Prediction Changed
09:12 11/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bernard, Joel E.
Casey, Bill
New Democratic
Olsson, Karen
Parsons, Tracy
Simpson, Rick

Bill Casey

2006 Result:
Bill Casey **
Gary Richard
Margaret Sagar
N. Bruce Farrell
Rick Simpson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
The surprise in this race may be the NDP who seem to be polling at 27% to Casey's 30% to the CPC 20% in this riding. Look for a Casey win with a surprisingly close NDP second.
08 09 27 JaneyC
Re: A.S.'s comparison to Pat Nowlan. There is just one HUGE problem with the comparison. Pat ran as an Ind. in 1993 when the Conservatives held on to just two seats - Saint John and Jean Charest's Sherbrooke area riding. The reverse is true in this election - the Conservatives are on a roll and the Liberals are losing. I am not being partisan here- The Globe and Mail, which of course thinks the Maritimes does not exist, claims he Grits have lost all 45 battleground ridings to either the Cons or the NDP.
And Nowlan did not run on such an important and highly publicized issue as the Atlantic Accord.
No, there is NO analogy here whatsoever.
Bill Casey will be elected ' by a large margin!
08 09 15 Maritimer
Bill Casey will hold this seat by a wide margin. The Conservative is not even from the area, look for the Liberals/NDP to fight over second place.
08 09 12 Calev
I believe that the Cons deliberately nominated a weak candidate because they still want Casey elected. Its like Bernie Sanders US Senator from Vermont ran as an independent but caucuses with the Dems so they do not run a candidate for Senate in Vermont. They get the seat but without the cost!
08 09 10 RJ
The Tory choice of candidate here says it all. Has Joel Bernard ever even been to Nova Scotia, let alone Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley? Casey is going to win this by a landslide. I could actually see the Liberal coming a distant second.
08 09 10 PY
There aren't any indications on his website that Casey won't run, so you can stick a fork in Tracy Parsons. She's also done here.
08 09 10 Brian A
Damian beat me to it. As soon as I picked up the paper yesterday and saw a Conservative from New Brunswick was parachuted in to face Casey, I thought, ‘Isn't it nice how the Conservatives have wrapped up this riding in a pretty box with a nice bow and handed it to Bill Casey as an early Christmas present.’ Casey hold. No question at all.
08 09 09 Damian P.
As soon as the Tories announced their candidate would be parachuted in from New Brunswick, this one was pretty much over. Bill Casey should be re-elected easily.
08 09 05 Biz
This is the old Stanfield riding. Only went Grit once since WWII, if I recall correctly, and that was in the Tory implosion of the early 1990s. Casey is exceedingly popular and ought to hold the riding if he's healthy enough to run. If not, I'll call the Tories in a nail-biter over the Liberals. I don't see voters looking too long at the NDP.
08 09 05 Urban Farmer
Some have suggested that the Tory vote will split between Casey and the Tory candidate allowing the Liberals or NDP to win here. However, Casey's departure from Harper is so well known that I think the people in this riding will side with him overwhelmingly.
08 08 18 Mad Caper
There is no doubt as is being said in other posts on this riding that the outcome of this riding depends largely on the health of Bill Casey. If he is healthy enough to run i think he will still hold this seat as an Independant, if not i think this seat could swing to either the Liberals or the New Democrats. This seat has been Liberal before and there is a portion of the Tory vote that will shift to the Liberals. The wild card in this race is the N.D.P. who could sneak in to win this seat if they can cash in on the popularity of the Provincial N.D.P.. The Tory vote is going to split no matter what happens due to the shameless way that Casey was treated by Harper and his band of merry men. For now i will say a Casey hold pending his decision on whether to run or retire.
08 08 16 PY
Running for the Liberals will be Tracy Parsons, the former leader of the Progressive Canadian Party. She's a bit of a wildcard, but in bringing in others who've been highly involved with the Progressives into the Liberal Party, at the least she's sincere. However, if Bill Casey decides to run again as an Independent, her campaign will likely die before it ever begins as I doubt Casey's support will flag much amongst his constituents.
