Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley


Prediction Changed
2009-11-20 09:39:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Armstrong, Scott

Blanch, Jason

Burrows, Jim

Hnatiuk, Jim

Robinson, Wendy

Incumbent:
Scott Armstrong

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • cumberland-colchester (208/208 Polls)
  • sackville-musquodoboit-valley-eastern-shore (25/218 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 04 28 Teddy Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    The NDP could win here. They are polling 30% or so across the Atlantic. These votes wont be in New Brunswick, they will come here in NS where the party is strong.
    11 04 13 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Somehow, I think a lot of the hand-wringing in the last number of posts over misguided NDP bullishness is based not only upon pre-byelection open-seat circumstances that no longer pertain, but upon a ‘misplaced’ entry--that of ‘pathrik’ was evidently meant for South Shore-St. Margaret's, not CCMV. (It happens.)
    11 04 11 MF
    70.48.66.229
    I agree, the NDP predictions here are ridiculous. This is the most Conservative riding in Nova Scotia and I don't see it changing hands as Scott Armstrong took this by a wide margin. And while Bill Casey had a huge personal following he was always a pretty mainstream Tory who just broke over the Atlantic Accord. And with Casey gone, CCMV has returned to its normal voting patterns.
    11 04 04 JT
    24.222.236.248
    This race could be a lot closer than it was during the by-election. With the ndp's popularity dropping provincially, and the ndp candidate not having much of a profile so far in this campaign, it looks like it's becoming a two way race between the conservatives and liberals. While the liberals have a lot of ground to make up, a strong national and local campaign could bring them within winning range.
    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    76.70.89.95
    When the results for this riding come in, what we should compare them to is the results from 2006 - when then-Tory Bill Casey got 52% of the vote, and had a 28-point margin over the second-place Liberals. That's the magic number for Scott Armstrong to shoot for. 2008 proved that Bill Casey had an immense personal following and that he could attract voters of all stripes - the ideal maverick. Armstrong, on the other hand, only has his incumbency to fall back on. Still, that's probably enough to produce the best Tory tally in Nova Scotia this time around.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    142.177.100.229
    Every single NDP comment on this riding is nonsense. All the commentators should be ignored on any riding accordingly. CCMV and SSSM have nothing in common whatsoever, nor did Casey and Keddy really.
    Conservative win. If these voters went straight from strongly supporting Bill Casey to electing Harper's chosen crony, no further comment required.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    The panhandle of Nova Scotia is where the Tories both provincially and federally have tended to rack up their biggest margins. After Bill Casey won as an independent, some thought this was more of a Bill Casey riding than a Tory one, but after seeing the by-election results, I think it is clear this is a Tory riding and should stay one.
    11 03 23 Brian A
    99.192.96.95
    My riding. Jim is a good candidate, don't get me wrong, but this is a very rural, conservative-friendly riding. It'll take the utter collapse of the conservative vote (i.e. 1993) to cause anybody but Scott to win here.
    11 02 24 Switters
    138.73.70.225
    While I agree that Gerald Keddy's popularity has little to do with CCMV, Dave P's comments need to be qualified. In the 2009 by-election, Armstrong took 45% of a *36% turnout*. That works out to roughly 16% of the vote! Not enough to say that Armstrong is not vulnerable. Sure, the Conservative campaign team was excellent at getting out its vote in the by-election, but that's relatively easy to do at only 16%. Being shortly after the provincial campaign, volunteers were also fired up about losing to Zann, Skabar and Burrill. While I'm reluctant to call CCMV anything else but Conservative, I can also say that the '09 by-election results are a non-factor in making this prediction. There's been no annoucement of the NDP candidate, but I have heard that Mark Austin is not offering again. The Liberals, even with a fired up Jim Burrows are not a threat for this seat, so we'll have to see how interesting the local NDP can make this race. Otherwise, as Dave predicts, it'll be a Harper cakewalk.
    11 02 05 DaveP
    142.68.233.180
    The fact that an incumbent MP from another Nova Scotia riding (Gerald Keddy) looks vulnerable shouldn't have any impact at all on this particular riding, as the previous submission suggests. Scott Armstrong should have no problem being re-elected, as this is possibly the safest Tory seat in the province, maybe even Atlantic Canada. It would take a huge block of Tories voting NDP or Liberal, just to make this a close race. Armstrong won the by-election, has worked to make a name for himself and has a campaign team that has delivered many times in the past. While the name mentioned above may be vulnerable, Armstrong is not, and I predict he will improve on his by-election victory.
    10 04 30 pathrik
    142.177.225.171
    this riding will go NDP this time. Keddy is one incumbent that can be beaten. He looks vulnerable due to a lot of criticism provincially.
