Prediction Changed
2:36 PM 08/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Lewis, Orville
Milligan, Keith
Ridlington, Rebecca
Shea, Gail

Hon. Joe McGuire

2006 Result:
Joe McGuire **
Edward Guergis
Regena Kaye Russell
Ron Matsusaki
Michael Nesbitt

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 R.O.
Wouldn’t rule out Gail Shea here as she is well known and has political experience. So does the liberal Keith Mulligan I admit. But being a vacant riding there is a much stronger chance it changes hands than the other pei ridings which are likely to stay liberal as there held by well known mp’s. Gail Shea could still pull off a win here but it will still be very close race in this riding.
08 10 09 RP.
I'm really surprised that it's being called red. Keith Milligan has no traction. And Harper has just announced that he's making ANOTHER campaign stop here (Monte Solberg was just here yesterday making a promise about upgrades at the Summerside track). Compare this to Dion, who spent a grand total 3 hours here, 2 of them on the bus to the Miscouche Legion. I say all this as a pretty much neutral observer (as between Lib/CPC), who happens to be on the ground here, not even Liberals think KM will win it.
08 10 09 SS
Surprised this was moved into Liberal territory. Recent provincial poll has Shea up by 4 % and it was announced this morning that the Feds will be looking to fix up or replace the Race tracks grandstand
08 10 08 JD
Why on earth have the people running this site made their prediction on this nail-biter so soon? I suppose they are real empiricists judging that Egmonts red roots will carry the day for Milligan. It is just somewhat baffling that after our (im from pei) provincial newspaper, ‘The Guardian’ released (two days ago) the only poll of the Federal election on PEI, which showed Gail Shea ahead of Milligan in Egmont, that the people who run this site would predict a Liberal victory.
I understand they have to predict the riding a some point, but honestly this one is so close that they should wait until Sunday/Monday.
I'll get off the fence and make my own prediction sometime Monday on this site.
08 10 07 RP.
CRA poll out today has Gail in the lead. Just confirms what everyone in the riding has known all along.
08 10 03
Spent August in/near this riding. Big news with the candidate withdrawal. Egmont/PEI could get a minor cabinet post now that the Conservative victory nationally is near certain. All the excuses to shift to Tory are there.
08 09 26 Adrena Lynn
I'll give this one a barely Liberal edge. Keith Mulligan was a former premier, and the Island's been predominantly Liberal for 20 years. I think on the 14th Mulligan takes this by 200 votes. And since PEI has such a small electorate, the percentage vote would probably be in the high 40s
08 09 12 JD
Instantly Guergis had an uphill battle because of his surname i.e. its not an island surname. People of Egmont could tell he was ‘from away’ that is a negative in a parochial society like PEI.
Gial Shea is a very strong candidate and though this riding has strong Liberal roots due to the non-incumbency factor this race is wide open. I'd give it right not %55-45 for Shea over Milligan just because Shea has been knocking on doors for well over 6 months and her campaign team has been ready and organized for that long as well.
Milligan can win to no doubt but he will have to be ready to be able to explain the Green Shift to all the farmers and fishermen in this riding.
TCTC right now but I think the Tories are slightly ahead early on.
08 09 08 whatever
I have to say that im not voting conservative for one reason. Mr Edward Guergis. He was their last candidate and I know for a fact they screwed him good and would not let him put his nomination papers in this time. I know him personally and he is a good man, honest and worked hard the last time around. He deserved the chance this time it was unfair and shows just what gail and the rest of them are all about.
08 09 08 Rick
Green Shift will kill the liberals in this riding. Farmers and Fishermen will rule the polls.
08 09 02 R.O.
One of the liberals former candidates Keith Mulligan is back in the running here but I wouldn?t say that by itself is enough to secure the riding after controversy caused by original candidates departure. And conservatives are actually running a serious candidate unlike in some previous elections. Another factor is if the conservatives remain in the lead some islanders might consider voting for someone to represent them in the government as Prince Edward Island is the only province without a single mp in the conservative government at this time. But the ridings liberal history remains a factor Gail Shea has to overcome although the conservatives took a similar riding under similar circumstances last election on the east coast that being Avalon. So its not totally impossible that they win here.