08 02 11 R.O.
No he will not be running for the senate as nova scotia pc’s have turned down the idea of having senate elections , which is really too bad but not surprising. And as he’s been mp since 1988 minus few years from 93-97, he is very well know in the riding and maybe could pull off an independent win. Unless any the other parties are able to find a star candidate to run against him but in this part of Nova Scotia this is less likely then in say maybe Halifax. Unsure what candidates are planning to run here, don’t think conservatives have found one yet or other parties as well.
08 02 11 Brian A
Bill's health isn't the best right now, especially after his prostate surgery, but all indications are that he's going to run again. If that's the case then, regardless of Pat Nowlan's situation way back when, Casey's going to be re-elected. He's a great MP and a very strong representative. He's my MP and, despite my own party affiliation, I think the riding is lucky to have him.
08 02 06 A. Lewis
‘Casey has been unclear as to his plans for the election. Should he run again as an ‘Independant PC’, then he will get re-elected.’ Yup. No other way it can go, if his health holds up.
If he doesn't run, due to health or just not having the fight in him any more, it will help MacKay and Keddy a lot since the Accord issue will be out of sight. In that case a Conservative could win here, but then so could a Liberal. Or even the NDP, the party that's rising provincially.
While Casey intends to run, it's his. He has immense support here and it is widely shared across NS. In fact now that Rodney MacDonald has floated the idea of electing the next Senator from NS, Casey could go for that and win. It appeals to the Nova Scotian sense of humour to force Harper to appoint Casey to the Senate.
08 01 26 A.S.
In judging Bill Casey's chances, nobody's yet invoked the nearby case of longtime PC MP Pat Nowlan: expelled from the caucus for voting against the GST, he ran as an Independent in 1993 and landed in third, barely below 20% and barely below the PC candidate. (NB: their combined vote would have topped the Grits by less than 100 votes!) Then again, compared to Casey's grassroots-folk-hero buzz, Nowlan was more of a sour-grapes case...
07 11 10 RJ
Casey will win as an Independent, reasonably easily too. He's become somewhat of a folk hero in this riding, according to friends and family back home. The Tory candidate (whoever it may be) will still have a solid base vote of people who will always vote Tory regardless of everything else, but Casey will get enough of his voters last time, combined with Liberal and perhaps NDP votes, to pull it off.
07 10 30 Ancastarian
I believe that Casey will take this as an independent. While his riding association has split, he is still the most Popular MP in Nova Scotia. Secondly, the fact that Harper will have to appoint a candidate in this riding, coupled with the Conservatives down across Nova Scotia means that they will be hard pressed to offer a significant challenge to him. Third, people like Maverick MP's, and Casey is now a Maverick more than ever. Chalk this up to bill Casey, Harper was naive to block his riding association's attempts to being him back to the Tories. The Conservatives just gave away one of their strongest seats in a region where they need every vote they can get.
07 10 22 T.V.
Casey is exactly the kind of candidate and this is exactly the kind of riding for an Independent candidate to win. He has deep local roots, the Tories are doing poorly in Atlantic Canada, and it's a close-knit rural riding which would deeply resent having a candidate imposed on them from Ottawa. Whoever Harper appoints will come in third at best.
07 10 11 Daniel
Well, it appears that Casey will not be welcomed back into the CPC fold by the Prime Minister, and has now said in interviews that he plans to run as an independent candidate. I think he'll probably be re-elected if he runs, but I wouldn't rule the possibility of a CPC win here, either.
07 10 06 Brian A
Being that I now live in this riding, and being that a fall election seems extremely likely, I feel it's my place to comment. Casey has been unclear as to his plans for the election. Should he run again as an ‘Independant PC’, then he will get re-elected. If he runs as a Conservative, then he will get re-elected. Basically, if Casey is on the ballot, he keeps his seat. If he doesn't run again, then I'd still put my chips on the riding staying blue unless the Liberals manage a strong local to run for them.
