6:46 PM 09/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:01 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Kelowna-Lake Country
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Ron Cannan
Kevin M. Hagglund
Vern Nielsen
Green Party/Parti Vert
Angela Reid
Canadian Action
David Thomson

Werner Schmidt

2004 Result:
Werner Schmidt
Vern Nielsen
Starleigh Grass
Kevin Ade
Huguette Plourde
Michael Cassidyne-Hook

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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08 01 06 Vortigern
Cannan will win here, though it pains me to say it. The core right-wing vote is at least 40%, while a Liberal hasn't been elected here since 1968.
That said, Cannan is not the incumbent, and lacks the lingering Reform/Alliance populist appeal that contributed somewhat to Werner Schmidt's last victory. Furthermore, he has received negative press for his Christian-right viewpoint, and that will turn off some voters.
The NDP is probably best poised to gain that populist support, having a new candidate, improved optimism in BC overall, and an experienced campaign team. Cracking 20%, and even challenging for second place, is within NDP reach, even if winning isn't at the moment.
26 12 05 love, sydney
No change here, but as mentioned below by M.Lunn and Old Man, there is some minor transformation which will make this at least interesting. Cannan has rightly been acknowledged for his strong evangelical base, which could be enough to lock this up. But there are some red tories and red Reformers (who would have thunk it?) who are not so impressed with the biblical tone that the Harper Conservatives are taking. The social conservativism is not their idea of progressive change; and the current positive economic climate in the BC, especially in the okanagan where many of the mainlanders are finding nirvana, is seen as something the Martin team has helped promote. Add also a strong second-time contender in Nielsen and you have what could be a closer race -- still Blue but the margin shrunk to 5,000 votes.
20 12 05 M. Lunn
Okay, lets drop this ridiculous prediction of an NDP win. Even during the 1988 federal election or 1991 provincial election when almost all the interior went NDP this area didn't. In fact the NDP has never won here and likely won't even come close. I would say the Liberals have a better chance of winning this than the NDP, but I suspect the Conservatives will win, followed by the Liberals having a decent second place showing and the NDP coming in a distant third. Not all provincial NDP voters will go NDP federally. The provincial NDP usually gets 10-15% higher than their federal counterparts so if the BC NDP couldn't even get a third of the popular vote provincially, they certainly won't win this federally. Not all BC Liberals will go Conservative, but they bulk of them will while the federal Liberals will draw equally from the BC Liberals and BC NDP and the NDP will rely solely on the BC NDP vote, but get less.
19 12 05 WM
Okay, so it's unlikely that Kevin Hagglund of the NDP will win. But the Conservatives shouldn't take this riding for granted: in the provincial election of May 17th this year, the NDP candidates got almost a third of the vote. In Kelowna-Lake Country (the northern part of the federal riding), the Liberal candidate got 50.37% to the NDP's 30.40% (the Green candidate got 10.45%) on 55% turnout. In Kelowna-Mission (the southern part of the federal riding), the Liberal incumbent got 53.75% to the NDP challenger's 31.82% (the Greens picked up 12.85%) on 57% turnout. Ron Cannan will alienate many because of his extreme views. Vern Nielsen ran a good race last time, but will suffer because of fatigue with the federal Liberals. Still, I'd predict a closer race than other posters here assume.
30 11 05 soul
I recall during the run-up to the 1997 election a Christian acquaintance of mine explained to me how "Pastor Fred" had "laid hands" on Werner Schmidt and prayed that "The Lord" be with him so that he could realise a "Godly Vision" for Canada. Thus this acquaintance was convinced that God had chosen Werner Schmidt to lead us as we awaited the return of Christ (a serious belief in Kelowna). It was interesting to see how someone (he probably wasn't alone) could be so easily manipulated by a little religious magic by the alter. However, on top of being a relatively conservative town as it is, a lot of people in Kelowna will vote for someone based on their religious belief and as a result, with a christian candidate the conservatives have secured a big chunk of the vote that actually votes. While some of the old school fiscal conservative/social progressive's in town may be turned off by the religious school, it is very hard for them to vote liberal. Thus it becomes, as I have heard one person put it, "a plug your nose and vote" situation.
02 10 05 old white man