08 08 14 binriso
Couldn?t the Liberals just get Keith Milligan to run for them now? Even still, they had well over 50% of the vote here last time so even though there?s problems now, they should hold unless they get a bad candidate.
08 08 12 R.O.
Well a shocker liberal star candidate Robert Morrissey has dropped out of the race. He is saying he wants to return to the private sector but it leaves you wondering why someone who fought hard for this nomination would just give it up. there is speculation it was due to the unpopularity of dions green shift plan out east as well he was to face a strong conservative candidate in former mla Gail Shea. Even though this riding has a lot of liberal history but after these events moving it to too close to call might be an option. But I see some potential for the conservatives and Gail Shea is a strong candidate for them so with the uncertainly now facing the liberals here her chances of getting elected have increased significantly. But we do not know who the new liberal candidate will be or if they can find someone of the same profile or how much time this new one will get to prepare although the liberals are clearly in some trouble here.
08 08 08 RP.
Interesting news today about Bobby Morrissey dropping out as Liberal candidate here. This, after a hotly contested nomination battle. Fairly obvious that he saw the writing on the wall, Gail's a good candidate for CPC, he's got a dud for a leader and the Green Shift is going over like a lead balloon. Gail Shea has been out campaigning like a trooper, and anecdotally she was gaining a lot of quiet support from Liberals. Now she has this extra boost, and the field is totally empty except for her.
08 01 12 A.S.
It'd be strange if PEI's only Liberal riding in 1984 became its only Conservative riding a quarter century later--then again, Summerside mayor Basil Stewart earned, at 37.5%, the best PEI result and one of the 10 best in the country for the doomed Kim Campbell PCs in 1993. But it would really take a big wave of Maritime Harper forgiveness as well as Bob Ghiz backlash to knock this one out of the Grit column, even as an open seat...
07 11 30 R.O.
From what I have seen several high profile pc mla’s from Pat Binns former government want to run for the conservative nomination here including Gail Shea, Phillip Brown and Wilfred Arsenault. Sure this riding wasn’t that close last time but with a stronger conservative combined with a new liberal since mp isn’t running again. That will make for a much closer and competitive race. Without a doubt which ever of those 3 wins the nomination will be a much stronger candidate than last election. But this still is mostly liberal PEI but conservative are now government so too close to call for now.
07 11 04 SC
The Liberals have chosen Bobby Morrissey as their candidate; a better choice than Milligan, in my opinion, and his first ballot victory despite a late entry into the race shows his political skill. I think he'll win.
At the same time, the provincial PC party's disaster is the federal CPC party's gain, since the provincial defeat has shaken loose some good candidates for the CPC nomination; I think Shea will get the nomination (she and Morrissey represented the same riding at different time), and she'd be a great candidate, but I can't see her winning (if the federal party had some real momentum going, rather than the current deadlock, maybe).
07 04 10 JC
No Chance for the conservatives here, Keith Milligan the former premier is running, there is no way he's going to lose.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Joe McGuire may be retiring, but this is a very safe Liberal riding and has gone Liberal in every election since 1980, even during the 1984 Mulroney landslide. This will stay Liberal. The only interesting thing is due to the lack of incumbent, it may be the Tories strongest riding on the island, but they still won't win it.
07 04 02 Nick J Boragina
The Liberals have done well in PEI for a reason, they are moderate. The tories are far more right-wing, but also far more regional and pro-western. Normally this would be a Liberal Lock, but word is that McGuire will be leaving politics, and that could open the possibility for a local tory to run here and steal this riding away. While it's possible, I just dont see it.

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