonard, et non à Jean Lapierre. Lapierre pourrait même gagner avec une plus forte majorité cette fois-ci.
07 12 05 Benbou
La présence de Léo-Paul Lauzon ne devrait pas nuire au bloc, le bloc prônant déjà un plan avant-gardiste sur l'énergie et l'essence. C'est le vote libéral qui risque de se déplacer vers le NPD. Et, avec les déclarations de Jean Lapierre, plusieurs électeurs de ce comté risquent de tout simplement rester chez eux le 23 janvier.
Victoire bloquiste.
05 12 05 Pierre-Luc Pilon
With Lapierre's comments on the Nazi tendancies of the Bloc (This guys is not helping himself) and a potential win of the Parti Québécois in the December 12th partials, I predict that a lot of effort will be spent to send the transport minister back to journalism.
The Bloc just announced his efforts for the current campain : a 2 milion + ad campain all over Québec.
With Jacques Léonard, a former provincial MNA, I predict, from the info I obtained from both clan (friends acting as organizer for whether the Bloc or the Grits) that Lapierre's political sufferings ;) will end soon and that Outremont, as weird as it sounds, will become a souveranist ridings.
05 12 05 Travis Chase
Jean Lapierre sealed his own fate with his nazi comment, he is drawing heat from the Canadian Jewish groups and they won't let him forget, and antagonizing the Bloc is only going to motivate people to vote against him. Expect a Bloc win here on January 23rd.
01 12 05 Jeff Greenfield
The Conservatives are running a strong candidate in this riding. Though they certainly haven't a hope of picking this riding up, they may very well split the federalist vote with the Liberals, giving the Bloc a decent shot to edge out the Grits.
29 11 05
Victoire de Jean Lapierre mais tout de même serrée entre les Libéraux et le Bloc Québécois. Nous allons avoir à l'élection complémentaire du 12 décembre un aperçu de ce qui pourrait arriver.
30 11 05 L.O.
Unlike most of the Liberal organization in Quebec (including Martin), LaPierre does not carry the same adscam baggage. He's also been a very effective and centrist Transport minister. He might find the margins closer than he'd like, but he'll hold this one. . .
24 11 05 Liberty Canada
Selon moi, le Provincial va l'emporter. L'election de M. Boisclair au succession du PQ met l'accent sur l'importance d'un victoire du PLQ, et ainsi pour le Federale.
Au provincial, le PQ a une probleme en forme de Omar Aktouf, militant connu de L'union des Forces progressistes, un parti separatiste qui attire les Pequistes qui croient que le PQ a abandonne leurs priciples de la democracie sociale. L'ADQ ne'st pas un force a montreal, et les federalistes no'nt pas confiance en eux, alors le vote Federaliste ira fortement au PLQ.
Donc, je suis d'accord avec ceux qui disent que les elections partiels seront un prevision du resultat au federale.
Au Federale, le vote Pequiste ira au bloc, et de l'UFP au Neo-Democrates, et dans un situation quasi referendaire, les federalistes voteront en solidarite avec Lapierre.
23 11 05 Marc Dubé
À mon avis, c'est une victoire Libéral si le provincial l'emporte, cela voudras dire que les libéraux sortent voté. Sinon, je crois encore à Lapierre, mais je ne metterais pas ma tête au billot, je prédit que ce seras très chaud, si le PLQ ne gagne pas la partiel.
22 11 05 JFB
Très difficile à prédire pour l'instant. Bien sûr, les Libéraux ne sont pas appréciés et Jean Lapierre encore moins. On pourrait donc croire à une victoire du Bloc. Mais le NPD vient encore une fois brouiller les cartes avec un candidat vedette: après Aktouf, voici Lauzon. De quoi faire rager le Bloc qui pourrait perdre des plumes au profit de Lauzon. À moins que les Libéraux perdent des plumes au profit de Lauzon... scénario moins probable, Lauzon étant tellement à gauche sur l'échiquier politique. Avant de faire une prédiction, le mieux sera d'attendre le résultat de l'élection partielle dans Outremont au niveau provincial. Si le PQ l'emporte le 12 décembre, la voix sera sans doute ouverte pour le Bloc.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
As much as I hate Jean Lapierre, fact is he is the Liberal candidate and there are just too many immigrants for the Bloc to be able to win the seat here. The NDP might pick up a few votes but not enough to change the picture. The Liberals will keep this seat.
28 05 05 Mathieu Gaudreault
Je change mon pronostic. Une courte victoire de Lapierre. En 2004 Jean Lapierre a quand même gagné par 2400 voix sur Rebello un meileur candidat que jacques léonard. Les Libéraux fédéraux vont mettre le paquet dans ce comté, de plus les gens de Côte des Neiges votent toujours masivement Libéral. De plus l'élection aura probablement lieu en Automne 2005 ce qui laisse le temps aux libéraux de remonter de quelque %. Le bloc quoi qu'on en dise voit son vote stagner. De plus, les libéraux ont toujours une prime à l'urne.
Les gens d'Outremont vont certainement voter pour un ministre que pour un backbencher. Ausi certains électeurs qui serianet tenté par les conservateurs et le npd iront voter libéraux si le bloc semble l'emporter(comme l'année d'avant). Jacques Léonard adans les 70 ans et il est un politicien usé. une victoire de Lapierre avec 1200 à 2500 votes de plus.
19 05 05 RL
Avec Jacques Léonard au Bloc Québécois, le Bloc peut espérer gagner ce comté. Surtout que Jean Lapierre n'est pas vraiment aimé au Québec, c'est un peu notre clown politique...
