Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 08:47:00

Constituency Profile


Arnold, Carl Anthony

Gallant, Guy

Robichaud, Jacquie

Shea, Gail

Hon. Gail Shea

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • egmont (86/86 Polls)
  • malpeque (1/76 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 24 SC
    This is traditionally the most Liberal seat on the Island, and I've heard people say that Guy Gallant will run closer than you might think, but Shea should still win. There'd need to be more of a national trend against the Tories for her to lose.
    11 04 20 Teddy Boragina
    Conservative polling numbers in the Atlantic are not looking good for holding this seat... However, a strong candidate can hold such a seat. The question becomes less of math and more of how strong the Candidate is. Since it's been over a decade since I lived in this riding, I am not the one to say.
    11 04 19 R.O.
    An update to past posts ,well i admit Gail Shea won by a very small margin in 08 its clear being a high profile cabinet minister can swing some votes and tories have usually done better in close ridings in the next election. where is liberal support tends to drop a few % once mp's or high profile candidates leave and get replaced with new ones which is what happened here. i think its much more likely the tories gain a seat in PEI than they are to lose one. and most nationwide polls have extremely high margins of error for east coast so they make it very difficult to predict most individual races especially a small rural riding in PEI. Gail Shea has also been campaign in other ridings on PEI for conservatives from what i have read so i don't think she is at all worried about her chances this election. she is also only conservative mp on PEI so with cpc being well ahead in polls voters will likely want to have someone representing them in whats likely to be re-elected tory government.
    11 04 18 Nord Polisci
    The Liberals have now pulled ahead in Atlantic Canada polls and this riding is one of the key reasons why. The high EI rate combined with the popular Liberal candidate could make this a swing back to the Liberal column. Not for sure yet but definitely one to watch now!
    11 04 02 Marco Ricci
    The Liberals now have a candidate, Guy Gallant, who recently was executive assistant to the PEI Government House Leader. He was nominated on March 30.
    12 MLA's and former MP Joe McGuire attended. As others have said, considering how close this riding was in 2008, it's surprising that the Liberals have taken so long to find a candidate here.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    Considering Gail Shea has been a good MP and the fact many Islanders want at least one member on the government side which will most likely be the Tories, I would say this is the Tories to lose. However, the Liberals came within 55 votes so I wouldn't write them off just yet. After the debates the Tories still have a strong lead nationally, then I will call this for them, however if the Liberals pose a serious challenge to the Tories nationally, they could take this.
    11 03 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Liberals still don't have a candidate? They're dropping the ball on what should be a possible pick up. Gail keeps it unless things change with the Liberals.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    This stays Conservative. Gail Shea has been a pretty good cabinet minister and she'll be PEI's rep in the federal cabinet again should the CPC's be re-elected.
    11 03 25 Aniconist
    Still no other candidate and the writ drops tomorrow. Robert Morrissey, who has been playing will you won't you will you won't you for a good long time, has finally turned down the Liberal candidacy, and it's looking like the Libs will run Gallant's executive assistant, memorably named Gallant, against Minister Shea. Tory hold.
    10 03 30 Marco Ricci
    One casualty of the Helena Geurgis airport scandal could be this riding. If enough voters in Prince Edward Island stay angry about her outburst, they could decide to take it out on Gail Shea - the only Conservative on the Island.
    10 02 06 R.O.
    When considering the level of liberal support historically on the east coast they might have a shot at taking this one back if it wasn't for Gail Shea who's quickly becoming the highest profile conservative on Prince Edward Island. and to update my prediction i still think she has the advantage here for a number of reasons. one she is minister of fisheries and oceans and represents a riding where such a post is of great importance and such gives the locals a reason to keep her around. secondly she remains personally popular and the peta pie incident only further proves that as they only pie high profile and popular politicans. as i think i remember hearing that Jean Charest and Ralph Klein has been pied before although i'm not sure by who but it happens more often then we realise. it should also be mentioned that there is a significant incumbent advantage in this riding historically and on the east coast in general. and so any incumbent has somewhat of an advantage over there challengers in this part of the country. Also her liberal opponent from 2008 is not running again so it remains unclear who will run for them but they will be hard pressed to find anyone as high profile as her or there last candidate who i believe was a former premier.
    09 09 07 A.S.
    Re the ?sitting cabinet ministers? point, remember that the last Tory to represent Egmont--David MacDonald--was a sitting cabinet minister at the time he was defeated in 1980.
    09 09 07 pollwerker
    Sitting Cabinet Ministers are pretty hard to take down, especially in Atlantic Canada. I lean towards Shea to hold off a stiff challenge and win by a healthy margin.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Shea will hold on here. After winning a close race in '08, she'll have the incumbent's advantage. The Tories will work hard to keep this seat, and try to extend it into another win or two on the island. Look for Senator Duffy to spend a lot of time in the four PEI ridings in the next election.
    09 08 25 R.O.
    This riding was liberal for a longtime but is now held by conservative mp Gail Shea who is also minister of fisheries. well its likely to be listed as too close to call for a while and being targeted by the liberals as was the case during Ignatieff's recent visit to PEI and this riding. i'm going to make my prediction that Gail Shea holds this won even thought the last vote was very close i see her just being the kind of mp that gets re-elected and she hasn't really got into any trouble either during her first year as mp and cabinet minister.
    09 08 24 Nick J Boragina
    The answer to the question ‘who will win’ is the same as the answer to the question of is PEIslanders view their cabinet minister as a success or not. Has she been useful? Has she brought PEI issues to the table? Has she brought the government's attention to PEI?
    PEI tends to vote for ‘Team Red’ and ‘Team Blue’ and not Grit or Tory. The Conservatives victory here last time shows Islanders may be ready to view Harper as leader of ‘Team Blue’. If that is the case, they may well be able to hold this riding, and even gain others.

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