    09 11 10 Gone Fishing
    64.231.99.43
    Sorry I just don't see the NDP breakthrough here. Distant second this time to the CPC or distant second to the former CPC turned independent is still distant second. The only thing here that changed is Liberal vote splitting allowed the CPC to go up the middle past the Dippers whereas years ago it would have been the NDP doing that favour to the Libs. However with 45% of the vote with a newcomer the CPC is not exactly worried about a unite the left movement in this riding.
    Let's face it Casey did what a man of honour had to do. He felt he had to stand up to the Atlantic accord and did so knowing his fate in his party. He had too much class and perhaps his moral compass prevented him from switching party colours and chose to sit as an independent where he won handily as an independent on the ticket. Kudos to him for falling honourably on his sword for his riding.
    Now the case is clear Casey did not come out and support another candidate, he wasn't all over the riding in a Danny Williams like ABC way during the byelection campaign and he voted largely with the government since being cast out he behaved like, well like a conservative. That's why he was able to build his support last time and why so many of his supporters went back to the EDA and helped out the new candidate - because they are conservatives.
    09 11 10 binriso
    156.34.213.226
    Looks like this riding is back to its pattern of voting CPC again, probably a boring slam dunk in the next election, although somewhat smaller margins than when Casey was their MP.
    09 11 10 MV
    99.240.193.34
    This riding is a traditional true blue riding, so I was thinking about a Conservative win of about 40-45%.
    However, two things:
    -The NDP support provincially have NOTHING to do with the federal support especially in more rural Nova Scotia because the provincial NDP is very much like any other major political party in the Maritimes as being centrist and this as the federal NDP is considered too left-wing federally for some voters. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NDP lose one to two seats in the next general election in Nova Scotia.
    -The Liberals also had a good score, considering their varying support provincially.


    By-election Prediction
    November 9, 2009
    Incumbent
    Courant
    Prediction
    Prvision
    Elected
    Elu
    Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

    09 11 09 Just C MacKay
    75.159.14.182
    I think the CPC will take this seat but it will be very,very close. The NDP has a strong candidate and byelections never favor the government. The CPC relies heavily on a National campaign in a Byelection their is none. Harper can't even visit the riding as it would do more harm than good after the 2 years Bill Casey spent as a walking attack ad. The conservative brand is obviously heavily damaged here.
    That being said I think the elimination of the gun control registry will bring out people to vote conservative that might otherwise have stayed home. If the Local CPC candidate was smart he would have been advertising this to his rural constituents with any remaining campaign monies.
    The fact that the NDP broke through in this province is telling about Liberal fortunes. It was their turn to govern and they got shut out, they will be a non-factor and this will also likely contribute to a conservative win.
    09 11 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    70.51.131.151
    Highly doubt that this will get posted before the byelection results are announced but we wanted to get our two cents worth. The CPC will likely take back this riding. It is very much a Progressive Conservative riding, so much so that it was close in the '93 PC implosion. To suggest it will not CPC would seem to go against the natural order of the universe. Having said that, on the provincial level, it has gone against that natural order and voted NDP. The NDP have spent plenty of money & resources, couple that with some lingering resentment towards what Harper did to Casey and you'll see an unusually strong showing for the NDP. If the NDP takes it in a squeeker, we wouldn't be flabbergasted, just slightly surprised. Bottom line CPC but closer than what one would expect.
    09 11 06 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    For whatever reason i don't think i'll make a solid prediction here but i'm giving Scott Armstrong the advantage but if he wins it will be by a much smaller margin than Bill Casey's victories . he maintains the advantage due to the fact he has deep roots in the riding, running for the party currently in government and the fact this rural riding has been historically conservative over the years. that being said the ndp and liberals are still factors and investing some resources here and brough in there leaders to visit the previously ignored riding. Jim Burrows i noticed well doing a web search also has one of the most impresive candidate websites i have seen in recent years , complete with youtube videos and such. but either way i'd be very surprised if he won this seat or even came in a strong second, the only good news for Ignatieff is that he's certain to do better than dion here as the liberals only got 10% last time. as it appears the ndp is running too strong here for that to happen and there candidate Mark Austin thinks he has a chance to win so unlike other east coast ridings ndp voters will not be going liberal to try and stop the conservatives. but i think its less likely this riding goes to an opposition party when there is more than one credible candidate running against the conservative.
    09 11 06 Moriarty
    138.73.70.34
    At the beginning of this I predicted two things:
    1)a lack of a sense of urgency (not canvassing etc.) would be a characteristic of the Conservative campaign and
    2) Armstrong's status and experience as a campaign manager would lead to missteps and mistakes that could cost him.