19 05 05 Lana
Leo Paul Lauzon, if he indeed decides to go, is a stroke of genius for the NDP. In a three-way race, he has a good shot at getting in there. Last time, Aktouf was a good candidate for the NDP, but Lauzon is a giant in comaprison. Lapierre and Leonard will both lose vote to the Prof.
18 05 05 Bear and Ape
Many may not like him, but Lapierre will likely survive. Outremont is ethnically diverse, with a sizable Jewish population who are usually Liberal (those Jews, often of north African descent, who tend to vote with the seperatists are very often a very silent minority for fear of being shunned by the community). In any case the Liberals have a sizable voting base who are going to try to block the bloc and vote Grit.
17 05 05 Aric H
This is the riding with the Liberal who used to be a Separatist but now wants to be a Liberal. I had heard at one point last year that Lapierre was going to lose this riding. In the final week of the campaign I read an article that said he had to go and remind the Jewish community in this riding to vote Liberal like they normally do because he was worried he would lose without their support. He did win it by almost 3,000 votes but it is still a close riding what with vote splitting, BQ support and controversy over the man himself. However, he may win a small victory because he still has some profile as a cabinet minister and the riding still has a lot of federalists. Hard to believe this situation has developed in a riding that once belonged to Pierre Trudeau's friend and cabinet minister Marc Lalonde!
17 05 05 Neal
As repulsive a candidate as Jean Lapierre is, I think that as People come to terms with how a vote for the Bloc wll be interpreted at the provincial level will bring about sober second thought. One time is a protest, twice is a trend. I think some protestors, and stay at homes may well correct what nearly happened last time.
18 05 05 David Pagé
WOW... Jacques Léonard contre Jean Lapierre! Soit la bataille sera féroce mais pour connaître M. Léonard depuis des années et considérant la tendance qu'à M. Lapierre pour parler beaucoup et dire peu... Ajouter à cela la vague bloquiste dû au scandale des commandites, l'offensive bloquiste face aux Néo-Québécois, l'impopularité de M. Lapierre lui-même et la possibilité que le NPD une fois de plus puisse compter sur un candidat populaire pour siphonner le vote des libéraux. Le livre de l'histoire sera marquer par une victoire du Bloc ici...
18 05 05 Mathieu Gaudreault
Une courte victoire du Blco est a prévoir. Bien que Côte des Neiges sont pro libérale, plusiuers vont probablment s'abstenir de voter. Le bloc est aller chercher un bon candidat, l'ancien ministre péquiste Jacques Léonard. Oamr Aktouf ne se présente pas, les conservateurs et le npd vont certainement envoyer des poteaux dans ce comté. Il y'a aussi un certain mouvement anti Lapierre.Par contre le bloc s'il l'emporte c'est avec moins de 1000 voix d'écart.
16 05 05 Antonio
When Outremont goes Bloc, It's time to separate for real. The Lapierre anger has subsided, it will be a walk in the park.
15 05 05 CJD
there is still a chance that the liberals will hold onto this riding, but if they win, it will be by the smallest of margins. the bloc had momentum in the last election and i can only see it increasing this time around.
one thing to look out for will be the NDP vote. in 2004 it was 15%, which is much higher than average in quebec. a high NDP share of the vote could spell disaster for lapierre and the liberals.
08 05 05 mas
I disagree with JFB... the last time around, the NDP's strong candidate split the federalist vote, giving the BQ their best chance ever of making a breakthrough, and the liberals still won. Even if the NDP runs a strong campaign a again, it will still help the BQ, but not enough to topple the PLC in this riding. There are just too many anglophones and allophones in this riding for this to be BQ territory.
06 05 05 M. Lunn
Jean Lapierre may hold this riding since this is not exactly a separtist riding, but with the liberals at an all time low, not to mention Jean Lapierre is a gaffe prone member, I think a Bloc win this time around is quite possible.
05 05 05 BrianJA
Lapierre devrait commencer à emballer en ce moment, parce qu'il n'y a aucune chance de lui gagnant ici, a moins qu'il decide de tourner vers le Bloc Quebecois encore. Le Bloc gagnera cette conscription dans un battement de coeur. La voix Liberal s'effondre au Québec et Outremont deviendra un des conscription qu'ils perdent. Les NPD ont une loin-chance ici, mais on iront Bloc. Prévision: Victoire de BQ par 3000 voix ou plus.
03 05 05
Outremont has been a liberal riding for most of the last century and it's not going to change with this election. The Bloc doesn't stand a chance in this better-off english/french mixed riding.
03 05 05 JB
Jean Lapierre est la bête noire des libéraux du Québec. Les bloquistes ont déjà prévu mettre beaucoup d'énergie pour que ce comté leur passe entre les mains. De plus, le nom de Lapierre n'est pas propre...
03 05 05 Paul
Seems like Lapierre's second career as a politician will end quickly.
His popularity sunk over the past year and with people realizing how close the riding was, those Bloc voters who didn't bother to vote last time because the election seemed lost (in the riding) for them will vote this time.
Conservatives are not a factor here -- riding is very left-wing, even though you would not believe it looking at the average income.
26 04 05
It's the end of the line for Lapierre. His being a Liberal notwithstanding, he was an unmitigated disaster in his ministerial duties, and as Mr. Dithers' Quebec lieutenant.
this one goes to the Bloc... unless the tories succeed in recruiting Yves Seguin, and he chooses to run in Outremont rather than the Quebec City area.
26 04 05 JFB
J'habite Outremont. Aktouf (NPD) ne devrait pas se représenter. Lors de la dernière élection, Aktouf a obtenu la balance des voix. Pas cette fois: les citoyens qui voudront se débarrasser des Libéraux et de Lapierre n'hésiteront pas, ne diviseront pas leur vote. Ils voteront Bloc. Je prévois une courte victoire du Bloc.



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