7:59 PM 23/05/2005

Prediction Changed
11:12 PM 03/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Wayne Easter
Sharon Labchuk
George Marshall
George Noble

Hon. Wayne Easter

2004 Result:
Wayne Easter
Mary Crane
Ken Bingham
Sharon Labchuk

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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23 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
Though the Cons did well here in 2004 and the Liberal incumbent is somewhat washed up, I don't expect we'll see a Con breakthrough.
13 05 05 RP.
Here's how the Guardian describes George Noble, the conservative candidate for Malpeque (who won the nomination on the 3rd ballot, ahead of Mary Crane by just a few votes):
"Noble recently retired after 25 years working with the provincial government first as a correctional officer and then as a recreation program co-ordinator. He moved to P.E.I. in 1978 from Scarborough, Ont."
My estimation is, no roots, no profile. If he's going to go anywhere, he'll need a strong national campaign and a strong NDP showing (btw, it doesn't like it'll be Bingham for the NDP again). I no longer see any good reason for Wayne to lose, but I'm still not making a prediction. Noble could prove to be like George Proud, whom nobody expected to win for the Liberals in 1988 in Charlottetown. Islanders know what I'm talking about.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
This is actually the first prediction I'm making this year that I'm not 100% certain about. The tories are targeting this riding, and rightfully so, it's where they did best last time. If the NDP runs Bingham again (the reason I left the party, and the reason many don’t vote for the party) it will help the Liberals, but if they actually run someone reasonable, like James Rodd, Leo Cheverie, or even Gary Robichaud, it could take just enough Liberal votes for a tory to slip in on. Right now, the "feeling" I'm getting from political watchers on the Island is that the tories won’t win anywhere, but that if the liberals run into trouble, this could be it. If any riding is to go tory on the Island, it's this one, but I just dont see it happening.
07 05 05 RP.
Wayne is not as popular as he once was. The NDP in this riding is more organized that it ever has been, so I expect them to gain some votes. If a credible conservative comes forward I'd give it to them.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
As with the other PEI ridings, this will go liberal again. In fact should Andy Mitchell lose his seat next election, which is quite possible, but the liberals still get re-elected, Wayne Easter will probably be the next Agriculture Minister.

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