    Both have turned out to be true. Armstrong floundered with threatening in the local paper that people should vote for him or risk being cut off from the trough. The Conservative canvass campaign has been nowhere to be found which indicates that they decided canvassing wasn't a part of their plan. In addition, rather than just ignore Hnatiuk and treat him as fringe candidate, Armstrong's drawn himself into a public battle with the CHP candidate over the Gun Registry and fiscal conservatism. He's proved easy to provoke and a poor choice for a candidate.
    Austin, on the other hand, has been steady. The NDP campaign got off to a slow start, and still isn't showing the robustness of the latest provincial campaign, but they've steadily gained. Austin's biggest victory was positioning himself as a solid alternative to Armstrong. He's has also avoided missetps in the local media, no small feat in a media market of molehills. Austin's also clearly neutralized the Green factor, by having a better sustainability record than the the GPC candidate. His campaign has smartly ignored the Liberals and he has come out on the top of the credibility scale by avoiding mudslinging.
    The Liberal campaign was surprising for its appearance of organization and its web presence. But their candidate and leader is where it's gone wrong. Burrows has allowed himself to be drawn in to media fights, and also hurt himself before the campaign even began by *sabre-rattling* in the local paper for a General Election the day after he was nominated. Ignatieff's visit to the riding didn't even register and I'm sure Jim is tired of hearing, on doorstep after doorstep, that people just don't trust his leader. The Liberals may return to their historical level of support in this riding, but it won't be because of the campaign. It'll be because the fluid Casey vote will come back home.
    Layton's weekend long visit to the riding was extremely effective. It's a different stratgey to send him into the rural maritimes, but I think it'll pay off. The local NDP lucked out with a great candidate. The EKOS and other poling numbers out of Atlantic Canada keep trending up week after week, and this can largely be attributed to this campaign (due to sample size). The Liberals are not a threat to take the seat, the Conservatives have hit the panic button and the Greens have been effectively neutralized.
    I suggest that the riding be moved into the NDP column.
    09 11 06 Acadien
    204.50.205.242
    NDPers are thanking Mike Duffy for handing them CCMV on a platter with his scurrilous and unwarranted attacks on Peter Stoffer, one of the true straight arrows in the HOC.
    Stoffer's report on Seante piggishness obviously peirced the thin skin of the porcine Mr. Duffy.
    Rumour has it that the dippers are taking up a collection to pay Duffy's fare to the other three ridings being contested on the 9th. You can't buy advertising like having the opponent go negative on himself!
    09 11 05 Nomad
    24.224.221.57
    The Conservatives have the most to lose in this riding, and everyone else -- presumably the NDP -- has everything to gain. Memories are short and the discord over the Atlantic Accord should not be a factor in what is, traditionally, a conservative riding. Spillover from the provincial NDP victory is likely to be minimal, as the federal-provincial translation is not as pronounced, and often non-existent. CHP vote-bleeding will be similarly minimal. Make no mistake -- this is the Conservatives' seat to pick back up, and failure to do so should be counted as a big loss for them on by-election night. This is one of the 155 seats that has to go blue if the Conservatives are ever to get their majority. Conversely, should the unthinkable happen, and the NDP somehow carry the night, it will give the federal NDP a much-needed boost in a time when they could use anything to be excited about. That said, a third-place finish is not out of the question, either, for the NDP.
    09 11 05 DL
    38.99.136.242
    Its hard to say what will happen here. I don't see how telling people you are behind mobilizes people to vote. It especially doesn't do much for Liberals to have their own party insiders spreading rumours that the NDP is winning since the net effect of that is to depress Liberal morale and make people think that voting NDP is the best way to defeat the Tories. Of course the federal NDP isn't IDENTICAL to the Nova Scotia NDP - but there is a lot more overlap than with the other parties. Darrell Dexter and Jack Layton are close friends, Dexter spoke at the federal NDP convention, they have a shared membership and I'd be hard-pressed to think of any specific policy area where the federal and Nova Scotia NDP aren't on the same page. In the last two federal elections the NDP got a higher percentage of the popular vote in Nova Scotia than in any other province! (30%) On the other hand, a lot of people in Nova Scotia who were willing to vote for the wishy-washy provincial Tories under Rodney MacDonald - may not be so enthusiastic about the Alberta-based Reform Party that has staged a hostile takeover of the federal PCs - and I don't see Count Ignatieff being much of a draw in rural NS either.
    09 11 02 MF
    70.52.183.80
    Don't know if this will be posted before the byelection. I'm predicting the Tories will hold on but by a narrower margin than when it was held by Bill Casey. While Casey was personally popular, this is definitely one of the more small-?c? conservative Nova Scotia ridings. Darrell Dexter will almost certainly give the federal NDP a boost, but there is still a perception that Dexter is far more centrist and they won't be getting anywhere near all of that support. My prediction is:
    Conservatives, 41%
    NDP, 29%
    Liberals, 21%
    Christian Heritage, 4%
    Greens, 4%
    Certainly the byelection result will give us a sense of how strong Dexter's coat-tails are and where things are headed in Nova Scotia.
