Prediction Changed
11:46 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Malpeque
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Wayne Easter

2006 Result:
Wayne Easter **
9779
George Noble
6708
George Marshall
1983
Sharon Labchuk
901

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 02 25
24.81.18.126
Not a safe riding for the Liberals especially in the event of a likely Conservative re-election (nationally). True, Wayne Easter won with 50% of the vote in 2006, but the CPC candidate had a strong 35% showing. The 15% vote gap will be an uphill battle to overcome, but nevertheless is achievable with a strong Conservative national campaign as well as a strong local campaign.
*Too close to call right now.*
08 02 19 R.O.
209.91.149.215
Was looking thru the political history of this riding , was surprised that it was mostly a pc riding before it went liberal back in 88 and the pc vote in 2000 is higher than cpc vote in 2 more recent elections. That being said the conservatives are still way ahead of ndp and only party close enough to the liberals to pose any challenge here. Last time Mary Crane ran here she came within 3000 votes , which isn’t much in other ridings but which is a lot in a small riding like this. But Wayne Easter is no longer the high profile cabinet minister he once was, but being a longtime incumbent is an advantage here. Even so Mary Crane is a good candidate for the conservatives here and it will be interesting race.
08 01 12 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Being a rural/suburban Charlottetown fringe sort of riding, Malpeque's probably got the most ambiguous identity of PEI's Federal Four. And depending on who's running, it's probably no more or no less likely to fall to the Conservatives (or anyone else) than the rest.
07 04 05 Daniel
156.34.89.54
I'm not sure that the Liberals are any less 'regional' than the Tories, Nick, but I'm quite sure that, as long as Easter is MP, ths is one 'region' that will continue to vote Liberal (unless Harper's fortunes substantially improve in this part of the country).
07 04 02 Nick J Boragina
74.99.228.118
The Liberals have done well in PEI for a reason, they are moderate. The tories are far more right-wing, but also far more regional and pro-western. There might be some PEI ridings willing to go tory, but this is not one of them.



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