Prediction Changed
10:38 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Barnes, Dave
New Democratic
Bouché, John
Christian Heritage
Dondo, Jerome
Gallagher, Lisa
Tweed, Merv
Willard, Martha Jo

Merv Tweed

2006 Result:
Merv Tweed **
Bob Senff
Murray Downing
Brad Bird
Mike Volek
Colin Atkins
Lisa Gallagher

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 04 M. G.
The Conservatives will win this riding, again. The Liberals or the NDP could mount a successful challenge if they put significant resources into Brandon-Souris, but they create a self-fulfilling prophecy of defeat by only putting up token support.
08 09 27 Interested, Not PArtisan
It's very interesting that no one has made any posts since the last election. That tells you a lot! It's pretty much a given that Merv Tweed will take the riding. He has the base, history and organization and he is running in a naturally conservative area. Despite this, everyone recognizes he does not have much clout in Ottawa. On top of that, the opposition parties don’t have the essential momentum to mount a serious challenge. Compared to Conservatives, most signs are Green Party. It will be interesting to see if they pull ahead of the Liberals who have been pretty much a disaster.
08 02 24 A.S.
Who *would* Rick Borotsik be supporting, anyway (if anyone)? The fact that he's now representing a ‘Conservative’ party in the Manitoba legislature might be, in spite of himself, validation enough. Still, there's no way how this seat will ‘provide the best results for the Conservatives in all of Manitoba’: the presence of Brandon, Manitoba's ‘second city’ and long either in part or in whole a provincial NDP stronghold (which even Borotsik had to squint his way through to win), sees to that. Oh sure, the ‘united right’ might technically have been tops in Manitoba here in '97 and '00; but Borotsik's big tent skews that figure...
07 10 23 Ancastarian
Rick Borotsik's old stomping grounds. Back in 2000 this riding went PC with the Alliance a couple of % away. Now that the parties are united, this bedrock conservative riding might provide the best results for the Conservatives in all of Manitoba!
07 10 02 Nick J Boragina
The Souris' ridings (in Saskatchewan and one in Manitoba) are some of the strongest small-c conservative ridings in the country. I think the fact that in 2000 a Tory won in a riding the CA came second in, is a sign that The CPC win against a no-name Liberal or no-name NDPer. When it comes to these things, party names are like brand names, and people here like their MP's ‘Conservative’ not ‘Presidents Choice Liberal’ or ‘Our Compliments NDP’
07 04 02 M. Lunn
A very safe conservative seat. In both 1997 and 2000, the PCs and Alliance battled it out for first and second place. Now it is true Rick Borotsik doesn't support the Conservatives, but outside of Brandon, it appears the Conservatives have pretty much held all the votes from before.
07 03 19 no
Slam dunk rural Tory riding.

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