    09 11 01 Sean P.F.
    134.117.254.249
    In response to the question poised by DL, it is called voter mobilization. By-elections historically have horrible voter turnout (although given declining voter turnout it is not as bad as it used to be). If you tell national news sources that you expect the NDP to win this riding and New Westminster-Coquitlam, it gets to your people through local and national news. Odds are, people who support your party don't want to see an NDP MP represent them, so if they were not going to vote in the by-election, you can be damn sure they will get themselves and their Tory leaning neighbours out and vote to make sure they don't have a socialism MP by end of day November 9th.
    The Liberals and Tories want their people out voting on November 9th, and their statements on CTV are perfect bait for that.
    I still think the Tories will win, mostly due the history of this riding. We all know quite well that provincial election results never relate to federal election results, so the NDP winning Antigonish means very little come election day, because the Darrell Dexter's NS NDP are not Jack Layton's NDP, and the people know this.
    09 10 30 Moriarty
    138.73.70.34
    Smok, I was not suggesting your post be removed because I'm afraid the CHP may do well, I'm suggesting it be removed because the ADN's online polls are far too fallible to be considered relaible for the purposes of this site. In fact, that's why I removed my Party allegince from the post. I'm suggesting that to include the ADN online poll in any kind of prediction matrix could be problmeatic.
    I don't need to be worried about the CHP's chances...no one does.
    On to some information:
    I just came back from a campaign event in Amherst today. Layton was in town to rally the troops and have lunch with Mark at Duncan's, a small but great spot in Amherst.
    There was a pretty good turnout, but more importantly was *who* turned out. The faces were all the same faces from the provincial campaign! People are sticking with the NDP!
    It looks as though all of the naysayers claiming that *people won't just vote NDP because they did provincially* are wrong, because that's EXACTLY what's happening. Not only will they vote NDP, they'll donate, canvass, take lawn signs, make phone calls, come to events and so on. Given that NDP supporters do *get out and vote* this could translate into a win.
    As for claims about Conservative sign strength in Amherst, I can only say this:
    Tories around here think nothing of plunking lawn signs on rental properties owned by supporters (regardless of what the tenants inside would like), plunking them onto vacant lots,homes of seniors who would rather not fight them, the poor or uniformed who don't know any better and businesses and commercial buildings owned by their supporters. All of this *WITHOUT* asking if the person receiving the sign is a supporter.
    The folks in charge of the Hunter and Fage provincial campaigns in Amherst did the same thing. It's an old trick and it doesn't work. They learned that lesson in the provincial campaign...I guess they'll have to learn it twice.
    I'm tightening the numbers on my prediction:
    NDP 40%
    CPC 36%
    LPC 19%
    CHP 3%
    GPC 2%
    09 10 30 binriso
    156.34.213.226
    Obviously an NDP byelection win will involve a number of special circumstances.
    -low voter turnout, but NDPers being active in turning out
    -the CHP leader taking a few percent from the CPC
    -lingering resentment towards the CPC from the last few years
    -some momentum from the provincial victory
    Also lets remember that Casey was originally elected as a PC, which probably helped him achieve a higher vote percentage in the past few elections (compared to if he was an ex-Alliancer). The NDP have also been making some inroads in the region, coming close to 2nd in 2006 and for what it is worth they were 2nd by about 1500 votes over both the CPC and Liberals last election.
    So I think they can win and probably will, although it might be difficult to hold in a general election with a higher turnout.
    09 11 01 CGD
    138.73.163.151
    On the sign wars...I was passing through the riding today, (around the Masstown market area) and what struck me was that the CHP was holding its own in terms of signage. They had large highway signs with the picture of the leader, and I think the Conservatives had more signs, but certainly the CHP had more than the Libs or NDP.
    I think what can be taken away from this is that the CHP is putting in the resources here to be able to project itself (at least superficially) as a legitimate choice. I certainly doubt they will win the riding, but I think they will bleed support from the Conservatives, to the NDP and the Liberals benefit.