This constituency will be an example of the polarization of Stephen Harper conservatism. Harper's alliance with the evangelical christian movement is causing concern amongst not only the 'middle of the road' voters but even the conservative base. When we speak of the conservative base we mean the conservative party of Mackay, Clark, Klein, Harris, Lord, Orchard etc. A broad cross section of progressive and social conservatism.
Ron Cannan was elected by the Kelowna christian community not the conservative base. He defeated a candidate backed by the business community (social moderate) and the 'Mayor' of Kelowna (progressive moderate). Remember that I didn't speak of Cannan as a 'moralist', it was the Mayor of Kelowna that used that label.
In the next federal election and I believe especially in this constituency, the 'Tories' will be 'split' and 'torn' by the choices. I admit that the next federal election will be a 'watershed' because of this polarization.
The comparison to the Campbell 'Liberals' in each provincial election must be qualified by the fact that a liberal candidate like Judy Tyabji was elected in Kelowna. Hence my underlying comment that alternatives and choice determine the results of elections.
What does it say about the Harper conservative party in BC when there is an admission that Weston, Reid, Dalton and Silver will not be elected. Extend that same comment to the rest of Canada, where christian evangelical candidates were nominated in Alberta, Ontario and the Maritimes.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Contrary to white Old White man says, this is a very strong Conservative riding, not one the Conservatives won due to protest votes. That may be the case with ridings like Southern Interior, but not Kelowna. The NDP has never won this one and the liberals federally haven't won it since 1968 when the PCs were shut out of BC. And even provincially the BC Liberals (who are to the right of the federal liberals) took the two Kelowna ridings by a landslide, so this is conservative territory. Ronald Cannan may be a liability to the Conservatives, but he will still win. At least John Weston, Darrel Reid, Cindy Silver, and Marc Dalton will lose their ridings.
21 08 05 old white man
I was growing up in Lethbridge Alberta in the early seventy's, when Werner Schmidt was the President of the Lethbridge Community College and when he ran as a Social Credit candidate in elections in Lethbridge. He was very unsuccessful as a candidate in the 'bible belt of Alberta' and additionally his political activities included Leader of the Alberta Social Credit Party from 1973 to 1975.
I would suggest that many western ridings in Canadian elections likely continue to mindlessly elect SocialCredit?Reform?Alliance?Conservative candidates as a protest vote against eastern Canada more than anything. Protest social conservative votes in middled sized urban communities like Kelowna and Lethbridge continue to perpetuate themselves because of no viable, reasonable alternatives.
However the growing trend of neo conservatives, especially social conservatives and the religious right being nominated in BC constituencies will result in a back lash against the 'mix of religion and politics'.
There is a reason why the 'polls' are not improving for the Stephen Harpers and the Conservative party in BC.
Now remember when I 'grew up' in Lethbridge, part of my upbringing was fundamentalist religious education and a mature understanding of fundamental religious principles. The activism of neo conservatives is purely and simply from the religious perspective.
Illustrate the nomination of Ron Cannan. His political perspectives include a 'fostering of the respect for life', 'moralistic' meaning judgemental, and a "Godly vision for our country'.
While most media analysts believe that he will be elected and join the 50% of the Conservative caucus that are religious social conservatives, I would suggest that moderate, middle of the road citizens will gravitate away from 'religious right' candidates.
08 05 05 Nick Boragina
It's been decades since a non tory (or right-winger) has won here. This is one of the historic right-wing ridings that many tories wish existed in their province. I cannot see any liberal gains this time around in this riding by anyone, there is no candidate they can run that will be strong enough to take this riding away, unfortunatly. This riding should stay tory unless something compleatly catostrophic were to happen.
03 05 05 hatman
Kelowna is more of a right wing riding, and will remain that way. The tories will get about 25,000 votes here while the Liberals get 10,000 and the NDP 9,000. The only race in this riding will be fore 2nd place. Even in 1988 this went for the Tories.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
This riding has always elected right wing parties ever since 1968. Even with Werner Schmidt retiring, this will stay Conservative come next federal election, although the provincial liberals (un-affiliated with the federal liberals) will win both Kelowna ridings in the provincial election on May 17th.

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