07 06 23 Tom
This one is easy. If Casey runs again, he wins it in a walk (even, or perhaps especially, if he joins the Liberals). If Casey doesn't run again, the Liberals should win in a close race; Casey has a lot of personal votes, and a lot of people are very angry. I expect Casey to pull a Garth and join the Liberals sometime before the election, so that makes the call even easier.
07 06 12 Boy Waffle
It's not clear whether Bill Casey, already 62, will want to run for
re-election. But assuming for now that he does, I think he would win easily. He'll have the backing the provincial party, at least unofficially, which probably counts for more than the backing of the federal party. I note that he has sneaked the word ?progressive? back into his official designation, which is probably more of a nod to premier Rodney MacDonald than to Brian Mulroney or Joe Clark.
I also don't think it's particularly fair to bring up 1993: Casey lost his seat by less than three thousand votes, which is not terribly bad under any circumstances, let alone those of 1993. Since 1997, he has slowly but steadily increased his share of the popular vote from a comfortable plurality to a comfortable majority (43.63%,48.49%,50.49%,52.04%).
Based on the performance of the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance in 1993, 1997 and 2000, I doubt that an official CP candidate would be able to pull more than 6000 votes away from Casey. With a lead last time of 12000 votes over the liberals, that shouldn't cause him to lose much sleep.
07 06 11 M. Lunn
With Casey now expelled from the caucus anything from a Tory win if he is readmitted or does not run again, to an independent win if he runs as an independent to a Liberal win if he later changes his mind and defects to the Liberals or splits the vote perfectly as an independent. Lets see how this plays out before calling it.
07 06 07 binriso
Hold the Phone on this one, let?s see what happens once we get the Casey situation sorted out. TCTC for now depending on what he chooses to do next election.
07 06 06 Nick J Boragina
This is not a ?Casey? riding. I reference the 1993 results for that one. If Casey is re-admitted to the caucus, he'll win, if not he'll split the vote enough for the Liberals to win.
07 06 06 Porter
This is no longer a Conservative riding but a Bill Casey riding. If he runs again as an independent it is his to hold.
Also, with his standing up for Atlantic Canada against the government look for Conservative fortunes in the entire Atlantic region to take a big hit. Fellow Nova Scotians MacKay and Keddy are in for some potential trouble with the odds for each just getting noticably worse.
07 06 05 Ryan N
WHOA! After Casey's vote against the federal Conservative budget, and expulsion from that party, I'd definitely consider placing this back into the TCTC column.
He was originally elected in '88, suffered defeat in '93 to a Liberal candidate, re-elected in '97, and has since served the PC/CPC ever since.
He is only looking out for NS's best interest on the 'Atlantic Accord.'
Like Joe Comuzzi (LIB) in 'Thunder Bay-Rainy River', who also voted against party lines on the budget, this expulsion will not benefit the party that they were previously associated with. Basically, it's a slap in the face!
07 03 28 M. Lunn
Even though the budget was bad news for Nova Scotia, Casey's margin of victory is simply too large to overcome. The only question is will the budget be damaging enough to push him below the 50% mark. If he falls below the 50% mark, I would say this is a rebuke of the Tories since almost half the population will vote Tory no matter who they put up.
07 03 25 ancastarian
There is no chance Casey will lose this. He nearly held it in 1993, and survived the lowest showing ever recorded for the P.C. party under Clark. He'll coast through this one!
07 03 23 Daniel
This is Casey Country; if only one riding in the province were to go Conservative, this would be it.
07 03 21 Brian Appel
There's no sense wasting any more time leaving the result here as unknown. Whether the election comes in the spring, summer or fall, Bill Casey is winning here. Conservative riding + popular red tory incumbent + rising Conservative fortunes = Bill Casey holding the seat for as long as he'd like it. Of course, he's getting kind of old, so there's a chance he may not seek again. In that case...still a Conservative hold.

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