    09 10 26 Haligonian Political Junkie
    142.167.185.138
    I took a short drive through Amherst today, and I only saw Conservative lawn signs, while there was one Liberal billboard and one for the Christian Heritage Party. While one cannot obviously base an entire prediction upon lawn signs, they do indicate real support for a candidate and campaign organization. The sign war in Amherst simply reinforces my sense that the Conservatives will win this riding. Bill Casey secured healthy victories here as a Harper-led Conservative Party candidate in 2004 and 2006. Yes, Casey obviously had personal appeal, and this is what carried him to victory as an Independent in 2008, but in 2004 and 2006 the Conservative Party label did not hurt him either. With a new batch of local candidates the Conservatives should win, as voters here revert to party biases that will more closely resemble elections before 2008. To make reference to the 2009 provincial election numbers is pointless, as there is no universal correlation between provincial and federal voting habits in Nova Scotia. Moreover, the Tories are polling either at or above their 2008 numbers in Atlantic Canada, and there is no obvious anti-Conservative option here for those who still smart at Harper's treatment of Casey to gravitate towards. I will not predict the margin that the Conservatives will win by, or who will come second and third, but I think the riding will return to the Conservative fold.
    09 10 26 J.Mc.
    24.32.250.58
    On-line polls are far from reliable. The most a strong CHP showing would do is take social conservative votes away from the Tories, to the benefit of the Liberals and NDP. While Casey did get elected as an independent, he was already a popular, long-serving incumbent M.P., with the name recognition and money Hnatiuk does not have. Given this riding's history, I am going to lean Conservative on this one.
    09 10 25 Smok Wawelski
    69.159.65.151
    Afraid of something Moriarty?
    The contempt you display for another party's candidate and the organization he has at his disposal indicates that you are afraid that if Hnatiuk does not win he might actually edge out your candidate. He does have some resources at his disposal seeing as the party is throwing everything and everyone at this riding, and bear in mind the CHP is the 6th largest party in Canada in terms of paid up members with over 6000 should tell you that unlike previous efforts, this candidacy is the real thing.
    Moriarty, if you were not worried by something, why else would you be calling for my post to be removed, and why are you and Sackville so intent on trashing this poll?
    As I said, take it for what it's worth, but the fact that he can beat out everyone even on a suspect online poll is certainly of interest to readers here, some of whom would dearly love to see a show made more interesting by the injection of a new player!
    09 10 24 DL
    99.232.168.79
    For what it's worth, I saw on CTV last night that Robert Fife said that both Conservative AND Liberal sources were telling him that they expected the NDP to win the byelections in BC (no surprise) and Nova Scotia (surprise).
    I have no idea what is actually going on CCMV since I don't live there, but I'd like to know what would motivate Liberal AND Tory insiders to be telling journalists that they think the NDP is going to win the byelection in CCMV? I can see how the Tories - being favoured according to conventional wisdom - might want to low-ball their chances to make a win seem like a bigger deal when it happens. I can't really see any reason for the Liberals to want to spread a rumour that the NDP is poised to win here since all that would do is demoralize the Liberals in CCMV and send out a message that anti-Tory voters ought to rally behind the NDP.
    This week the NDP picked up a traditionally Tory provincial seat in a byelection in Antigonish. Maybe the orange steamroller is on a roll and the Tory and Grit sources are telling it like it is.
    09 10 21 R.O.
    209.91.149.205
    Think this seat is only in play for the major 3 parties , don't disagree that Jim Hnatiuk be a factor but i just don't see him winning or getting more than maybe 2000 votes if that. the greens also might of been more of a factor here had Elizabeth May decided to run but for whatever reason she decided to leave her home province and go west. but when considering the ridings history and likely anti conservative vote splitting you have to think conservative candidate Scott Armstrong has somewhat of an advantage here. that being said the liberals are still trying and even bringing in Ignatieff to the riding and its not a riding that would usually see liberal leaders drop by. and i'm assuming at the moment the liberals are pretty desperate for some good news after all the bad news of late. the same could be said for the ndp who brought layton into the riding one that ndp leaders usually would not campaign in. so the by-election is turning out to be a much different race than would be seen here during a general election. and i'm not sure how the whole issue around tory ridings in Nova Scotia possibly being funded better is going to play out here , it could actually backfire on the opposition and lead some voters to want to elect a government mp instead so the riding has a mp in government.
    09 10 18 SackvilleNB
    138.73.161.207
    To Smok Wawelski:
    It seems like you have altered the poll numbers so ill set the record straight.
    Jim Hnatiuk - Christian Heritage Party = 40%
    Scott Armstrong - Conservative = 23%
    Mark Austin - NDP = 17%
    Jim Burrows - Liberal = 14%
    Jason Blanch - Green Party = 5%
    09 10 17 Moriarty
    138.73.70.34
    I want to clear up Smok's posting on the CHP results in the Amherst Daily News online poll. The ADN website's online polls are very easy to manipulate. They do not post the amount of votes received, which damages the credibility of the data. The newest releases of Internet Explorer and Mozilla Firefox both have ?In Private? browsing capability which allows a browser to send new info to a website at each visit. I was doing this for Mark Austin until I got tired of keeping up with whoever was doing it for the CHP. Apparently the CHP guy has either a kid, or nephew/niece who knows some tricks about the internet. My argument is that the ADN online poll is not legitimate data. I encourage EPP staff to check out how easy it is to manipulate (you'll be able to change the results within a handful of votes) and then question whether Smok's latest contribution should remain on the site.
