08 03 25	R.O. 209.91.149.59
Well it’s a little early for me to make a solid prediction here but I can say one thing this riding will get a lot more comments than the last election when it looked like liberal mp Reg Alcock was going to hold the seat only to fall on election night. Well that is now a couple of years ago and Rob Bruinooge has been an mp in the conservative government. The liberals will be running former Charleswood st james candidate John Loewen. For now I’d give a slight advantage to the mp as conservatives have a lot of support in Manitoba and liberals seem to not have as much as previous years. They held 5 seats in Winnipeg as recently as 2000 but now only hold 2.
	08 02 17	A.S. 99.233.96.153
National trends mean everything here: it's either a one-time fluke of the nth degree, or an endorsement of the Conservative government status quo in which Bruinooge is but a cipher. Basically, we're facing a tug-of-war across the Red River; either Saint Boniface drags WSC into the Red Red, or WSC drags Saint Boniface into the Blue Red. Or, puff, pant, a draw. (Provincially, though, this southward stretch of the 'Peg has ducked the question by going more Doer NDP with each election.)
	08 02 06	A. Lewis 142.177.99.116
‘This riding leans Liberal and had Reg Alcock spent more than 2 days campaigning in his own riding, he probably would have won.’ That's absolutely correct. Alcock was a solid performer and him not running in 2008/9 is a very major loss for the Liberals and Canada. An ex-PC without a national presence isn't going to take this from an incumbent without a major shift to the Liberals that probably wouldn't affect Manitoba anyway. The national party's focus might be elsewhere in both parties but I give this to the incumbent just due to the morale factor.
	08 02 03	James C 142.161.248.4
As one person pointed out, I called it almost exactly one week before last election. So now I am making my prediction again. This time, I see the Liberals stealing the seat by 300-400 votes. People are going back to the Liberals this time . It will be a race to watch , but you heard it here first, a Liberal victory, as long as there are no major screw-ups by Dion.
	07 11 04	Rebel 99.246.104.177
Dear binriso...I fear you are becoming as much a predictor of Liberal victories as I often am for Conservatives. As often as not, I suppose we will both be right but I do challenge your hopes for Winnipeg South. The defeat of Reg Alcock in 2006 was possible the biggest shocker of the election. I had no clue it might happen. Substituting a defeated ex-PC MLA for Alcock can only begin a strategy of despair. Now I see an election coming only next Spring...after another budget and when last week's income tax reduction is 'in the mail'. I am still trying to figure out where Dion will run best (BC is arguable), but I have little difficulty in anticipating that it will not be in Manitoba. With a giant-killing incumbent MP locally and with an official opposition in some disarray nationally and especially in Manitoba, I would see Bruinooge's winning margin increase to the 2,500-3,000 range or maybe more.
	07 10 26	Buhay 68.145.31.163
I just attended Dion's gathering in Winnipeg the other week. Most of the attendees were Liberals who clapped at every point Dion made, but it was a public (and free) gathering so I decided to go. At the meeting, Loewen was the MC and I was able to ask him a couple questions after Dion's speech. I asked Loewen what the state of his campaign was and he said they were just starting to recruit volunteers - not bad for an unelected politician who doesn't know when the election is. The problem was that his public speaking ability and confidence seemed lacking and I actually thought he was a rookie candidate, not a failed former candidate and party-switching MLA (I didn't realize he switched ridings). On the other hand, I know the current Tory MP and I know he's a solid campaigner who not only beat out a sitting cabinet minister in the last election but is now part of a popular gov't. Bruinooge started campaigning before the election was called last time as well and from what he told me, had well-worn shoes and tires traveling the riding. Comparing the two candidates (and not to mention what would happen if there was a strong NDP candidate too), I would give this riding to the Conservatives.
