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North Nova

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:36 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:41 PM 14/03/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Dianne Brushett
Bill Casey
PC Party/Parti PC:
Jack Moors
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Sheila Richardson
Margaret Sagar

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Cumberland-Colchester (93.6%)
Bill Casey
Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore (6.4%)
Peter Stoffer

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,984 47.38%
10,563 26.36%
5,247 13.10%
5,226 13.04%
48 0.12%

(208/208 polls, 61689/61689 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore
(25/218 polls, 4235/63567 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Robert
Email: [hidden]
This riding will be a lot closer than people think. The deciding factor is Stephen Harper. Yeah, Bill is quite popular personally. You can't deny that. People here, though, are extremely unhappy with Harper. Even Casey didn't think he was the best leader for party, much less the country. Casey is so uncomfortable with his leader's views that he skipped a televised public debate in his hometown. Just imagine an long-serving incumbant skipping a debate in the town he has lived in his whole life. That's a strong message to voters. Brushett will most likely hold the majority of the Liberal vote from past elections, and likely receive a lot of anti-Harper votes. Take my word, this will not be a 6,000-8,000 vote victory. It will be very close.
15/06/04 Buck
Email: gordon.fullerton@smu.ca
This is probably the safest Conservative seat in the country, east of Alberta, and that is saying something!
12/06/04 E. MacKenzie
Email: [hidden]
North Nova is one of the most conservative ridings east of Ontario, and the incumbent Bill Casey will win handily. I can't imagine how anyone would think Brushett would win in 2004, when the Conservative vote is united and the Liberals are clearly on the ropes nationally, after losing in 1997 and 2000, when the reverse was true.
02/06/04 Casey by 6,000
Bill Casey will win this riding handily on June 28. He's personally very popular, and the Liberal challenger lacks credibility when she speaks about representing the riding. She was the Member from 1993 to 1997 and saw the construction of the only Trans Canada highway in the country with a toll. She has a tendency toward nasty campaign tactics, and I don't think people respond well to them. Conversely, Mr. Casey is widely perceived as a strong defender of the region, and the negative momentum plaguing the Liberals' national campaign certainly won't help their chances in North Nova. I predict Casey will win by somewhere between 5,000 and 8,000 votes.
27/05/04 Nathan
Email: [hidden]
People are foolish for assuming this will be an easy win for Casey. Casey may in the end win, but it will be very close. Casey is not a 'real fighter,' and he is not that popular outside Amherst. He hasn't won because of his personal appeal, but because a lot of people in this riding would have voted for any Tory. Different story now.
The vote in this riding will be about Martin and Harper, and most people really don't like Harper. Whatever personal popularity Casey may have (which I don't think is much) isn't enough to offset the damage of having to run under Harper's leadership. I have heard about a lot of old PC's who are simply going to stay home on June 28 rather than support a nut like Harper.
Don't automatically assume all old PC's and Alliance supporters will automatically support the "new" party. Ipsos polls taken right before the 2000 Election showed the combined support of the two right-wing parties at 35% in Atlantic Canada. The most recent poll shows that the new party has lost 40% of that support. At the same time, the Liberals went from 33% in 2000 to about 50% now. It's not hard to see that a lot of old PC's are supporting the Liberals.
This riding showed in 1993 what it will do to the Tories when they really don't like their leader. I predict Brushett will win. The Conservatives will bleed support to the Liberals, and a lot of old Tories simply won't vote. Casey is dreaming if he thinks he will get 18,000 votes again, even with a merged party. Bye bye Bill!
23/05/04 full
Email: [hidden]
Bill Casey is a real figher, very popular, and in an ultra conservative riding...he will win, but the question is..by how much? I predict by 15% over the Liberals!
23/05/04 C C
Email: [hidden]
This riding is as safe for the conservatives, as Mont Royale is for the Liberals in Quebec. In the provincial election just last year conservatives won with over 70% of the vote, expect to see potentially a slight drop with some NDP voters being brought into the riding but it should be offset with the Conservative Party being 1 instead of 2.
13/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
no change in prediction, but I wanted to add this tidbit:
The last liberal to sit here was in 1993. A combined Ref-PC vote would have won though. Casey has been MP since 1988.
going back, following the 2 ridings that made up this one, both voted solidly PC. going all the way back to the 2 ridings that made up those 2 ridings, we find this:
in 1953, in CUMBERLAND, a liberal won by about 500 votes. In 1935, a similar event. Another liberal victory in 1921... the last time this riding was liberal was before 1904, 100 years ago.
COLCHESTER--HANTS voted liberal in 1953 too, then again in 40 and 35.
This is a blue riding.
01/05/04 Nathan Laird
Email: [hidden]
I believe Liberal Red will once again flow through this riding. Casey has had a lot of support in the past, but the majority of Conservatives in this riding were Red Tories and they will have a hard time voting for Stephen Harper as PM. Casey's strong support for Stronach illustrates that even he didn't believe Harper was a good choice for PM. Joe Clark's recent comments about Harper have only reinforced the notion that the Conservative Party is really the Alliance party with yet another new name. Clark has a lot more credibility in this riding than Harper ever will. Brushett is well-known and respected throughout the riding, and a lot of people want to see what Paul Martin can do with a mandate. After seven years on the outside, this riding needs someone who will be part of the government and have the PM's ear. It may be close, but people will support Brushett and Martin rather than Casey and Harper.
17/03/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
The riding next to mine; easy, easy Conservative hold. Probably Nova Scotia's most conservative area. The Grits are running Dianne Brushett yet again; she won in 93 but lost in 97 and 2000, so even bigger chance that Casey will be returned to Ottawa.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Casey will win this riding. Traditioanlly, it is the most conservative riding in atlantic canada, and it will remain so this election, regardless of the new party. I expect a 50%+1 or more victory here.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
Conservative incumbent Bill Casey may be the only Conservative in Nova Scotia to hang on to their seat. I would venture that this is the safest Conservative seat in the province, judging by the 2000 results. It will be a close fight with the Liberals, but Casey should be able to pull it off.

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