    09 10 16 Moriarty
    138.73.70.34
    Now that this campaign is on, and talking heads and typing fingers have come online with their opinions, it might be time to move this riding to the TCTC column. Even the Tories coming on here are admitting to NDP strength. Ekos polling numbers out of Atlantic Canada are clearly demonstrating a surge for the NDP. That strength is largely based on Atlantic Canada's population **powerhouse** of Nova Scotia (because Lord knows the NDP isn't strong in NB, PEI or NL).
    09 10 15 Smok Wawelski
    69.159.65.151
    Take it for what it's worth,and its usually not much, but there was an online poll done by the Amherst Daily News, and the results are as follows:
    If the CCMV byelection were held today, for whom would you vote?
    ? Jim Hnatiuk - Christian Heritage Party (49%)
    ? Scott Armstrong - Conservative (8%)
    ? Jason Blanch - Green Party (3%)
    ? Jim Burrows - Liberal (23%)
    ? Mark Austin - NDP (18%)

    How often to you see anybody but the main 4 faring so well, even on online polls... Something is definitely up!
    09 10 09 Gone Fishing
    64.231.145.238
    Boy I'm miles away from here but I really have to wonder about CHP candidate comments from ?Smok?. I understand he is not saying CFP will win, just that they may put on a strong showing.
    Looking at Hnatiuk's performance in 2008 back to 2004 (three elections) Two of these (2008 and 2004) were against Scott Brison in nearby Kings Hants and if a floor crossing-homosexual-Liberal is not the type of candidate that CHP supporters would come out to oppose given their same sex marriage stance (read the platform even a little - I did, and they oppose parliamentary sidestepping like floor crossing as well as same sex marriage and anything that can be negative to traditional marriage) than I guess there is not much hope for strong gains here.
    Please, I'm not trying to judge Brison, I actualy like him and wish he would jump back across the floor. he's obviously well respected and has performed admirably from his days of stepping aside so Joe Clark could gain a seat. I'm just saying that the religious right should show strong against Brison if he had a chink in his armor so to speak.
    I just don't see his ability to garner between 500 and 1500 votes having much of an impact and I think this is a main stream party race. If this is a close race I see the CHP vote doing what it and Green vote always does namely supporting the mainstream candidate and party most in line with their own thinking and/or opposed to whatever evil empire they see being built by the other maintsreamers. The only way the CHP is strong here is if Conservatives are VERY weak.
    09 10 06 R.O.
    209.91.149.95
    well we now know when the by-election is going to be november 9th and who all the major parties candidates will be in the riding. its fair to say that none of the candidates are as well known as Bill Casey so each will be relying on the parties support to get them elected. the conservative party has historically been the strongest party in this area of Nova Scotia although some of that goes back to the days of the old progressive conservative party. but the merged party was accepted here until casey left after the fued over the atlantic accord. and with casey gone you have to think some of that vote is going to come back and go to new conservative candidate Scott Armstrong . i find it odd the ndp who have never won this seat are somehow considered the favorites by some as to be honest i'm not even sure they will be able to beat the liberals for second here. don't really see how the provincial results equal a seat here or else half of nova scotia should be too close to call if not even ndp and that is not the case at all. i agree that the ndp will be more competitive here than usual. but after looking at last elections results since each party was so low and casey did so well, the winner here will be whoever manages to get the most of the previous voters who supported Bill Casey .
    09 10 06 Top Can Inc.
    38.112.12.110
    Now that a by-election has been called in this riding, along with 3 others in BC and QC, I'm predicting this riding returning to the Tory fold. The Casey landslide in 08 was a fluke due to Casey's presence on the ballot. With Casey gone, the riding's going back to its roots. Scott Armstrong was a former Casey aide and thus knows the community, unlike the guy who ran for the Tories last time. However, the Tory vote may not be as high due to some lingering resentment of how Casey was treated and the apparent new rise of the NDP in the area. The Cons may win with about 40% of the vote, but the Grits and NDP may end up splitting the rest of the votes.
    09 10 05 Smok Wawelski
    69.159.65.151
    Ok, here is where my own political bias comes in to the point where it may cloud my judgment, but take it for what it's worth:
    Expect a strong showing from Christan Heritage Party Leader Jim Hnatiuk. Jim is a resident of the riding, and a good fit in this socially conservative region. The CHP is canada's 6th largest party, with about 6000 members nationally, and they are going to place a lot of chips on Mr Hnatiuk's candidacy here.
