12:03 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:42 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Winnipeg South
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Reg Alcock
Rod Bruinooge
Christian Heritage
Heidi Loewen-Steffano
Robert Page
Wesley Owen Whiteside

Hon. Reg Alcock

2004 Result:
Reg Alcock
Rod Bruinooge
Catherine Green
Ron Cameron
Jane MacDiarmid

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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15 01 06 James C
I think everyone will be shocked when the results come in. I have come across some very solid polling data and this race is neck and neck. With the liberals melting down everyday and the conservative candidate just starting a massive advertising campaign, this riding may fall by 100 votes or less. This will be the riding to watch come election night. Reg Alcock's blunder about the EI surplus not ever existing the other day did not help him at all.
14 01 06 Bear and Ape
UNLIKE Goodale, who has been a minister since 1993, Alcock was locked out of the Chretien cabinet (though he did hold a parliamentary secretay position). Now he's some money-man in the Martin government, high-profile, yadda-yadda, blah-blah. So what? Voters had no trouble getting rid of other cabinet ministers in 2004. Bob Speller, David Pratt and Stan Keyes come to mind. So don't think a cabinet position ensures re-election. What does ensure re-election is personal popularity and party platform. Problem is, in 2004, though he actually won, it was only about 6000 votes. The Tory machine is doing very well, and although we do not think Reg will be ousted, it might be uncomfortably close this time. If things keep getting worse for the Liberals, it could be even TCTC...who would have though?!
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Similar dynamics to Goodale, for a similar guy. Alcock was locked out of the Chretien cabinet and way out of the loop on Adscam. No problems there.
Treasury Board Secretariat is a serious position. Alcock is the government's "inside man" and its only real expert in e-government. He can go toe to toe with "laptop Layton" on those issues, and Alcock's smarter. Even Alcock's family (his sister notably) work in this field. His Service Canada plan will move a lot of jobs out of Ottawa, and it could very easily move some to Winnipeg. He'll stay in for that reason, and because if Goodale falls in the scandal, Alcock's a shoo-in for the finance ministry.
24 11 05 Craig
Liberal hold although narrower. Being a suburban riding, the left-wing policies of the NDP aren't terribly popular here, but neither does Bush-style social conservatism really fly here like in rural Manitoba. Having a cabinet minister in Reg Alcock will also help out, even if he may lose the cabinet post. Predicted results: LIB 43%, CPC 36%, NDP 16%, GRN 4%, others 1%.
01 10 05 M. Lunn
Hugh McFayden, the Conservative candidate has stepped down to contest Fort Whyte in the next provincial by-election after John Leowen jumped to the federal liberals. I suspect his decision to run provincially has a lot do with the fact he knows he has a good chance at winning Fort Whyte which is a safe provincial PC riding, while virtually no chance of winning federally. Winnipeg South is a blue liberal area where many people vote PC provincially and liberal federally so John Leowen's switch is probably representative of a large chunk of this riding's population. He also might not be comfortable with Stephen Harper, but simply doesn't want to be called all the nasty names others who have questioned Harper's leadership have.
24 06 05 Mathias
As much as I can't stand Reg Alcock, I have to admit he will almost certainly win this riding. It is a riding dominated by groups like university students and recent immigrants to the country which are groups that tend to vote Liberal. Also, the sponsorship scandal doesn't seem to be harming the Liberals as much anymore so I give this riding to Alcock.
04 06 05 Greg P
This one is going to be a lot closer then one would normally think. Hugh McFadyen is a very strong candidate; having worked closely with Sam Katz (who did very well in this area in the 2004 election to replace Glen Murray) may attract some of the historic Liberal support in this area. Add to that Reg's gene pool comments, and that makes it a toss-up.
As "Tory Insider" said, Reg has a defence to Adscam (and will not be personally tainted, although the Liberal name has been somewhat tarnished), and he is an incumbent cabinet member, which gives him an automatic boost in the polls (not to mention, the ability to try to direct some tax dollars to this riding, prior to the next election).
It may have been better for Reg to go to the polls in June, as opposed to the fall/winter - Hugh has a lot of time to assemble his campaign team, and will be getting ready for what will likely be the last riding in Manitoba to be called on election night.
10 05 05 Tory Insider
Reg's best defense is that he was on the "outs" with the Chretien gang and subsequently is not tainted with Adscam. Reg has been at the trough (no pun intended) for quite some time here and has a strong following.
Look for the result to be much closer if Hugh McFadyen wins the Conservative nomination. He will be able to assemble a better team than Bruinooge and has more political experience. Hugh is more centrist and will snag some more traditional progressive conservative support. Hope his big name friends help out...
07 05 05 TC
Reg Alcock has been eating crow lately on his Gene Pool comment, this will not help him at all. With a fairly close result last time, I expect this to be prime Conservative pick up territory
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Reg Alcock, regardless of what one thinks of him will be re-elected. This may be a well to do riding, but most people here do not support the social conservatism prevalent in the Conservative Party. In the long-run the Conservatives may have a good shot at taking this riding as the social conservatism continues to wane within the party, but I still think they have a ways to go. It will probably be a bit closer, but Reg Alcock will still win.

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