Prediction Changed
11:45 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Egmont
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Joe McGuire

2006 Result:
Joe McGuire **
10288
Edward Guergis
5991
Regena Kaye Russell
1847
Ron Matsusaki
1005
Michael Nesbitt
219

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 01 12 A.S.
99.233.96.153
It'd be strange if PEI's only Liberal riding in 1984 became its only Conservative riding a quarter century later--then again, Summerside mayor Basil Stewart earned, at 37.5%, the best PEI result and one of the 10 best in the country for the doomed Kim Campbell PCs in 1993. But it would really take a big wave of Maritime Harper forgiveness as well as Bob Ghiz backlash to knock this one out of the Grit column, even as an open seat...
07 11 30 R.O.
209.91.149.99
From what I have seen several high profile pc mla’s from Pat Binns former government want to run for the conservative nomination here including Gail Shea, Phillip Brown and Wilfred Arsenault. Sure this riding wasn’t that close last time but with a stronger conservative combined with a new liberal since mp isn’t running again. That will make for a much closer and competitive race. Without a doubt which ever of those 3 wins the nomination will be a much stronger candidate than last election. But this still is mostly liberal PEI but conservative are now government so too close to call for now.
07 11 04 SC
24.215.88.234
The Liberals have chosen Bobby Morrissey as their candidate; a better choice than Milligan, in my opinion, and his first ballot victory despite a late entry into the race shows his political skill. I think he'll win.
At the same time, the provincial PC party's disaster is the federal CPC party's gain, since the provincial defeat has shaken loose some good candidates for the CPC nomination; I think Shea will get the nomination (she and Morrissey represented the same riding at different time), and she'd be a great candidate, but I can't see her winning (if the federal party had some real momentum going, rather than the current deadlock, maybe).
07 04 10 JC
142.55.210.11
No Chance for the conservatives here, Keith Milligan the former premier is running, there is no way he's going to lose.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Joe McGuire may be retiring, but this is a very safe Liberal riding and has gone Liberal in every election since 1980, even during the 1984 Mulroney landslide. This will stay Liberal. The only interesting thing is due to the lack of incumbent, it may be the Tories strongest riding on the island, but they still won't win it.
07 04 02 Nick J Boragina
74.99.228.118
The Liberals have done well in PEI for a reason, they are moderate. The tories are far more right-wing, but also far more regional and pro-western. Normally this would be a Liberal Lock, but word is that McGuire will be leaving politics, and that could open the possibility for a local tory to run here and steal this riding away. While it's possible, I just dont see it.



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