    I still think the odds favour the establishment party's candidate, but expect a very strong showing from the CHP. I don't think the NDP will win it, since the only time the riding fell out of Conservative hands in the last 50 years was 1993 when Diane Brushett sneaked past Bill Casey by 2500 votes in a disastrous year for the PCs, and where the Reform vote would have pushed casey ahead to a very comfortable win, which is hat happened in 1997 when things returned to normal. While Casey was re-elected as an independent, he was still for all intents and purposes a conservative (note the small c).
    09 10 03 Gone Fishing
    64.231.145.16
    It strikes me that this is the only by-election seat that is actually presenting an opportunity for voters to opine the government record and even that is a bit of a stretch. The fact is Bill Casey was a Conservative before being kicked out / jumped ship.
    The Conservative candidate was a token at best in 2008.
    Like no where else in Canada Nova Scotians vote for the candidate not the party so if anyone local can weigh in on those who have thrown their hat in the ring I lean gtoward their assessment. That said this riding would have to be crazy to not want a seat in a strong minority government if no stars are out there.
    09 10 03 David Y.
    96.30.161.46
    The NDP have nominated Mark Austin in C.C.M.V., who apparently was approached by two other parties to be their candidate, but he decided on the New Democrats as the best party to contest the by-election.
    A 50-year old wild blueberry farmer, grandson of a Springhill coal miner, Austin has a masters degree in International Law of Human Rights from the University of Strasbourg.
    With a quality candidate, plus the recent provincial success of the Nova Scotia NDP, we may be looking at some more history here when the by-election is called.
    09 09 30 Moriarty
    138.73.70.34
    I'm giving this seat to the NDP because of a few things:
    Soft NDP support here, with paper candidates and no visible campaign, is around 12-15%, this is without an organized canvass, sign campaign, and commnications. In the provincial riding of Cumberland North, a bit of organization took the NDP support from 14-40%. People here want to vote NDP, but the party hasn't given them a reason to. Now they will.
    The Liberal camp is in disarray after the provincial vote, quite a few organizers/supporters came over to the NDP camp in all 5 of the provinical ridings. The Liberals also suffer, once again, from a leadership deficit. Oh yes, and the Liberal candidate has also already proved that he's a loose cannon: publically sabre-rattling about how he wants an election now.
    Anti-Harper sentiment is high in NS, the Conservatives don't stand a chance in a byelection. Perhaps in a General Election, with the momentum of the central campaign, they might eke out a win. But Armstrong on his own in a byelection will do poorly. Tories around here also suffer from the impression that canvassing and talking to voters isn't necessary for a win. I don't expect that to change.
    The main populations centres: Amherst and Truro, are solidly NDP.
    Due to an influx of experienced outside organizers during the provincial campaign, the NDP kept good records of their support in this riding for the first time. That means that they can merely pick up the phone and call Johnny Q and say ?Hey Johnny, you supported/donated/volunteered/took a sign for our provinical candidate, would you like to do the same for our federal candidate?? 9 times out of 10, Johnny's going to say yes, and may even volunteer to go put up Suzie's sign and drive Jane to the campaign office so she can drop off a cheque. This type of ?out of the gate? organization will create the momentum for a win.
    Winning the three provincial ridings and putting up a good fight in the other two was part of a long game for the NDP.
    The central party will likely committ resources (cash, outside organizers etc.) to this campaign, and just having a candidate nominated before the starter pistol will go a long way.
    There is also the minor, but possibly instrumental fact, that the Greens have taken a solid credibility hit out here. With May's sudden jump out west, and the provinical Greens bumbling in the provincial campaign (admitting to the public that candidates in every riding is all about the money) as well as not filing their Elections NS paperwork on time, people will be questioning whether their progressive vote belongs with the Greens.
    The old superstition:?this is Tory country? has been disproved, and will be again in about 10 weeks when this is all over.
    To sum up:
    NDP win with plurality of 35-43%
    Conservatives Second
    Liberals Third
    09 09 28 Nick J Boragina
    198.96.35.219
    This is info submitted regarding a possible by-election in the riding, should the Federal election not take place...
