Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 08:47:00

Constituency Profile


Bevan-Baker, Peter

Easter, Wayne

Jackson, Rita

Ogilvie, Tim

Hon. Wayne Easter

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • malpeque (70/76 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 ScottPEI2011
    Wayne Easter will win this riding comfortably by 8 - 10 points. There is a strong anti-Harper sentiment throughout the Island which is hurting the Conservative campaigns and the Liberal Party is still the only viable alternate for Island voters. Also Easter's national rural leadership exposure will benifit this veteran MP. Ironically, Harper's constant targeting of Easter has probably helped him solidify Malpeque for Liberal MP.
    11 04 24 SC
    Easter tends to run the closest of the incumbents (at least since Lawrence MacAulay went from being perpetually endangered to unassailable), but he should be fine for another term.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    The Tories would love to have this considering Wayne Easter is one of the biggest thorns in their side. He is especially hated by Prairie Tories as he has been a staunch defender of the Canadian Wheat Board which is widely despised by the right in the Prairies. While a non-issue here, you can be sure the national campaign will throw tons of resources at trying to win this. However, the fact he has survived many challenges since 1993, it would be silly to count him out. I would give Wayne Easter a 60% chance of holding this at this point, but once I see a PEI specific poll then we will have a better idea of where the race is.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    Think the CPC can do well here, voters in this riding will be tired of the same old rhetoric of Wayne Easter and will vote him out.
    09 11 18 R.O.
    The race here is interesting and its too early to say for sure who might win this one . as although it has been liberal since 1993 there has been alot of close races here and Wayne Easters margin of victory been geting smaller. but its unclear who the conservatives will run as a candidate here , as i read an article a month or so back where it mentioned Mary Crane wasn't going to be running here next time. so they will need to find a new candidate before the next election and so far one potential candidate has come forward that being Tim Ogilvie. it also be interesting to see if the riding prefers a high profile yet partisan opposition mp like Easter or wants to have an mp in government like Gail Shea. but obvivously the liberals only real advantage here is incumbentcy as it helps to have a longtime mp in a rural riding like this one.
    09 09 07 pollwerker
    The Liberal vote bottomed out last time and the Tories were still 1000 votes short, and 1000 votes may be nothing in urban Ontario, but its a big hurdle to overcome in PEI where you're talking about increasing your vote by 20%.
    09 09 03 mgmartin@connect.carleton.ca
    This one is TOO CLOSE TO CALL, the margin was 1000 votes short. This riding will be targeted for the Conservative Majority push.
    09 09 01 JJ
    The prediction needs to be changed to TCTC. The Liberal incumbent only won by a 5% margin. If the Conservatives were to pick up another seat in PEI, it would be Malpeque. Definitely TCTC.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    This was where the Tories finished strongest on the island, behind Shea's win in Egmont. You can bet they want to make a play for it this time. Look for Senator Duffy to spend a lot of time here.

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