	07 10 11	Stevo 70.53.77.221
The #1 biggest election-night 2006 shocker. Nothing else comes close to Rod Bruinooge's out-of-right-field taking down of Reg Alcock - not an easy man to take down, electorally or, given his girth, literally. Hats off to the commentator ‘James C’ in the 2006 thread for this riding, who called the result in Winnipeg South almost exactly, one week prior to the vote. I doubt that John Loewen's candidacy will make much of a difference - a previous failed federal candidate and party-hopper, his time in the provincial legislature becoming more distant with each passing year. I won't call this one with no federal election yet in sight, but Bruinooge's chances of re-election look very promising. You can expect Harper to be in Winnipeg fairly regularly whenever the next election is called.
	07 10 02	Nick J Boragina 74.14.23.192
In the US they talk about the sophomore advantage. The idea that your first re-election bid is when you get your highest vote total. The closest we get to that in Canada is the first election following a David victory against Goliath. Alcock was a Goliath, and now that David has won, he is the incumbent. Liberals will remember the horrible shock of losing and will have some fear and doubt in their mind when campaigning the next time around. Unless there is a move in the polls towards the Liberals, this riding will only see the gap increase. There is no Goliath this time, and the incumbent is from the other party. That spells another CPC win.
	07 09 25	binriso 156.34.212.190
Here's some simple logic for the previous poster: If you are close in a riding, you pursue a stronger candidate with much more effort than in a lost cause like Crowfoot. 111 votes is pretty damn close and the Liberals will clearly put alot of effort into taking this back. Not to mention polls show that no one is going anywhere above 35% recently, Liberal numbers are about equal from last election, hardly failing support. Most of them show the CPC down a bit too. Now obviously Quebec by-election results give them momentum, but that cannot affect Manitoba ridings overly much, and its just momentum not actual votes. And guess what? The Liberals found their strong candidate, former PC MLA John Loewen who although lost by quite a bit in 2006, was facing Stephen Fletcher in Charleswood St James Assiniboia. His old constituency Fort Whyte is actually in Winnipeg South too (or at least partly) so he'll have at least a few loyalists from his days as an MLA. Not to mention, every other riding (besides Fort Whyte) in Winnipeg South provincially are now held by the left of center NDP, possible bad news for the right of center CPC. Also, this is likely number 1 on the Liberal targetting list(Parry Sound Muskoka's closer result was more because of the popularity of the local MP) and Winnipeg South was the 2nd closest loss for the Liberals in Canada. There is no doubt they will go after this seat aggressively and I think they will win. However, it is true that Liberal momentum is sagging after the by-election loss in Quebec and the low showings in the 2 outside Montreal and Dion's leadership is being questioned and the party is becoming more divided. Only if the campaign goes very poorly for the Liberals(ie alot worse than 06) will the CPC will hold here. If it goes similar to 06(and Loewen campaigns alot in the riding, or at least more than Reg Alcock) or better, the Liberals will win. Not to mention since its creation its been mostly Liberal wins here about 2x as many years as the CPC/PC/Unionists.
	07 09 15	24.81.18.126
‘Id have to say this one will go back to the Liberals next election, it was won by 100 votes in an election with a blue surge and a red fall. It'll be close but the Liberals will most likely put a lot of effort and a strong candidate to take this one back.’ -- Birinsio Birinsio, you make it sound like it's so easy to recruit a strong candidate into ridings. It's a lot of work, and will be difficult for the Liberals especially in the opposition status and falling support. Also, the Liberals are seriously lacking in funding. The Conservatives fundraised 10 times more than the Liberals did. With Dion at the helm, I see very little chance of a ‘red surge’, but in fact backlash. The Conservatives' momentum will be at full force come election day, and Rod Bruinooge has been a very decent MP, and a potential contender for cabinet, especially in the Indian Affairs portfolio. He will be re-elected, but it will be a fight for sure.
	07 06 08	binriso 156.34.226.75
Id have to say this one will go back to the Liberals next election, it was won by 100 votes in an election with a blue surge and a red fall. It'll be close but the Liberals will most likely put a lot of effort and a strong candidate to take this one back.
	07 03 29	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
This riding leans Liberal and had Reg Alcock spent more than 2 days campaigning in his own riding, he probably would have won. However, now with the Tories having the incumbent advantage, a lot will depend on how they do nationally. If they get a majority or a stronger minority government this should stay Conservative, but if they lose or win a weaker minority, this should return to the Liberal fold.