    Cumberland?Colchester?Musquodoboit Valley
    Bill Casey was the longtime MP for the area, who resigned to become a lobbyist. Casey had held the riding since 1988, with one interruption, the 1993 term. Casey, however, came within inches of winning the riding even in that election. Casey is an interesting story, first elected as a Progressive Conservative, Casey ended up in Harper's Conservative Party, before being thrown out of it for voting against the Budget. Casey won the 2008 election with a shocking 69% of the vote, beating the official NDP candidate at 12%, the Tory at 9% and the Liberal at 8%. The 2006 election is perhaps a better refernece point, it saw the Tories win with 52%, beating the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 21%. In 2004, the Tories took 50%, to the Liberals 26%, and the NDP's 19%. 2000 saw Casey, as the PC Candidate, win 48%, compared to the Liberals 27%, the Alliances 13% and the NDPs 12%. In 1997 we saw the PCs at 44%, the Liberals at 26%, the NDP at 14%, and Reform at 14%. The ?Long Story Short? is that this is a strong traditionally Tory riding. The only question, then, is how angry its voters are with the Conservative Party. The NDP is on the rise here, with the Liberals managing between 24% and 27% in the recent past. This is good news for the Tories, in that the anti-CPC vote will be split. The problem then comes from the possibility that there are enough angry voters to actually elect one of those candidates, and if that happens it is truly unknown weather that would be the Liberal or the New Democrat. With the recent provincial election, however, I'd say the NDP has the best shot at winning if the Tories lose. I also say, however, that the Tories will not lose.
    09 09 12 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    I can see the NDP being second here in two consecutive elections; maybe a surprisingly strong second, now. I can't see them winning unless Casey comes out and endorses them. And all the murmurs strike me as partisan-honeymoon opportunism born of byelection/open-seat prospects + the Dexter landslide. I could be wrong, but...
    09 09 10 Nick J Boragina
    198.96.35.219
    I'm going to go with the flow here and project a Tory win. The numbers here are quite deceptive. This riding, provincially and federally, has been hit with strong right of centre Independent candidacy. One of the most 'Blue' ridings in the province went Orange last time, and that candidate managed to beat out both the official and unofficial provincial Tory.
    The reality, however, is that Fage and Casey are stories on to themselves. What happened here in 2008 and provincially in 2009 will not translate to federally 2009. The Tories should take this riding back fairly easily, but I would not be surprised if the NDP does make a strong showing.
    09 09 08 Phoenix
    99.251.230.35
    The NDP may have made significant gains here provincially, but federal politics is a whole different ball game. If federal results mirrored provincial results, then the Liberals would have finished third in Nova Scotia in the past FOUR federal elections - in fact, they finished first.
    As for this particular riding - the NDP has never been more than a rump here; they'd need a star candidate and heavy attention from the federal party to take it. I'm not sure what names have been floated for the Dippers in this riding, but I'm sure that the federal NDP has bigger fish to fry than a longshot riding like this one.
    Now that Casey's gone, I expect that the Conservatives will take this riding back without much of a fight. The Atlantic Accord fiasco wasn't particularly detrimental to the Tories outside of Newfoundland, and Casey's victory was more of a personal one, rather than a flip of the bird to the federal Conservatives. They may not get a Bill Casey-sized margin, but it won't be particularly close.
    09 09 08 Observer
    89.180.225.193
    This will be much closer than many people think. Harper Conservatives were never strong in Atlantic Canada or New Scotia. The NDP provincial government is giving the federal NDP a big boost. For the moment I am not saying the NDP is going to win because I don't know who the candidates are but no incumbency puts this riding in TCTC.
    09 09 05 David Y.
    24.215.109.165
    I wouldn't be so quick to put this riding back into the Conservative fold.
    Compare the voting results from the 2008 federal election to the June 9th, 2009 provincial election:
    2008 2009
    PC 3493 14254
    NDP 4874 14880
    LIB 3344 5821
    GR 550 714
    IND. 27303 2164
    Instead of returning to the traditional voting patterns, a tremendous shift occurred in the provincial election.
    Ridings like this one, South Shore-St. Margaret's, and even Central Nova can no longer be automatically considered 'safe' Conservative seats.
    09 09 03 Acadien
    204.50.205.242
    I very much doubt the Coservatives will hold this seat after Mr. Casey's very popular defection. In fact, aside from MacKay, I doubt the Cons will elect anyone in Nova Scotia, and even Elmer's son, with the poor memory of which corporate directorships he holds, is no sure thing
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    24.222.12.42
    With the retirement Casey this riding will revert to its traditional Progressive Conservative/Conservative routes. The riding has only gone Liberal once in the 13 elections and that was in 1993 with the collapse of the PC vote.
    09 08 20 R.O.
    209.91.149.133
    The big question here is if we see a by-election or not , thats really a big factor here and without knowing that makes it pretty hard to come to a solid prediction at this time. so far the conservatives have nominated Scott Armstrong a descent candidate , liberals have yet to decide yet but previous candidate Tracy Parsons is in the running and the ndp are seen as having momemtum in Nova Scotia after the provincial election but have yet to say who there candidate is going to be and have never really won this riding historically. and its also hard to tell what kind of impact Bill Caseys legacy is going to have on any future vote here and if that will hurt or help any of the parties.



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